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Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

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coolbeans said:
Mnementh said:

And Bullock is out: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/02/politics/steve-bullock-2020-campaign-ends/index.html

Literally who 'dis?

(May become a running theme for me)

You can say it some times more, as still more people are running than are out. We could bet, if the list of drop-outs is bigger or smaller than the list of runnign candidates, when Iowa comes and I have a strong feeling it might be bigger. Iowa itself though will be the end of a many campaigns.



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Mnementh said:
coolbeans said:

Literally who 'dis?

(May become a running theme for me)

You can say it some times more, as still more people are running than are out. We could bet, if the list of drop-outs is bigger or smaller than the list of runnign candidates, when Iowa comes and I have a strong feeling it might be bigger. Iowa itself though will be the end of a many campaigns.

I can see Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Gabbard, and Yang sticking it out until the end. And I guess Harris too but after super tuesday I doubt it.

Last edited by tsogud - on 02 December 2019

 

tsogud said:

Mnementh said:

You can say it some times more, as still more people are running than are out. We could bet, if the list of drop-outs is bigger or smaller than the list of runnign candidates, when Iowa comes and I have a strong feeling it might be bigger. Iowa itself though will be the end of a many campaigns.

I can see Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Gabbard, and Yang sticking it out until the end. And I guess Harris too but after super tuesday I doubt it.

Nah, Kamala is done. The people who will probably pus through to the end will be Bernie(momentum grassroots etc on his side, most loyal voter base), Biden (he'll fade after the first 2 states when SC doesn't save him that's my prediction), Warren(? I personally think she's done but can't exactly count her out yet), Pete (Depends on the media inflation of his actual polling but we'll see, I don't see him being out near the front tho), Gabbard (Unpredictable), Yang (Also Unpredictable).

But yea I think going into the convention we'll most likely see

Bernie (most delegates, possible nominee if he's able to hit the threshold before the convention to avoid a contested one, superdelegates already planned a coup against him so yea)

Biden (not sure where he'll stand. He might be 2nd, he might be 3rd he might even be 4th but I don't think he'll do as well as people think)

Warren (Since her appealing to both sides strat has been failing and she's pretty much got nothing left to stand on I don't know. I legit only see her fading more as people can't stand liars)

Pete (The Media Darling and I think he's the final one. They might go between him and Warren from time to time but he's never going to get the black vote. We've seen the scandals, we've seen the way he's spoken to us. 0% with black people. You're not winning ****. Only a threat in mostly white upper middle class communities tbh will also get the biggest L ever if he went up against trump)

Tulsi (I have literally no idea how this will play out, She'll definitely outperform the polls and I hope to god her + Bernie is 51% of the vote atleast)

Yang (Truly unpredictable. He's done a lot of questionable things such as lying about his support for m4a and falsely advertising that he supports it, is also considering (if he hasn't already) doing big money fundraisers and is even considering working with Biden. However, he voted for Bernie in 2016 so while I don't trust him maybe if he does go all the way to the convention he might pledge his delegates with Bernie, I have no clue on him at all)

But these will be the last 6 standing.

Last edited by uran10 - on 02 December 2019

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Some interesting article to note: https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/02/peter-daou-clinton-aide-sanders-2020-074723

And for the fun game who holds out until when:

Staying the full primaries I can see Biden, Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg.

Candidates that hold out at least until Super Tuesday (and then may drop out based on the results) are Kamala Harris and Michael Bloomberg.

Candidates I see holding out until Iowa are John Delaney, Amy Klobuchar, Deval Patrick and Tom Steyer.

I am very uncertain about Yang and Gabbard. It is possible they hold out until Iowa, although it is also possible they drop before. I can't see them hold out the whole primary. Also a big uncertainty is Cory Booker. I don't know what his plan is at all.

Candidates I see dropping out before Iowa are Marianne Williamson and Julian Castro. Michael Bennet and Joe Sestak might also drop out before Iowa, but I am not sure why they are still in the race at all.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

Mnementh said:

Some interesting article to note: https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/02/peter-daou-clinton-aide-sanders-2020-074723

And for the fun game who holds out until when:

Staying the full primaries I can see Biden, Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg.

Candidates that hold out at least until Super Tuesday (and then may drop out based on the results) are Kamala Harris and Michael Bloomberg.

Candidates I see holding out until Iowa are John Delaney, Amy Klobuchar, Deval Patrick and Tom Steyer.

I am very uncertain about Yang and Gabbard. It is possible they hold out until Iowa, although it is also possible they drop before. I can't see them hold out the whole primary. Also a big uncertainty is Cory Booker. I don't know what his plan is at all.

Candidates I see dropping out before Iowa are Marianne Williamson and Julian Castro. Michael Bennet and Joe Sestak might also drop out before Iowa, but I am not sure why they are still in the race at all.

Good call.  In fact, he dropped yesterday.



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Biden, Sanders, and Warren will be in this until the end unless one of their campaigns crashes spectacularly. Buttigieg I still don't see as having much of a chance, so there will come a time where that becomes too painfully obvious and he has to drop out. Harris will be out after California when she doesn't even make the top 3, possibly doesn't get any delegates at all. Bloomberg and Steyer will do it until they get bored, because they have nothing better to do and essentially infinite funding so no other incentives to stop. Deval Patrick I'm not sure, because he seems to have an absolute nothing campaign as it stands and jumping into the race at this point was pretty delusional on his part. Gabbard has nothing better to do so she'll continue until she runs out of money. Yang is one candidate whose campaign has not yet peaked, so it's hard to say how far he'll go, he could be out before Super Tuesday, or he might last longer and have a similar fate to Buttigieg. Everyone else is irrelevant and will drop out either before or immediately after Iowa. Booker and Klobochar will probably be after-Iowa dropouts, unless they really start to struggle financially. Bennet might be before Iowa. Delaney and Williamson and Castro could all go either way, depending on what suits their ego. Really that could be said of any of the remaining candidates. Sestak and Bullock dropped out now because they're less embarrassed at the idea of dropping out before Iowa than they are of the idea of getting 0% in Iowa.

Sestak, why the hell did you even waste your time? I'd say you wasted everyone's time, but no one noticed you were there so you really only wasted your own.



ruior said:

So... to break the ice a bit....

I wonder if any of the posters on this conversation are russian fake personas... we all know how they operate on chats/foruns/etc and try to mold opinions online.

It would be a nice place to influence innocent minds.

Does that question cross your mind when debating American politics online?

Bye and have a good week! ;)

That's pretty rich coming from a guy with 9 posts. How do we know YOU'RE not the Russian bot? After all the Clintons are pretty friendly with Russians. 

This is the type of response of someone who has zero argument, so they must discredit people posing real arguments by *literally* dehumanizing them. 

Last edited by DarthMetalliCube - 2 days ago


And with this poll Yang should be qualified for the next debate.



jason1637 said:

And with this poll Yang should be qualified for the next debate.

Noice. Maybe they'll give him more than like 4 mins to discuss and try to explain his radically different ideas for the country this time. Dude just needs to make his own podcast or something and abandon this antiquated format of TV debates, it's old hat and limiting and independent media is the future anyway.

Shit, I heard the latest Dem debates had like 6.5 million views. Even the Rogan podcast with Yang alone had 4.5 million hits. The one with Bernie had 10 million. Recent one with Tulsi already has had 2.8 million. 

Last edited by DarthMetalliCube - on 03 December 2019

Mnementh said:

And Bullock is out: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/02/politics/steve-bullock-2020-campaign-ends/index.html

Sestak also, apparently. Haven't seen anybody writing about that here, yet. And he even left the race a day earlier than Bullock, I might add: 

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/01/politics/joe-sestak-2020-campaign/index.html