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Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

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Mnementh said:
Tim Ryan endorsed Joe Biden. Not the most surprising move in my opinion, I always felt like Ryan was running more or less in Bidens lane.
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/13/tim-ryan-endorses-joe-biden-democratic-primary-070405

Hmm, with Ryan endorsing Biden, I have been thinking about the other dropped out candidates. Who might they endorse? Well, Gravel has given his endorsement to Bernie Sanders and Tulsi Gabbard. Apart from him and Ryan has no one endorsed someone as far as I know.

So here some random fun guesses:

Richard Ojeda: will support Bernie Sanders again, like in 2016

Kirsten Gillibrand: a bit difficult, but I have the feeling she will fall into camp Warren

Jay Inslee: probably someone with a good climate change plan, I think it might be Sanders

Eric Swalwell: He will hand the torch back to Joe Biden.

John Hickenlooper: I have the feeling - without any reasoning at all - he might support Klobuchar.

Bill de Blasio: Not easy to guess, but I think he will go into Warrens camp.

Beto O'Rourke: Really a wildcard. He could endorse pretty much anyone. I just say *throws dice* Kamala Harris.

What are your guesses?



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Mnementh said:
Mnementh said:
Tim Ryan endorsed Joe Biden. Not the most surprising move in my opinion, I always felt like Ryan was running more or less in Bidens lane.
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/13/tim-ryan-endorses-joe-biden-democratic-primary-070405

Hmm, with Ryan endorsing Biden, I have been thinking about the other dropped out candidates. Who might they endorse? Well, Gravel has given his endorsement to Bernie Sanders and Tulsi Gabbard. Apart from him and Ryan has no one endorsed someone as far as I know.

So here some random fun guesses:

Richard Ojeda: will support Bernie Sanders again, like in 2016

Kirsten Gillibrand: a bit difficult, but I have the feeling she will fall into camp Warren

Jay Inslee: probably someone with a good climate change plan, I think it might be Sanders

Eric Swalwell: He will hand the torch back to Joe Biden.

John Hickenlooper: I have the feeling - without any reasoning at all - he might support Klobuchar.

Bill de Blasio: Not easy to guess, but I think he will go into Warrens camp.

Beto O'Rourke: Really a wildcard. He could endorse pretty much anyone. I just say *throws dice* Kamala Harris.

What are your guesses?

My guess is that not one of them that have dropped out(besides ojeda) that hasn't endorsed already will endorse Bernie. The smart ones will wait and see and endorse after the primary is decided. Endorsing the anti-establishment candidate as an establishment figure is death to their careers and that's all they'll be thinking about.



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uran10 said:
Mnementh said:

Hmm, with Ryan endorsing Biden, I have been thinking about the other dropped out candidates. Who might they endorse? Well, Gravel has given his endorsement to Bernie Sanders and Tulsi Gabbard. Apart from him and Ryan has no one endorsed someone as far as I know.

So here some random fun guesses:

Richard Ojeda: will support Bernie Sanders again, like in 2016

Kirsten Gillibrand: a bit difficult, but I have the feeling she will fall into camp Warren

Jay Inslee: probably someone with a good climate change plan, I think it might be Sanders

Eric Swalwell: He will hand the torch back to Joe Biden.

John Hickenlooper: I have the feeling - without any reasoning at all - he might support Klobuchar.

Bill de Blasio: Not easy to guess, but I think he will go into Warrens camp.

Beto O'Rourke: Really a wildcard. He could endorse pretty much anyone. I just say *throws dice* Kamala Harris.

What are your guesses?

My guess is that not one of them that have dropped out(besides ojeda) that hasn't endorsed already will endorse Bernie. The smart ones will wait and see and endorse after the primary is decided. Endorsing the anti-establishment candidate as an establishment figure is death to their careers and that's all they'll be thinking about.

Well, I guess Inslee can, considering that the climate change is already his raison d'être. Gillibrand and Harris also could get away supporting Warren by just pointing out they are supporting fellow women. But the rest will probably support either Biden or Buttigieg.



jason1637 said:

Last early state poll from MC

Latest one I posted earlier.

You could argue that Biden supporters are migrating towards Buttigieg and Sanders supporters are migrating towards Warren. 

I agree with you on Pete Buttigieg for sure. I mean if you look at the demographic breakdown of his supporters, you'll find that, in some crucial respects, they have more in common with Joe Biden's supporters than those of anyone else. Namely, they're predominantly self-described moderate voters who are over the age of 45. There's only other major candidate with that sort an age skew in terms of support, and that other candidate just happens to be losing some ground at the same time that Mayor Pete is ascending. Hard to write that off as coincidence.

I think there's also been some competition for younger voters between Warren and Sanders going on for sure, although Sanders is clearly winning that battle overall and Warren isn't so dependent on a single generation. I wouldn't say that the last month has been good to Warren in the polling average though. She needs another debate. On the fortunate side for her though, another one is now less than a week away.



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One possible eventuality I'm thinking of based on current trends:

-Biden carries most of the South and Far West.
-Buttigieg and Sanders split the Midwest.
-Warren carries most of the Northeast.
-End result: Biden wins.

Why is this a possibility, you ask? Well think of it in terms of where the respective candidate's strengths lie: Biden is routinely the most popular candidate among voters of color broadly, and they're his most loyal supporters, so that advantages him over everyone else in the disproportionately African American South and the disproportionately Latino and Asian-American Far West broadly. The Midwest, in contrast, is getting older and whiter over time because the youth are leaving. That favors candidates who are popular among older white voters and Mayor Pete is currently emerging as a force among specifically older Midwestern white working class and middle-income voters (actually faring worst among wealthier ones at present), and I think the fact that Pete Buttigieg is actually from that part of the country would also help him regionally. On the other hand, there are also, I believe, a number of states that vote by caucus instead of by regular primary in the Midwest, and that process tends to favor activists over regular working people who might not have day off to invest 8 hours waiting around to vote, and Bernie Sanders clearly has the most activist support, so he could win in most of the caucus states, I suspect. Finally, the Northeast is not only Liz Warren's home turf, but also relies mostly on closed primaries, which structurally advantages her over Sanders throughout most of that area since she's more popular among actual, registered Democrats than Sanders is.

Whatcha think? Is this eventuality plausible at all?



Jaicee said:

One possible eventuality I'm thinking of based on current trends:

-Biden carries most of the South and Far West.
-Buttigieg and Sanders split the Midwest.
-Warren carries most of the Northeast.
-End result: Biden wins.

Why is this a possibility, you ask? Well think of it in terms of where the respective candidate's strengths lie: Biden is routinely the most popular candidate among voters of color broadly, and they're his most loyal supporters, so that advantages him over everyone else in the disproportionately African American South and the disproportionately Latino and Asian-American Far West broadly. The Midwest, in contrast, is getting older and whiter over time because the youth are leaving. That favors candidates who are popular among older white voters and Mayor Pete is currently emerging as a force among specifically older Midwestern white working class and middle-income voters (actually faring worst among wealthier ones at present), and I think the fact that Pete Buttigieg is actually from that part of the country would also help him regionally. On the other hand, there are also, I believe, a number of states that vote by caucus instead of by regular primary in the Midwest, and that process tends to favor activists over regular working people who might not have day off to invest 8 hours waiting around to vote, and Bernie Sanders clearly has the most activist support, so he could win in most of the caucus states, I suspect. Finally, the Northeast is not only Liz Warren's home turf, but also relies mostly on closed primaries, which structurally advantages her over Sanders throughout most of that area since she's more popular among actual, registered Democrats than Sanders is.

Whatcha think? Is this eventuality plausible at all?

I think the momentum carried after Iowa / NH is important. If Biden underperforms there, he might carry SC, but the lack of momentum might spill over to Nevada and later States.

As for the Midwest working class, I consider that a Tossup between all 4. They all have their strengths in the area, one way or the other. I'd put Biden or Warren taking most of those States, with Pete sometimes pulling second place.

The Northeast is interesting. Sanders will win Vermont (and that will be his only State), but New York is up for grabs. If Pete has momentum even he could take it.

Last edited by Moren - on 14 November 2019

I feel like Biden will be very competitive in Northeast states like Pennsylvania and Delaware.



morenoingrato said:
Jaicee said:

One possible eventuality I'm thinking of based on current trends:

-Biden carries most of the South and Far West.
-Buttigieg and Sanders split the Midwest.
-Warren carries most of the Northeast.
-End result: Biden wins.

Why is this a possibility, you ask? Well think of it in terms of where the respective candidate's strengths lie: Biden is routinely the most popular candidate among voters of color broadly, and they're his most loyal supporters, so that advantages him over everyone else in the disproportionately African American South and the disproportionately Latino and Asian-American Far West broadly. The Midwest, in contrast, is getting older and whiter over time because the youth are leaving. That favors candidates who are popular among older white voters and Mayor Pete is currently emerging as a force among specifically older Midwestern white working class and middle-income voters (actually faring worst among wealthier ones at present), and I think the fact that Pete Buttigieg is actually from that part of the country would also help him regionally. On the other hand, there are also, I believe, a number of states that vote by caucus instead of by regular primary in the Midwest, and that process tends to favor activists over regular working people who might not have day off to invest 8 hours waiting around to vote, and Bernie Sanders clearly has the most activist support, so he could win in most of the caucus states, I suspect. Finally, the Northeast is not only Liz Warren's home turf, but also relies mostly on closed primaries, which structurally advantages her over Sanders throughout most of that area since she's more popular among actual, registered Democrats than Sanders is.

Whatcha think? Is this eventuality plausible at all?

I think the momentum carried after Iowa / NH is important. If Biden underperforms there, he might carry SC, but the lack of momentum might spill over to Nevada and later States.

As for the Midwest working class, I consider that a Tossup between all 4. They all have their strengths in the area, one way or the other. I'd put Biden or Warren taking most of those States, with Pete sometimes pulling second place.

The Northeast is interesting. Sanders will win Vermont (and that will be his only State), but New York is up for grabs. If Pete has momentum even he could take it.

Pretty much this, and that's his biggest problem in my opinion. Harris is leading in both Iowa and New Hampshire, which might slow his campaign down considerably. He's leading in Nevada, but if he slows down Harris and Sanders might also beat him there. He's most probably going to win South Carolina afterwards since his lead is too large (even though Warren is rising there, too), but he is getting beaten by both Warren and Sanders in the latest California polls, which will cost him a lot of delegates, especially if he slows down any further. Even worse, Buttigieg is creeping up on his lane from behind...

On another note, Deval Patrick has now announced his candidacy. As if we needed any more candidates...

On the plus side, reading through his accomplishments, he seems to be more progressive than most other candidates, though still a far cry from Warren and Sanders in that regard.

Small list of his deeds as Governor of Massachusetts, copied from Wikipedia: 

Spoiler!
During his governorship, Patrick oversaw the implementation of the state's 2006 health care reform program which had been enacted under Mitt Romney, increased funding to education and life sciences, won a federal Race to the Top education grant, passed an overhaul of governance of the state transportation function, signing a law to create the Massachusetts Department of Transportation, increased the state sales tax from 5% to 6.25%, and raised the state's minimum wage from $8 per hour to $11 by 2017. Under Patrick, Massachusetts joined the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) in an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the planned introduction of casinos in Massachusetts

So yeah, not the worst possible candidate, but there are better alternatives imo.



UPDATE: Deval Patrick has been added to the list.

I do find it ironic that he is entering the race because Democratic voters are undecided who they want.



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