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Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

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SpokenTruth said:
 

In past elections, you could get away with putting your name in late in the game.  I don't think that's going to work this time around.  After Biden, I don't expect any candidacy announcements (for or against running). 

I guarantee other candidates will declare after tomorrow - no matter what JB does.  Candidates typically declare in the summer months the year before the election - it's just that the Demos wanted to start this campaign far earlier than the norm.



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Nighthawk117 said:
SpokenTruth said:

In past elections, you could get away with putting your name in late in the game.  I don't think that's going to work this time around.  After Biden, I don't expect any candidacy announcements (for or against running). 

I guarantee other candidates will declare after tomorrow - no matter what JB does.  Candidates typically declare in the summer months the year before the election - it's just that the Demos wanted to start this campaign far earlier than the norm.

Well, there are certainly will be declarations of running, after all we already have over 200 democratic candidates. But major candidates is another topic. I think the debates are very important in such a crowded field to stand out. So I see people seriously declaring at latest in may. Only extremely well-known candidates might get away without the debates, say Oprah Winfrey or Michelle Obama. So I see the serious declarations end in about a month. So after Biden it will slow down, although a few names are still in discussion (Stacey Abrams, Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio).



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

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I see at least 2-3 major declarations (active Senators or Governors) between now and the end of August.

Also, if Biden does declare tomorrow, he's only doing it for his son Beau, who died of brain cancer back in 2015, and told his father he wanted him to run for president.

Last edited by Nighthawk117 - on 23 April 2019

Mnementh said:
Fivethirtyeight has a site dedicated to tracked primary polls: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/

Great, gives a very good overview, not just for the national polls, but also the state polls and whom endorsed whom.

I just don't understand how their pollster ratings work. And I wouldn't have expected nearly as many pollsters...



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Mnementh said:
Fivethirtyeight has a site dedicated to tracked primary polls: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/

Great, gives a very good overview, not just for the national polls, but also the state polls and whom endorsed whom.

I just don't understand how their pollster ratings work. And I wouldn't have expected nearly as many pollsters...

538 has an old article with explanations of it's methodology which is still linked from the pollster rating. Therefore this methodology is still true for the most part.

Short version: basically it takes old polls from that firm close to the elections and compares it to the result of the election. The calculated difference is then compared with the differences of other pollsters for the same race or (if only few firms polled that race) with similar races. A pollster who often did better than the competition gets a good grade.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

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Nighthawk117 said:
SpokenTruth said:

In past elections, you could get away with putting your name in late in the game.  I don't think that's going to work this time around.  After Biden, I don't expect any candidacy announcements (for or against running). 

I guarantee other candidates will declare after tomorrow - no matter what JB does.  Candidates typically declare in the summer months the year before the election - it's just that the Demos wanted to start this campaign far earlier than the norm.

AS I said, in the past that was the game.  This round isn't playing by the rules of the previous election cycles.  I suspect Biden will be the last major potential candidate.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

Biden is definitely the last candidate anyone is going to give even the slightest shit about. 21 major candidates is too much. Some of these guys need to fuck off. I hope to God the first debates deny a bunch of them and they take the hint and quit.

Oh by the way, didn't see this posted yet:
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/04/joe-biden-reportedly-delays-wednesday-campaign-announcement.html



HylianSwordsman said:
Biden is definitely the last candidate anyone is going to give even the slightest shit about. 21 major candidates is too much. Some of these guys need to fuck off. I hope to God the first debates deny a bunch of them and they take the hint and quit.

Oh by the way, didn't see this posted yet:
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/04/joe-biden-reportedly-delays-wednesday-campaign-announcement.html

Some will do for sure. Gravel for instance already announced that he will quit after the debates, being just in it to shake them up and advance progressive ideas.

Not everybody is in it to win the race.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
HylianSwordsman said:
Biden is definitely the last candidate anyone is going to give even the slightest shit about. 21 major candidates is too much. Some of these guys need to fuck off. I hope to God the first debates deny a bunch of them and they take the hint and quit.

Oh by the way, didn't see this posted yet:
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/04/joe-biden-reportedly-delays-wednesday-campaign-announcement.html

Some will do for sure. Gravel for instance already announced that he will quit after the debates, being just in it to shake them up and advance progressive ideas.

Not everybody is in it to win the race.

Ugh, really? Why Gravel? I'd rather have him stay than Gabbard. He's basically everything I like about Gabbard with none of the creepy authoritarian loving baggage, proof that there are better options out there for you if her brand of anti-establishment pro-peace progressivism is what you want. Also he's growing a lot in support and will probably make the debates. He's my number 3 right now.



HylianSwordsman said:
Biden is definitely the last candidate anyone is going to give even the slightest shit about. 21 major candidates is too much. Some of these guys need to fuck off. I hope to God the first debates deny a bunch of them and they take the hint and quit.

Oh by the way, didn't see this posted yet:
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/04/joe-biden-reportedly-delays-wednesday-campaign-announcement.html

The first debate is on June 26th and 27th.  They will randomly select up to 10 candidates for each night (no repeat candidates). 

In order to qualify for the first two debates, debate entrants must either:

  • Meet a fundraising threshold, in which a candidate must receive donations from 65,000 unique donors, with at least 200 unique donors per state in at least 20 states.[161] Candidates who wish to qualify using the fundraising threshold must present evidence to the DNC of their eligibility using donor data collected by ActBlue or NGP VAN.

Based on the current polling, Sanders, Harris, O'Rourke, Buttigieg, Warren, Booker, Klobuchar, Yang, Castro and Hickenlooper are the only ones that meet the 1% at the national level.  Delaney, Gillibrand and Gabbard might meet the state criteria.  All of the previously listed candidates have met the fundraising threshold.

Inslee meets the fundraising but not the polling while Gravel, Messam, Ryan, Swalwell, Williamson, and Moulton have not yet met either requirement.

If more than 20 candidates eventually meet the above requirements, they will use a polling and fundraising formula to narrow down the top 20.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."