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Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

SpokenTruth said:
morenoingrato said:

That's what happens when they buy ad space.

Buying ad space doesn't buy your way into people's ad preferences though. 

Facebook does not only show ads based on a person's political leanings. Even if your ad profile is "left-wing", political based ads should still make their way into users who are American.

That's far more plausible than some Zuckerberg-Trump conspiracy against Warren.

I'm very disappointed that she is also part of the spreading this lunatic rethoric.

Last edited by Moren - on 08 October 2019

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Warren is now the front runner.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html



jason1637 said:
Warren is now the front runner.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

I am not sure what will happen with Bernie from this point forward.  The heart attack has to have impacted things somehow.



Polyludic said:
jason1637 said:
Warren is now the front runner.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

I am not sure what will happen with Bernie from this point forward.  The heart attack has to have impacted things somehow.

Apparently he is healthy enough that he can press on with some days off. But yes, it can impact the campaign - if this goes into what people are talking about regarding Bernie. Someone can be very healthy, if people *think* he has a medical problem it may affect their stance.



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Jumpin said:
Another poll by The Economist shows Biden slipping further. It looks that Warren is picking up nearly all of the undecideds. I think this will cause a feedback loop allowing her to pick up most of the Biden support, who were supporting him because it looked like he was going to win. Now it's becoming more apparent that Warren is going to win. She has both the passion and the intellect.
Additionally, I'll go ahead and say that she's almost certainly the US's next President. Trump's support has been below adequate for him to retain the presidency virtually since he took office (since at least March 2017). Not to mention, he has grown weak and feeble since 2016, lacking coherency. I expect a landslide victory for Elizabeth Warren's Democrats.

Here are the poll numbers from October 1st, by The Economist.
1. Warren - 28%
2. Biden - 22%
3. Sanders - 13%

She's beginning to move from simple leading to a commanding lead.

Don't leave, Jumpin. We might not agree about inevitability, but you're my one friend on this thread and don't at all seem like a little dose of toxic masculinity to me. VGC blows and bears little resemblance to the outside world.

I find it comical that Jason's response to your post above was "I think this is a very premature conclusion considering that Biden is still the front runner when you average out all the polls.", followed by a link to the RCP average. Fast-forward a week and check out his latest post: "Warren is now the frontrunner.", followed by a new link to the RCP average. LOL!! Classic.

I've been reluctant to believe that anyone but Joe Biden can win this nominating contest, but you know what, I'm actually starting to have second thoughts about that myself. I mean normally a good debate performance is good for two weeks of uptick in the polls, but this current boost for Warren has been sustained for nearly a month straight now. Events ranging from the last debate to the endorsement of the Working Families Party to frankly the new publicity surround the Ukraine scandal seem to be conspiring to make her a more viable candidate. Her RCP polling average nationwide is now ahead of Biden's, and the latest poll on that list, one by Quinnipiac University, is Warren's best one to date:

Warren: 29%
Biden: 26%
Sanders: 16%
Others: Low single-digits

A couple of the more striking indications of this particular poll are that Biden has lost the support of both working class voters (now in third place in this category) and moderate voters, that Warren has fully doubled her support among black voters in the last month (Biden is now down to 36% of black voters compared to a majority back in the summer), leads among voters aged 35 to 64, polls marginally better than Sanders against Trump now, and that almost two-thirds of remaining Sanders supporters, in this poll anyway, are male. Also, contrary to Uran's argument that one could only support Warren over Sanders out of ignorance, Warren is the leading candidate of voters who say they are paying "a lot of attention" to the race, while two out of three Sanders supporters say they're only paying "some attention".  Another striking finding of this survey: fully a majority of working class voters plan to vote for a progressive candidate (26% Sanders, 25% Warren, which adds up to 51% of the total). It's the only class grouping of Americans for which that is true.

Last edited by Jaicee - on 09 October 2019

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Warren officially comes out against her initial fundraising statements, she will not take big money in the general if nominated.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/09/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-fundraising.html

Yessss! This gives me a lot more confidence in her and was one of the big things for me that I hoped she'd change her mind on. This will go over well with undecided progressives, Warren's looking like a winner I gotta say. Biden's on his way out like I've been saying since the beginning.

Last edited by tsogud - on 09 October 2019

 

Yeah I'm really happy to hear Warren make the commitment to no big money in the general, that's really huge for me and does a lot towards rebuilding the trust I once had for her. I'm just glad Biden isn't the frontrunner anymore. Let's hope things stay that way. I'll be cheering, campaigning, and voting for Bernie until the bitter end, but Warren is a huge step up in frontrunner, from my last place choice to my second place choice. I hope if she gets the nom she picks Bernie as VP. I think his strategy of political revolution could still work well as VP. It functions off the bully pulpit, which he kind of already has simply by having a movement, but even the vice presidency is enough of a legitimacy boost that the media wouldn't be able to ignore him. I think the Dem establishment understands this to some degree, hence why they gave him the Chair position of the Outreach Committee. Making him VP would be that on steroids, even if it isn't the actual presidency, so he could end up being the most effective VP in history, considering most VPs accomplish little if anything, while Sanders could be the guy rallying the people behind Warren's plans, and holding her to account if she ever seems to stray towards the establishment.

You know, it's funny, back in 2015 when I'd first heard of Bernie Sanders shortly before he announced his candidacy, I immediately liked the guy, and was a huge Warren fan at the time. My immediate thought was that a Warren campaign should put Bernie on the ticket as VP, that was my dream team. As I got to know Sanders, and since Warren wasn't running, I figured a Sanders-Warren ticket could still work. It wasn't until much later that I started to distrust her at all, when she refused to endorse anyone before super Tuesday due to pressure from the establishment for having signed a petition encouraging Hillary to run, long before she knew Sanders would run. It just seemed like cowardice to me, at a time when the progressive movement felt ascendant. When it came out that the primary had been rigged, Hillary's campaign chair was behind it, and Hillary had corrupt financial connections to the party's national fundraising infrastructure, and Warren still endorsed her and didn't denounce any of it, it really pissed me off, it just felt so cowardly. Eventually though I realized as Sanders did when he endorsed her too that Trump was an existential threat to democracy and Hillary wasn't, so it wasn't simply a "lesser of two evils" choice anymore, it was an existential crisis. Even after that, I still had a bad taste in my mouth for Warren because I still felt like if she'd lent her progressive weight and credibility to Sanders before Iowa, he'd have won the primary and the general in a landslide, and we wouldn't be in this nightmare, and it still just felt like it was cowardice on her part. Since then, however, she's shown a lot of courage and started making major moves to fight hard for systemic change again, and reminded me why she was once my favorite politician. Like I said, I'm with Bernie to the bitter end, but with Warren's latest commitment against big money, and her new lead in the polls, I feel like we have a pretty exciting alternative to Bernie that actually looks like she'll win the primary. That can only be good news.



... She's a proven liar guys, just because she's said something doesn't make it true and even if it is that should have been the case from the start but it wasn't. The more you dig into her past the more you find out she's not what she's portraying herself as but if you're fine with getting hit with Obama 2.0 so be it. If that happens as Humans we deserve whatever comes of it. I mean, its not like we're at a very serious crossroads that might determine if our species goes extinct faster or not or anything but hey, sure. Let's take a chance on the waffler who calls a 200 page bill a framework, I'm sure she'll fight for that "framework", i'm sure she'll fight for that Green new deal cause she's lead on this issue right? I'm sure all the people who would be left behind by her student debt plan are happy right? Anyway this will probably be the last I'll comment on WARren in here, instead I'll just share this. On a real... More people need to start paying attention to actions than words. Look at records and actions vs rhetoric. Look at their past and don't dismiss at as "evolving" especially when the overton window in america has shifted to the right. Its all up to you but on a real, She's the 2nd coming of Obama and if you're fine with flowery talk and little action vs a proven fighter, then we as a people deserve whatever consequences comes out of it, cause let me spell this out for you. Trump doesn't need to beat Warren to maintain his presidency. The republican base is always fired up, he just needs to draw sympathy (the impeachment will help since it looks like they're covering up for biden since they wont go all in on all his crimes but focus on Ukraine) and point out how corrupt the democrats are. On top of and the main point on Warren, her record is her contradicting herself and lying over and over again (see getting fired as a teacher (she lied) and also native american heritage (she lied) ). Trump doesn't need the voters to switch to his side, he just needs them to not show up and its soooooooo much easier to do under Warren. So yes, take that chance. That's all I'm gonna say on the matter. Anyway, enjoy this wonderful Bernie video by Matt Orf again. He's doing an amazing job with these.



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uran10 said:

... She's a proven liar guys, just because she's said something doesn't make it true and even if it is that should have been the case from the start but it wasn't. The more you dig into her past the more you find out she's not what she's portraying herself as but if you're fine with getting hit with Obama 2.0 so be it. If that happens as Humans we deserve whatever comes of it. I mean, its not like we're at a very serious crossroads that might determine if our species goes extinct faster or not or anything but hey, sure. Let's take a chance on the waffler who calls a 200 page bill a framework, I'm sure she'll fight for that "framework", i'm sure she'll fight for that Green new deal cause she's lead on this issue right? I'm sure all the people who would be left behind by her student debt plan are happy right? Anyway this will probably be the last I'll comment on WARren in here, instead I'll just share this. On a real... More people need to start paying attention to actions than words. Look at records and actions vs rhetoric. Look at their past and don't dismiss at as "evolving" especially when the overton window in america has shifted to the right. Its all up to you but on a real, She's the 2nd coming of Obama and if you're fine with flowery talk and little action vs a proven fighter, then we as a people deserve whatever consequences comes out of it, cause let me spell this out for you. Trump doesn't need to beat Warren to maintain his presidency. The republican base is always fired up, he just needs to draw sympathy (the impeachment will help since it looks like they're covering up for biden since they wont go all in on all his crimes but focus on Ukraine) and point out how corrupt the democrats are. On top of and the main point on Warren, her record is her contradicting herself and lying over and over again (see getting fired as a teacher (she lied) and also native american heritage (she lied) ). Trump doesn't need the voters to switch to his side, he just needs them to not show up and its soooooooo much easier to do under Warren. So yes, take that chance. That's all I'm gonna say on the matter. Anyway, enjoy this wonderful Bernie video by Matt Orf again. He's doing an amazing job with these.

Oh and for those celebrating, here comes Warren being well.... WARren :)



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Is it really wrong to use big donors to raise money for the *party*?

Do you people not want to beat Susan Collins? Thom Tillis? Gardner? McSally? Retake key legislatures to stop gerrymandering? Do you think McConnell will happily pass whichever ambitious proposals you all want?