Trump is toast!
He's pretty much toast. The only thing that can go wrong is if the Bernie or Bust cult of personality types ramp up their propaganda campaign against the left again.
Honestly, I now think this is true (that Trump is toast). I mean I think people here know that I'm not one who is given to hype and other forms of undue optimism, but there is simply no way of looking at the present situation objectively and concluding that Trump will likely be re-elected. If you want the most compelling evidence there is, just look at the election results we've seen since 2016. The 2017 off-year elections. The 2018 midterms. The 2019 off-year elections. There is a clear pattern here. I mean it's normal for the party opposing that of the president to do well in midterm elections, but it's not as usual for that to continue the following year, historically speaking. And yet it just did. The Trump people have been all "REMEMBER 1998!" about the impeachment proceedings, insisting that the pursuit of Trump's impeachment would be politically devastating to the Democrats. And yet in reality...Tuesday's election results say otherwise. Decidedly.
I'll point you in particular to the result of the Kentucky governor's race, which saw a 30-point swing in the Democratic Party's direction compared to Trump's performance there in 2016! The average swing toward the Democrats in last year's midterm elections, for comparison's sake, was 10 points, and that was good enough for a pick-up of 40 House seats: the biggest midterm-election gain for the Democrats since 1974; the year of Nixon's resignation. And again, this was in Kentucky; not exactly a blue state. Kentucky is among the more rural and whitest states in the country, and also among the poorest. It's not immensely dissimilar from neighboring West Virginia in those ways, especially in the eastern part of the state. Lots of old, run-down coal towns. Kentucky gave Trump his fifth-largest margin of victory in 2016 (30 points) and the governor, Bevin, was elected the preceding year by a similar margin. Bevin went on to reverse the state's Medicaid expansion, throwing countless people off their health insurance, and to try and cut the pension of the state's teachers, among other things. By the end of it all, even the Fraternal Order of Police, an institution not exactly known for their liberal attitudes, had turned on him and he polled as the least popular governor in the country. His personality was frequently compared to that of Trump, and his re-election campaign revolved centrally around his personal friendship with Trump. Trump visited the state to campaign for him and the two of them hyped up the threat of his impeachment as the core motivation for why Bevin deserved to be re-elected even though he has no vote in the matter as a state governor. And he managed to lose, and not just with the urban areas, as you might well expect, but also in the suburbs of the state and even in a number of rural coal towns in the east! The picture you get, inescapably, is that, if anything, Trump and Trumpianness are political liabilites, not assets, in this climate, even in normally-Republican states.
It's not the only extraordinary case we've seen in recent years. Kansas elected a Democratic governor last year too, and Alabama a Democratic Senator the year before that. Individually these sorts of Democratic victories can be explained away as special cases with unique and rare circumstances, but taken together they form a picture; the picture of a president who is consistently unpopular and which is dragging down the party of its association, taking a whole generation of Republicans out with it, much as a certain Rick Wilson (the Never Trump Republican author of the now-famous book "Everything Trump Touches Dies") has always predicted he would.
Here's the real key: Trump won in 2016 without the popular vote, and even that victory was dependent, even in the Republican primaries, on the support of independent voters. Half of independents today tell pollsters that they not only disapprove of the president's job performance, but believe that he should be impeached and removed from office! That's how much the situation has changed. Republicans might love Trump, but they're alone in their affections today and they've become too arrogant and oblivious to figure that out.
There was a survey of voters in key Midwestern states that Trump unexpectedly carried in 2016 or else nearly carried (voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota specifically) conducted by the Cook Political Report and the Kaiser Family Foundation over the course of about a month recently, so this one was particularly extensive and thorough. It found that between 57 and 61% of voters in each of those states disapproves of President Trump's job performance and at least 64% in each state, furthermore, supports the Green New Deal. Across those four states, "defeating President Trump" ranks in as the overall top priority of voters by a wide margin, while "re-electingn President Trump" and "defeating a Democrat" are the combined top voting priorities of only about one-third as many people, by contrast.
One-term presidencies are uncommon, but it's really starting to look like we have one on our hands. Another indicator of that, actually, is the simple fact that, as I pointed out a bit ago, Democrats generally believe Trump will be re-elected. That's actually kind of a good thing. It means that Democrats will be motivated to actually show up and vote next year. Compare to 2016. In 2016, polls showed that Democrats were confident that Clinton would be elected. The result was that they didn't show up and Trump won. By contrast, polls leading up to last year's midterms showed that Democratic voters believed the Republicans would win. The result? The Democratic voters showed up and won an enormous victory. Just as examples. The lesson here is that arrogance is the enemy of victory. Unlike yours truly, many people won't vote if they think victory is likely, so it's actually kind of a good thing that Democratic voters possess this somewhat irrational fear of defeat right now in a way.
All of this points toward the conclusion that we will have a Democratic president in 2021. And quite possibly, just mathematically speaking, also a Democratic Senate. And a situation wherein most governors are Democrats too. I mean usually things down the ballot go the same direction as the presidential election. So I mean I think there is a considerable possibility of the result of next year's election being that essentially a generation of Republican leaders will have been wiped out by the Trump presidency and Democrats will emerge with unified control of the government and the overall prevailing position in American politics generally. THAT situation probably won't last for more than a couple years, but I think it's probably more likely than not to happen. Anyway, point is that, you know, the Republicans are constantly reliving their 2016 victory because it's all they've got to cling to really. Yeah, Trump (technically) won in 2016. And his party hasn't stopped paying for it since. Maybe they'll finally figure something out after he becomes a rare one-term president.
Last edited by Jaicee - on 09 November 2019