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Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

I believe it's been a minute since we've had a breakdown of the polling averages in this thread and ain't no better time than right before the debate.

As of now the real clear politics polling averages of the Democratic primary candidates are:

1. Biden at 27.0%

2. Warren at 20.3%

3. Sanders at 18.8%

4. Buttigieg at 8.3%

5. Harris at 4.8%

6. Yang at 3.0%

The rest of the field are below 2% and I omitted Bloomberg (sitting at 3%) as he's not officially in the running.



 

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tsogud said:

I believe it's been a minute since we've had a breakdown of the polling averages in this thread and ain't no better time than right before the debate.

As of now the real clear politics polling averages of the Democratic primary candidates are:

1. Biden at 27.0%

2. Warren at 20.3%

3. Sanders at 18.8%

4. Buttigieg at 8.3%

5. Harris at 4.8%

6. Yang at 3.0%

The rest of the field are below 2% and I omitted Bloomberg (sitting at 3%) as he's not officially in the running.

I think at this point it is relevant to notice that Buttigieg surged to the front of the field in Iowa. According to RCP for Iowa:

1. Buttigieg at 21%

2. Warren at 18.8%

3. Biden at 17.6%

4. Sanders at 17.2%

5. Klobuchar at 5%

6. Harris at 3.6%

Everyone else below 3%.



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Today:

- I can see the unspoken Warren-Sanders truce being over. While I don't see her going for the offense, I think Sanders might actually benefit if he goes after her successfully.
- Pete will be the most scrutinized candidate of the night. Warren will almost certainly go after him. Klobuchar will go after him. Maybe Booker / Kamala will try to score a couple cheap points with race (they will fail). Anyway, this is the first time Pete will be heavily scrutinized so we need to see how he responds to this pressure.
- Biden, yeah, hopefully he doesn't say something really stupid. It'd be nice if he has a good performance.
- While I don't think Klobu will ever win, she'll try to break from the pack again, bolstered by her admission to the December debate.
- Booker / Kamala / Steyer / Yang: Non-entities.
- Gabbard will say a bunch of hilarious stuff, and I'll make sure to point it out.



morenoingrato said:
Today:

- I can see the unspoken Warren-Sanders truce being over. While I don't see her going for the offense, I think Sanders might actually benefit if he goes after her successfully.
- Pete will be the most scrutinized candidate of the night. Warren will almost certainly go after him. Klobuchar will go after him. Maybe Booker / Kamala will try to score a couple cheap points with race (they will fail). Anyway, this is the first time Pete will be heavily scrutinized so we need to see how he responds to this pressure.
- Biden, yeah, hopefully he doesn't say something really stupid. It'd be nice if he has a good performance.
- While I don't think Klobu will ever win, she'll try to break from the pack again, bolstered by her admission to the December debate.
- Booker / Kamala / Steyer / Yang: Non-entities.
- Gabbard will say a bunch of hilarious stuff, and I'll make sure to point it out.

We'll see about the Sanders-Warren truce. I don't think either of them can win anything by going after each other. Warren might win though going after Buttigieg and Biden. Especially Buttigieg and Warren have an overlap in potential voters.



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Alright folks, I'll bite. Since everyone's been harping on Elizabeth Warren's M4A proposal and insisting that the Sanders version is so much more legits and better, I thought I'd point out a couple oddities about that:

1) The official Sanders argument against Warren's plan.

The official Sanders contention against the financing propositions in Warren's M4A plan that I have seen revolves around how to pay for about $9 trillion worth of implementation. Specifically, Sanders argues for a payroll tax hike as the best means, in contrast to Warren's proposed employer tax to cover the same volume of funding. More specifically, Bernie Sanders contends that the employer tax Warren is proposing would have a "very negative impact" on job creation.

The Sanders argument here seems very disingenuous to me. It's a supply-side economics type of argument of the kind that capitalists, libertarians, and conservatives often wield against all kinds of policy ideas that might conceivably benefit workers, consumers, or just the public in general, ranging from ideas like raising the minimum wage to environmental protections: added costs to business owners will surely raise the rate of unemployment and thus be a net harm to working people. Right? Riiiiiiiiight? So you see, we just can't do anything that might inconvenience the capitalist class in any way because they'll respond by punishing their workers on a scale that will outweigh the benefits! Such is how corporate, self-serving, top-down, supply-side economics type arguments go. And that is the type of pseudo-logic that, of all people, Bernie Sanders seems to be employing here.

If the idea that taxing labor is somehow better for working people than taxing capital instead doesn't ring true to you, it's not your instincts that are faulty. You know better.

AND...

2) The alterantive Sanders transition plan.

Oh wait, he hasn't released one! In his exact words, "I don't think I have to do that right now."

Or at least he hasn't released a detailed financing and transition plan that I've heard of anyway, maybe there's been an update on that since the publication of the linked article in the above paragraph a few weeks ago...? Well if anyone has info on the Sanders transition plan, feel free to provide it because otherwise it kinda seems silly to be critiquing the one Elizabeth Warren has put forward. I mean at least she has released one. Just saying!

Last edited by Jaicee - on 20 November 2019

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Mnementh said:
morenoingrato said:
Today:

- I can see the unspoken Warren-Sanders truce being over. While I don't see her going for the offense, I think Sanders might actually benefit if he goes after her successfully.
- Pete will be the most scrutinized candidate of the night. Warren will almost certainly go after him. Klobuchar will go after him. Maybe Booker / Kamala will try to score a couple cheap points with race (they will fail). Anyway, this is the first time Pete will be heavily scrutinized so we need to see how he responds to this pressure.
- Biden, yeah, hopefully he doesn't say something really stupid. It'd be nice if he has a good performance.
- While I don't think Klobu will ever win, she'll try to break from the pack again, bolstered by her admission to the December debate.
- Booker / Kamala / Steyer / Yang: Non-entities.
- Gabbard will say a bunch of hilarious stuff, and I'll make sure to point it out.

We'll see about the Sanders-Warren truce. I don't think either of them can win anything by going after each other. Warren might win though going after Buttigieg and Biden. Especially Buttigieg and Warren have an overlap in potential voters.

Hmh. Not sure. Warren's M4A was a bit divisive in their circle, and Sanders actually responded:

https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1195465297689530378?s=19

Since every debate we have an obligatory 30 minutes of healthcare, he might try and highlight their differences. I don't know if Warren wins by doing the same though.



Debate predictions:

Tonight's debate night. I think I can roughly predict the general types of things certain candidates will say.

Joe Biden: It's good to be with you all here in Seattle. Now: this is America! There is nothing, nothing, nothing we can't do! Except for everything my opponents are proposing. Where is the money for her plan? Where are the votes for his? No. No. No. No, we can't. Also, I'm the most experienced candidate on this stage. Why don't I remind people of President Obama like I make every effort to? Speaking of which, when I was working with President Obama...

Tulsi Gabbard: I'd like to open my remarks by using the phrase "regime change war" because it makes me feel better. Next I'd like to say that I'm a victim of media bias. And now I would like to direct this at specifically either another woman or the fag (who is basically a woman anyway in the eyes of my fans, I mean): ahem, WARMONGER!!! That is all I have to say. Literally. For this whole debate.

Sanders: Candidate X and I have been friends for many years, so this is not personal. But we happen to have disagree about the merits of being a sellout and a fraud!

Media: Cory Booker was the winner of tonight's debate. (Or at least one of the winners.) Maybe THIS will be his breakout moment!

Something like that anyway.

Last edited by Jaicee - on 20 November 2019

Jaicee said:

Alright folks, I'll bite. Since everyone's been harping on Elizabeth Warren's M4A proposal and insisting that the Sanders version is so much more legits and better, I thought I'd point out a couple oddities about that:

1) The official Sanders argument against Warren's plan.

The official Sanders contention against the financing propositions in Warren's M4A plan that I have seen revolves around how to pay for about $9 trillion worth of implementation. Specifically, Sanders argues for a payroll tax hike as the best means, in contrast to Warren's proposed employer tax to cover the same volume of funding. More specifically, Bernie Sanders contends that the employer tax Warren is proposing would have a "very negative impact" on job creation.

The Sanders argument here seems very disingenuous to me. It's a supply-side economics type of argument of the kind that capitalists, libertarians, and conservatives often wield against all kinds of policy ideas that might conceivably benefit workers, consumers, or just the public in general, ranging from ideas like raising the minimum wage to environmental protections: added costs to business owners will surely raise the rate of unemployment and thus be a net harm to working people. Right? Riiiiiiiiight? So you see, we just can't do anything that might inconvenience the capitalist class in any way because they'll respond by punishing their workers on a scale that will outweigh the benefits! Such is how corporate, self-serving, top-down, supply-side economics type arguments go. And that is the type of pseudo-logic that, of all people, Bernie Sanders seems to be employing here.

If the idea that taxing labor is somehow better for working people than taxing capital instead doesn't ring true to you, it's not your instincts that are faulty. You know better.

How about doing it like in Luxembourg? Because 40% of the healthcare is covered from your payroll tax, while 60% is coming from the employer's side.

The Drawback of this (and Warren's) system: Since the employer is the one who actually pays for the healthcare (60% from himself and 40 from his payroll to you), you're not covered if you're self-employed or not considered employed by the ones who pay you (Freelancers, Uber drivers - though the latter are not allowed in Luxembourg; unemployed persons in the country are getting paid by the government and thus also have healthcare).

However we have a way out: You can pay 117€ per month of your own volition and after a 3 months probation period you're also considered covered by healthcare. I hope Warren also has such a possibility in her plan, too.

Jaicee said:

Debate predictions:

Tonight's debate night. I think I can roughly predict the general types of things certain candidates will say.

Joe Biden: It's good to be with you all here in Seattle. Now: this is America! There is nothing, nothing, nothing we can't do! Except for everything my opponents are proposing. Where is the money for her plan? Where are the votes for his? No. No. No. No, we can't. Also, I'm the most experienced candidate on this stage. Why don't I remind people of President Obama like I make every effort to? Speaking of which, when I was working with President Obama...

Tulsi Gabbard: I'd like to open my remarks by using the phrase "regime change war" because it makes me feel better. Next I'd like to say that I'm a victim of media bias. And now I would like to direct this at specifically either another woman or the fag (who is basically a woman anyway in the eyes of my fans, I mean): ahem, WARMONGER!!! That is all I have to say. Literally. For this whole debate.

Sanders: Candidate X and I have been friends for many years, so this is not personal. But we happen to have disagree about the merits of being a sellout and a fraud!

Media: Cory Booker was the winner of tonight's debate. (Or at least one of the winners.) Maybe THIS will be his breakout moment!

Something like that anyway.

LOL!

You forgot Buttigieg: I'm the most progressive, though everything I do points in the opposite direction. I'll say today I'll do this and those and that and when I'll be in office I won't, I swear. You don't believe me? Surely that's because I'm gay and you don't like fags. You hater!

Though Cory in your example really needs to win that debate, as he's sliding lower and lower in the polls. He's also starting to racking up debt, meaning if the campaign slows down even more he might be forced to end his run.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 20 November 2019

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Jumpin said:
uran10 said:

First of all. no one has voted yet, the polls are speculation and things can change and 2nd of all if you understand Bernie's strat you already know the polling will not represent the actual results, but that's all I'll say on polling because that's not what I was referring to when I said my points. Let me tell you something that I'm sure you already know about me, but I literally do not give a rat's *** about polling. I already went through my entire thing which is Policy. I've posted numerous things in this thread about Warren and you want to know how the responses to these usually go? in one person's case they pivot to my 2nd choice in Tulsi to point out things they disagree with in her record like that's gonna improve my view of Warren. The other thing is they pivot to polling data which like I said before I think you all put too much stock into. On top of that, If you think Warren can beat trump, good for you. post all the polls you want, I'll just go back to multiple interviews of Warren freaking out over simple questions, I'll go back to her changing her stance on Medicare for all, I'll go back to her lying about being a native american until she was almost 70. I'll go back to her lying about how her teaching job ended.

You need to understand something. Hillary was winning in the polls as well and all trump had to do was expose how terrible she is. Warren's 1 interaction with Trump had her be exposed as a liar when it comes to being a native American. On top of that what she's done in her professional life will also come back to haunt her such as helping a company that gave faulty implants out of paying women but yes, she's definitely progressive. She's definitely so progressive that she's taken big money during her senate race, trasnsfered it in to the general and acting like its entirely grassroots based. Oh let's not forget her "I'm not gonna take big money in the general but I'll raise it for the DNC who will give me, the nominee, the same big money I raised making me beholden to corporate america".

^ You see these points here? You can't refute those because they are true. All these policy and character stuff are all things she's said and done.

And another to add on to the things you can't defend or refute: She voted for Trump's military budget, the one that gave him even more money than he asked for, yet she claims she's gonna slash the military budget.

There is only 1 candidate that is in this race fighting for true single payer Medicare for all, There is only 1 candidate that wants to cancel all student debt, all medical debt. There is only 1 candidate who has never voted for any of Trump's military budgets. So please, keep on accusing me of things, and keep posting your wonderful pollng data when I'm here on policy which is what I'm always here on.

And let me say this. Trump doesn't need to win the popular vote, he just needs to win the electoral college, and polls has shown that he has a high chance of doing just that. On top of that all he'd need to do is depress the democratic vote, and with how much ammunition Warren is giving him right now and already has given him, how she crumbles under fair questions because she's not prepared or it's not part of her "plans". How her history is full of lies and her stories never stay the same. Yea, Trump will bash her over the head with this and he wont gain votes, he doesn't have to. The republican base is strong and always energized. However you need progressives to come out for the general, you need independents who are mostly progressive if you go issue by issue and ignore stupid labels like "liberal, and conservative and socialist". There's a reason progressive youtubers and others say Warren vs Trump is a vote for Trump. Its because almost everytime Warren opens her mouth she sticks her foot in it and Trump is a good debater. You guy's don't give him enough credit and he will rip her to shreds over that record of hers all the while having the general incumbent boost. Need I remind you that Bush got 8 years even though he was one of the most disliked Presidents and that Trump is actually doing fairly well in his approval rate?

AND ONE MORE THING: Since you think i'm saying conspiracy theory things (even though WARREN IS THE ONE SAYING THE THINGS I'M POSTING HERE) where is your proof that she did not take big money transfer it in and say she's going to take it in the general? Where's your proof that she hasn't pivoted on medicare for all and has gone for a public option? Where's your proof that she hasn't voted for Trump's LARGEST military budget increase? Which story is true about how she lost her teaching job? Is it false that she helped a company pay less to women who were hurt by their faulty breast implants? These are on her record, these are things she has said and done and these are the few I can think of off the top of my head, if I wanted to I could go, load up my twitter profile and scroll for every single retweet I have done where her entire record was on display. You can go back in this very same thread and find them, and look them up. Its all public knowledge. You can't refute facts Jumpin, you can't rewrite history. You can post all the polls you want but that wont change Warren's record, it wont change how she has a terrible M4a policy, how she doesn't cancel medical debt, how she leaves some of them with student debt out to dry with these means tested policies. So I'm going to say this one more time. Refute the policy, I'll wait :)

One more edit: Your ad-hominem attacks don't help you btw. I see you trying this same comparing me to trump supporters thing often, from the very first time I posted in this thread you tried to label me as some loony. You tried to say I'm in it cause of cult personality when I refuted and said its policy and its always been policy. You check my posts and 90% of them are policy. I do not care who the person is, I care about what they will do and Warren has proven to me that she's obama 2.0. A whole lot of talk and nothing else. Bernie's record spans 40 years of fighting for people and he's never pivoted that's why he's easier to trust than mrs I was a republican for 47 years of my life. Do you know what I do? Every time someone releases policy I research it and read articles about what it does and what impacts it does, I sometimes see what mike or Kyle do in their breakdowns of the policy and follow independent media who report it as it is. Warren's m4a plan is impossible to pass and hurts the middle class. That's an unfortunate truth since she's trying to stick on immigration reform among other things on it and pay for it with a head tax. Sorry but nah, not about that. Oh lord this segment was supposed to be about refuting your ad-hominem attacks and it became policy again. But that's somewhat my point here. If anyone is following a cult personality it's you. You're not even bothering to refute or digest the policy substance that is being discussed. You just immediately attack me for posting what Warren has done or said which makes absolutely 0 sense. I'm not the one doing it and with me a poor immigrant citizen of the united states having this information you can bet other camps including trump does as well. That's not how you argue, that's how you know you've lost the argument. Politics and policy are married, don't shoot the messenger :)

Jesus Christ!

What do you expect me to do with this horrifically written 1500 word essay-lengthed rant?

The first part you claim I can't refute, but I'm going to do just that:

So you think you're somehow proving Elizabeth Warren won't win?

You don't bring any studies or polls to the table. Why? Because the surveys and polls go against opinions. You are unwilling to accept those facts.

I have statistics and polls. You have your delusional fanboy opinion. As your evidence against polls, you claim the opinion polls were inaccurate in the Hillary Clinton election. The fact of the matter is they were only off by about 0.1% off:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Polling Data

Poll

Date

Sample

MoE

Clinton (D)

Trump (R)

Spread

Final Results

--

--

--

48.2

46.1

Clinton +2.1

The actual result was Clinton winning by around 3 million, or +2.2 with the popular vote. Elizabeth Warren is polling significantly higher than 2.1% above Trump.

Do you not see what's happening to Trump right now?

You somehow think you have a killer argument with your false claim that Elizabeth Warren lying about her Native American heritage. The fact of the matter is that while she was wrong, she was mistaken, not lying. She even took a DNA test and released the results, if she wanted to lie, why would she do that? You seem incapable of distinguishing between that because you're a deluded and dishonest Bernie or Bitch fanboy.

See how easy that was?

And to sum up the rest of your nonsense:

You then move on with more attacks, more dishonest spins and granting over-importance to specific events and decisions of her past, more Bernie Sanders cult of personality style hero worship and hypocritical double standards. You lie about Elizabeth Warren being poor at debates as her debate performance has resulted in her skyrocketing up the polls in recent months. 

The reason your posts are so easy to take apart is that you live in a social media bubble of Bernie or Bust fanboys. Your interpretation of reality is not the same as the reality of the vast majority on the left. Instead of getting your news from legitimate sources, you get it from a highly limited number of American-based websites and spin channels on social media that service your Bernie or Bust social media bubble. You don't even make any attempts to challenge your own confirmation bias.

The reason I compare you to Trumpists is that you perform the role of a Trumpist within this thread. Not only that, your opinion on Trump seems to be identical to them, ignoring the polls and the reality of the situation he’s currently facing. You're not promoting left (or its goals), you're attacking it. You claim to only talk about the policies of Bernie Sanders, but you don't talk about them in anything more than the most simplistic buzz-phrases. Rather, the vast majority of your posts are concern trolling directed at Elizabeth Warren, the top polling leftist candidate running for President. The motivation for your trolling is because Elizabeth Warren's success is inconvenient for your fandom.

If you actually are pro-left and anti-right, I'd recommend you stop being a useful idiot for the Trump campaign.

Okay, let me tell you somehting real quick.

YOU REFUTED LITERALLY NOTHING I SAID! You went back to the exact same thing I said you would, polling data and I already said polling doesn't mean anything to me. You always act like you've taken everything apart when you didn't do anything. You posted polling data and ignored ALL OF THE POLICY I SHARED. But hey, you do you. You've proven my point.

To recap, I posted a number of policy and things Warren has said and done,all factual, all hard hitting, all Proving she's not a "progressive" but a careerist. Instead of arguing for Warren, you post more polls then proceed to attack me. Do you know why you keep coming back to attacking me and trying to call me a trumpist or useful idiot? Its because you can't refute the policy substance so you resort to attacking the messenger, in this case me. Since you didn't refute any of the policy posted here I wont bother with you. Also on your polling data, allow me to point out that Hillary was up 20 points in a state vs Bernie and she LOST! So don't come to me with this "look at the polling" either. I already said in the same post that data shows trump can win the electoral college while losing the popular vote like he did last time, but please continue to ignore that.

Quick edit cause I'm really tired of you now: The list of things I've called you "you're not the furthest left person in the thread"That's it.

The list of things you've called me(your attacks): Russian Puppet, Useful Idiot, Trumpist, Bernie Cultist... I could go on. My point here is, you're resorting to attacking me instead of refuting my points.You're refuting in this post was essentially "Stop bringing up her past". I already said it before, If a regular old joe like me has this information readily available the others do as well. And the majority of what I posted, was extremely recent. But you didn't refute those either. So I'm going to put this out to you right now.

Refute the Warren quotes and Warren plans and Warren strategies that I've pointed out, the words she's said the things she's floated. Did she or did she not? Did she say or did she not? Do that. I'm sure You'll come back with more polling and more of the insults and attacks above while conveniently leaving out the refuting of my points.  You say I'm attacking leftist goals, but the truth of the matter is I'm not. I believe in Medicare for all, I want money out of politics, I want a living Wage, I want to end the wars, I want student debt cancellation etc. These are the goals. The person in question (warren) has proven to me that she's going to take big money, she's fine with the coup in Bolivia, she's wants to cancel some debt, and instead of fighting for true single payer, she's trying to give us Pete's plan. Does that sound like the leftist plan? There is only 1 candidate in this race that is willing to carry out these leftist plans and only 1 candidate in the race who has told me exactly how he will do it and I trust his way of doing it. Warren has lied, and flip flopped hard on so many issues that I can tell you, Warren people I know don't even trust her any more and are switching sides. She's simply put "just a player in the game" and I want someone whose going to take that entire game, and smash it to hell and back cause its unfair to me, and every other person that's not a part of the 1%.

As for the transition plan, Medicare for all his literal bill explains that. THERE IS NO NEED TO GO FOR THE PUBLIC OPTION, IT KILLS THE SINGLE PAYER OPTION. Jaicee I know you're for medicare for all, I know that's one of your big things, and I get you support warren but admit that she screwed up. There is no need for a middleman bill in between where we are now to get to medicare for all. The public option will be just as hard to pass as full blown single payer and when it doesn't get passed they'll use the fact that "hey we just reformed healthcare" as an excuse to not push for single payer. You know better than this, you've been in Pete's plan the entire time and Warren's plan is literally Pete's plan. Its the exact same thing, be honest. On top of that, you can go back a few pages and see the articles about Warren's version of M4A and the enormous loopholes and issues it will have. It is not better and trying to be like "Bernie has no transition" is no argument simply because the transition is already in his bill. If you want Medicare for all and you want it asap, but somehow support Warren and Pete's plan. We're never going to get it. The public option will fail, its been explained time and time again how it would fail too. Oh and congratulations on using the right wing "how will you pay for it" Argument as if that's not in the bill, as if its not cheaper than our current system, and also as if BERNIE DOESN'T SAY IT EVERY SINGLE TIME HE'S ASKED THE QUESTION! My god... I'm so disappointed. Someone who supports M4A is choosing their candidate over the policy and now repeating right wing talking points that have been addressed over and over and over again.

As for Pete: A nice Thread with all the wonderful information on why not Pete: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1145703743842922499.html

Last edited by uran10 - on 20 November 2019

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