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Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

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I just want highlight the fact that Biden didn't need to be yelling like half the time he was speaking, especially that one exchange with Warren, he sounded like a stereotypical mad old man. Sanders was more light-hearted and smiled a lot more than usual when it comes to debates. Warren was Warren, calm and collected; didn't really yell but wasn't really light-hearted.



 

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morenoingrato said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-october-poll/

Thanks for that link. The favorability got updated in the meanwhile:

Biden gained minimally, both in favorability and unfavorability, leaving him virtually unchanged.

Sanders, on the other hand, gained a bit of favorability, but his unfavorability dropped also bit, making him come dangerously close to Biden

Warren gained a nice chunk of favorability, just enough to overtake Sanders in the process in that regard, all while being the candidate apart from Buttigieg with the lowest unfavorability, giving her the best ratio by a long shot.

Harris gained twice as much unfavorability as she gained favorability, overtaking Sanders in that regard. But she didn't botch up as much as Beto did, who not only gained over 5% in unfavorability, but also is the only candidate who lost favorability. Gabbard gained more unfavorability than him, but also gained some favorability, hence making Beto and Tulsi the big losers of the evening. Castro is o the third spot with these dishonors, as his unfavorability rose quite a bit while his favorability stayed almost unchanged.

Cory Booker is also one of the losers. He gained more unfavorability than he got favors. However, this should help him overtake O'Rourke.

Finally, Klobuchar and Buttigieg stood out, and it shows: Klobuchar won 5% of favorability, while Buttigieg won almost 4%. Those two were the winning duo of the evening, trio if we add Warren, who showed she doesn't falter under a slew of attacks (imperative if going against Trump), which is probably why she rose as well as she did.



Jaicee said:

-snip-

(Seriously, do you really think Donald Trump won rural America so big in 2016 because of fucking IMMIGRATION? Really? Only rich people care about immigration! People here would LOVE to have more people move in, if only so maybe we'd have a tax base to fund public services with again! No, he did better than Republicans usually do in rural America because he made a frequent habit of visiting smaller communities and talking about doing something, however contrived, about the flow of drugs, not just pledging to throw some money at the crisis from major metropolitan parts of New York and California like Hillary Clinton. I mean resources directed toward rehabilitation certainly help and everything, but what people REALLY want are the root causes of this problem addressed. And they don't connect to expressions like "We're going to put a lot of coal miners out of work." Trump hasn't delivered much in regards to the drug problem, which is probably part of why his level of support among low-income white Americans has fallen off since election day. There is an opening there. The Democrats would do well to take advantage of that opening. Sorry for the sermon.)

Regime change war.

Plenty of poor people do care about immigration,too. The reason for this is mostly that they are jobless or not earning enough to sustain themselves and then somebody comes along and saying that immigrants took the job that person ought to have. Rural regions tend to have much less immigrants and thus are more susceptible for this kind of scaremongering, even though with some logic thinking it would be clear that this can't be true (how could immigrants stole their jobs if there are none around?).

This is why in Europe, poor people were by far the most adamant against the immigration waves from Syria and northern Africa and along farmers the main source of voters for the populist and eurosceptic parties, especially the Front National (now Rassemblement National) in France, the AFD in Germany, UKIP and Brexit party in the UK, Lega and Five Star Movement in Italy... (The list goes on and on)

I do agree about all the rest, including the part that you cut, but saying that only rich people care about immigration is just not true.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

Plenty of poor people do care about immigration,too. The reason for this is mostly that they are jobless or not earning enough to sustain themselves and then somebody comes along and saying that immigrants took the job that person ought to have. Rural regions tend to have much less immigrants and thus are more susceptible for this kind of scaremongering, even though with some logic thinking it would be clear that this can't be true (how could immigrants stole their jobs if there are none around?).

This is why in Europe, poor people were by far the most adamant against the immigration waves from Syria and northern Africa and along farmers the main source of voters for the populist and eurosceptic parties, especially the Front National (now Rassemblement National) in France, the AFD in Germany, UKIP and Brexit party in the UK, Lega and Five Star Movement in Italy... (The list goes on and on)

I do agree about all the rest, including the part that you cut, but saying that only rich people care about immigration is just not true.

Okay well I'm just relaying statistical facts for you. Statistically speaking, immigration never polls as a priority concern of poorer people in this country. It does among people making more than $100,000 a year though. Also, rural America is not always poor. I would say that, yeah, country club types are often the leading anti-immigrant voices in the country. The fact is that the average person who supports Trump simply because that person is scared of immigrants is some 70-year-old guy who owns hundreds of acres, not somebody who lives in a community that's seen as too poor for Walmart and McDonald's to want to set up shop in because they'd lose money.

Now I can't speak to what the situation in Europe on that is because the fact is that recent waves of refugees have been composed of very different sorts of people from very different sorts of backgrounds (often conservative Muslims from places like Syria) who really and actually do tend to increase the crimes rates and the commonality of social violence in general when they migrate in massive numbers. Trump's claim that Latinos have that effect is statistical bullshit, but there is definitely a reason why Sweden's open-door policy toward Syrian refugees lasted only a matter of months those years back when as much was at its peak. It's because violent crime and rapes skyrocketed during that window for self-evident reasons. It seems to me that there can, in fact, be some legitimate concerns in cases like that, honestly.

I'm not saying that projects like Brexit are justified (on the contrary, Brexit is a reactionary scheme backed by Moscow as a key step in the undermining of Europe as a whole, and no part of it will benefit any part of Europe, least of all the UK, in reality; it has to be firmly opposed, as in more firmly opposed than what Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party has been doing), but I am saying that there may be reasons that institutions like the Brexit Party and pro-Brexit factions of the Conservative Party are able to exploit many low-income people from rural areas into getting on board with ideas like that that go beyond just the obvious concerns that working people from rural areas may have (as here in the U.S.) about being abandoned by major businesses that have supplied their livelihoods for generations here in the age of globalization.

Last edited by Jaicee - on 17 October 2019

Another example of the media being the media: Literally taking Bernie's quotes from the debate and claiming Warren said them.



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uran10 said:

Another example of the media being the media: Literally taking Bernie's quotes from the debate and claiming Warren said them.

That's really disgusting... But I'm not surprised anymore. Hypocritical traditional media has been overtly against Bernie since forever but somehow rarely touches Liz who espouses the same anti-corruption rhetoric. They're fine if it comes out of Warren but not Sanders so much so they'd take his exact words and claim it's hers. When he says it he's being a disgruntled old man, when she says it she's being smart and insightful. It's fuckin ridiculous.



 

uran10 said:

Another example of the media being the media: Literally taking Bernie's quotes from the debate and claiming Warren said them.

I mean...yeah.  If 2016 taught us anything it's that MSM has had a blatant agenda to push their front-runner.

Last edited by coolbeans - on 17 October 2019

coolbeans said:
uran10 said:

Another example of the media being the media: Literally taking Bernie's quotes from the debate and claiming Warren said them.

I mean...yeah.  If 2016 taught us anything it's that MSM has had a blatant agenda to push their front-runner.

Quick update on that btw, its not just them. I know the thread linked shows more than 1 but its atleast 3 "mainstream" outlets that have misquoted this now. I'm just going to leave this thought here again. If Warren is really so anti-establishment, and if they really were afraid of her, why would they be propping her up?



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Nate Silver has some thoughts about the AOC endorsement:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-aoc-and-omar-endorsements-could-help-sanders/



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Well I certainly did not see this coming... for the most part. The obvious part of this is that Bernie is the most popular Senator while Warren is the 6th most unpopular Senator right behind Joe Manchin.... like wow. I didn't see that coming but yikes.



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