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Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

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jason1637 said:
Warren is claiming that Facebook changed their political ad policy after a meeting with Trump. There is no evidence to back this up.
https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/10/7/20903883/elizabeth-warren-mark-zuckerberg-donald-trump-advertisements-meeting-tweets

Anecdotally, all of my FB friends and I recently had a huge inrush of Trump and conservative leaning ads.  Somehow, our ad preferences were suddenly populated with all of that. 



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

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SpokenTruth said:
jason1637 said:
Warren is claiming that Facebook changed their political ad policy after a meeting with Trump. There is no evidence to back this up.
https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/10/7/20903883/elizabeth-warren-mark-zuckerberg-donald-trump-advertisements-meeting-tweets

Anecdotally, all of my FB friends and I recently had a huge inrush of Trump and conservative leaning ads.  Somehow, our ad preferences were suddenly populated with all of that. 

That's what happens when they buy ad space.



morenoingrato said:
SpokenTruth said:

Anecdotally, all of my FB friends and I recently had a huge inrush of Trump and conservative leaning ads.  Somehow, our ad preferences were suddenly populated with all of that. 

That's what happens when they buy ad space.

Buying ad space doesn't buy your way into people's ad preferences though. 



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

SpokenTruth said:
morenoingrato said:

That's what happens when they buy ad space.

Buying ad space doesn't buy your way into people's ad preferences though. 

Facebook does not only show ads based on a person's political leanings. Even if your ad profile is "left-wing", political based ads should still make their way into users who are American.

That's far more plausible than some Zuckerberg-Trump conspiracy against Warren.

I'm very disappointed that she is also part of the spreading this lunatic rethoric.

Last edited by morenoingrato - on 08 October 2019

morenoingrato said:
SpokenTruth said:

Buying ad space doesn't buy your way into people's ad preferences though. 

Facebook does not only show ads based on a person's political leanings. Even if your ad profile is "left-wing", political based ads should still make their way into users who are American.

That's far more plausible than some Zuckerberg-Trump conspiracy against Warren.

I'm very disappointed that she is also part of the spreading this lunatic rethoric.

I'll say this again but let me ad an addendum to my original statement that will clarify. "Buying ad space doesn't buy your way into people's ad preferences when you've already blocked their ads."

You can check your own ad preferences using the following steps:

Settings > Ads > Click the drop down on arrow on Advertisers and Businesses

Now click on 'More'.  See the option to list "whom you've hidden"?  These are ads, ad providers, companies, pages, etc...that you have manually blocked from display.  You cannot ad buy your way off of this list. If I hide Honda, it can't be removed from that list unless I remove it.

What I'm saying is that 3 weeks ago (the same time as the meeting), my friends, family and I all suddenly had a huge inrush of conservative and Trump ads we had already hidden.




Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

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Warren is now the front runner.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html



jason1637 said:
Warren is now the front runner.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

I am not sure what will happen with Bernie from this point forward.  The heart attack has to have impacted things somehow.



Polyludic said:
jason1637 said:
Warren is now the front runner.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

I am not sure what will happen with Bernie from this point forward.  The heart attack has to have impacted things somehow.

Apparently he is healthy enough that he can press on with some days off. But yes, it can impact the campaign - if this goes into what people are talking about regarding Bernie. Someone can be very healthy, if people *think* he has a medical problem it may affect their stance.



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Jumpin said:
Another poll by The Economist shows Biden slipping further. It looks that Warren is picking up nearly all of the undecideds. I think this will cause a feedback loop allowing her to pick up most of the Biden support, who were supporting him because it looked like he was going to win. Now it's becoming more apparent that Warren is going to win. She has both the passion and the intellect.
Additionally, I'll go ahead and say that she's almost certainly the US's next President. Trump's support has been below adequate for him to retain the presidency virtually since he took office (since at least March 2017). Not to mention, he has grown weak and feeble since 2016, lacking coherency. I expect a landslide victory for Elizabeth Warren's Democrats.

Here are the poll numbers from October 1st, by The Economist.
1. Warren - 28%
2. Biden - 22%
3. Sanders - 13%

She's beginning to move from simple leading to a commanding lead.

Don't leave, Jumpin. We might not agree about inevitability, but you're my one friend on this thread and don't at all seem like a little dose of toxic masculinity to me. VGC blows and bears little resemblance to the outside world.

I find it comical that Jason's response to your post above was "I think this is a very premature conclusion considering that Biden is still the front runner when you average out all the polls.", followed by a link to the RCP average. Fast-forward a week and check out his latest post: "Warren is now the frontrunner.", followed by a new link to the RCP average. LOL!! Classic.

I've been reluctant to believe that anyone but Joe Biden can win this nominating contest, but you know what, I'm actually starting to have second thoughts about that myself. I mean normally a good debate performance is good for two weeks of uptick in the polls, but this current boost for Warren has been sustained for nearly a month straight now. Events ranging from the last debate to the endorsement of the Working Families Party to frankly the new publicity surround the Ukraine scandal seem to be conspiring to make her a more viable candidate. Her RCP polling average nationwide is now ahead of Biden's, and the latest poll on that list, one by Quinnipiac University, is Warren's best one to date:

Warren: 29%
Biden: 26%
Sanders: 16%
Others: Low single-digits

A couple of the more striking indications of this particular poll are that Biden has lost the support of both working class voters (now in third place in this category) and moderate voters, that Warren has fully doubled her support among black voters in the last month (Biden is now down to 36% of black voters compared to a majority back in the summer), leads among voters aged 35 to 64, polls marginally better than Sanders against Trump now, and that almost two-thirds of remaining Sanders supporters, in this poll anyway, are male. Also, contrary to Uran's argument that one could only support Warren over Sanders out of ignorance, Warren is the leading candidate of voters who say they are paying "a lot of attention" to the race, while two out of three Sanders supporters say they're only paying "some attention".  Another striking finding of this survey: fully a majority of working class voters plan to vote for a progressive candidate (26% Sanders, 25% Warren, which adds up to 51% of the total). It's the only class grouping of Americans for which that is true.

Last edited by Jaicee - on 09 October 2019

Warren officially comes out against her initial fundraising statements, she will not take big money in the general if nominated.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/09/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-fundraising.html

Yessss! This gives me a lot more confidence in her and was one of the big things for me that I hoped she'd change her mind on. This will go over well with undecided progressives, Warren's looking like a winner I gotta say. Biden's on his way out like I've been saying since the beginning.

Last edited by tsogud - on 09 October 2019