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Global Hardware 23 February 2019

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Eagle367 said:
Immersiveunreality said:

So Nintendo themselves confirmed that there are not many new young consumers while the age group they mentioned can very well have alot of last gen nintendo adapters and you think that is information against my speculation? :p

Bolded: Dont go that fanboy route on me,i have always liked the nintendo brand and i do not see it changing so as i said i am just speculating on the cause of these kind of sales.

There's an easier explanation to why PS sells so much. My question is switch sales seem too low and should have grown year over year like everywhere else. PS sells more because Sony did better marketing to establish itself and it has a better distribution network to reach all the countries in Europe whereas Nintendo does not. That is why Nintendo also suffers in the rest of the world. I'm saying your analysis is thoroughly and completely wrong in my opinion and that is corroborated with the fact that distribution of age groups of ps4 and switch buyers is very similar, not different.  I'm also saying that I think the switch is selling much higher than what is shown here. That's my point, nothing else and it's based on looking at trends in japan and US. Europe has no reason to provide no growth year over year to the switch sales, it's just inconsistent with everything else we know. Europe should be anywhere from 70,000 to 85,000 weekly by now, not around 65,000.

Different regions have different sales curves. Look at the data Nintendo gave in last quarters financial presentation.

April-December 2018

Japan, +4% YoY

North America, +18%

Europe, +40%

 

Europe had huge growth last year while Japan was minimal and N. America was moderate.

Notice how Japan had the smallest growth in 2018 but the highest growth in 2019? It had more room for improvement while Europe had large growth in 2018 so its room for improvement is lower this year.

PS4 sales in 2017 are another good example. This was the year where PS4 had its global peak, up 2.7m YoY, but NPD+Media Create actually had it slightly down about 300k YoY. This means that US+Japan were down 300k while Europe+RotW were up by 3m.

 

Just because 2 of the 4 regions are up/down, does not mean the other 2 will follow the same trend. Switch could very well be undertracked but your reasoning behind it is flawed.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
Eagle367 said:

There's an easier explanation to why PS sells so much. My question is switch sales seem too low and should have grown year over year like everywhere else. PS sells more because Sony did better marketing to establish itself and it has a better distribution network to reach all the countries in Europe whereas Nintendo does not. That is why Nintendo also suffers in the rest of the world. I'm saying your analysis is thoroughly and completely wrong in my opinion and that is corroborated with the fact that distribution of age groups of ps4 and switch buyers is very similar, not different.  I'm also saying that I think the switch is selling much higher than what is shown here. That's my point, nothing else and it's based on looking at trends in japan and US. Europe has no reason to provide no growth year over year to the switch sales, it's just inconsistent with everything else we know. Europe should be anywhere from 70,000 to 85,000 weekly by now, not around 65,000.

Different regions have different sales curves. Look at the data Nintendo gave in last quarters financial presentation.

April-December 2018

Japan, +4% YoY

North America, +18%

Europe, +40%

 

Europe had huge growth last year while Japan was minimal and N. America was moderate.

Notice how Japan had the smallest growth in 2018 but the highest growth in 2019? It had more room for improvement while Europe had large growth in 2018 so its room for improvement is lower this year.

PS4 sales in 2017 are another good example. This was the year where PS4 had its global peak, up 2.7m YoY, but NPD+Media Create actually had it slightly down about 300k YoY. This means that US+Japan were down 300k while Europe+RotW were up by 3m.

 

Just because 2 of the 4 regions are up/down, does not mean the other 2 will follow the same trend. Switch could very well be undertracked but your reasoning behind it is flawed.

We'll have to wait and see where switch lands in April when we get the first quarterlies since Europe won't give us any info till then.



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Eagle367 said:
Immersiveunreality said:

So Nintendo themselves confirmed that there are not many new young consumers while the age group they mentioned can very well have alot of last gen nintendo adapters and you think that is information against my speculation? :p

Bolded: Dont go that fanboy route on me,i have always liked the nintendo brand and i do not see it changing so as i said i am just speculating on the cause of these kind of sales.

There's an easier explanation to why PS sells so much. My question is switch sales seem too low and should have grown year over year like everywhere else. PS sells more because Sony did better marketing to establish itself and it has a better distribution network to reach all the countries in Europe whereas Nintendo does not. That is why Nintendo also suffers in the rest of the world. I'm saying your analysis is thoroughly and completely wrong in my opinion and that is corroborated with the fact that distribution of age groups of ps4 and switch buyers is very similar, not different.  I'm also saying that I think the switch is selling much higher than what is shown here. That's my point, nothing else and it's based on looking at trends in japan and US. Europe has no reason to provide no growth year over year to the switch sales, it's just inconsistent with everything else we know. Europe should be anywhere from 70,000 to 85,000 weekly by now, not around 65,000.

 First bolded :My speculation was more about that the age groups that buy switch consoles being similar to ps4 can translate into switch having the smaller pool of adults for its market because playstation games are more attractive for a bigger number of adults or that is how they are marketed/made.

Second bolded: Your own analysis consists out of you guessing and telling us you do not understand how the sales work so its must be the market having no reason to do things?

That is a fair,but i would not call it that much more coherent than what i typed down.



Immersiveunreality said:
Eagle367 said:

There's an easier explanation to why PS sells so much. My question is switch sales seem too low and should have grown year over year like everywhere else. PS sells more because Sony did better marketing to establish itself and it has a better distribution network to reach all the countries in Europe whereas Nintendo does not. That is why Nintendo also suffers in the rest of the world. I'm saying your analysis is thoroughly and completely wrong in my opinion and that is corroborated with the fact that distribution of age groups of ps4 and switch buyers is very similar, not different.  I'm also saying that I think the switch is selling much higher than what is shown here. That's my point, nothing else and it's based on looking at trends in japan and US. Europe has no reason to provide no growth year over year to the switch sales, it's just inconsistent with everything else we know. Europe should be anywhere from 70,000 to 85,000 weekly by now, not around 65,000.

 First bolded :My speculation was more about that the age groups that buy switch consoles being similar to ps4 can translate into switch having the smaller pool of adults for its market because playstation games are more attractive for a bigger number of adults or that is how they are marketed/made.

Second bolded: Your own analysis consists out of you guessing and telling us you do not understand how the sales work so its must be the market having no reason to do things?

That is a fair,but i would not call it that much more coherent than what i typed down.

April will reveal the accuracy of these Europe sales. But I am excited to see how close to 20mil they get. At the vrve least, Japan and US are considerably up year over year and last year was no joke in terms of sales either



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Eagle367 said:
Immersiveunreality said:

 First bolded :My speculation was more about that the age groups that buy switch consoles being similar to ps4 can translate into switch having the smaller pool of adults for its market because playstation games are more attractive for a bigger number of adults or that is how they are marketed/made.

Second bolded: Your own analysis consists out of you guessing and telling us you do not understand how the sales work so its must be the market having no reason to do things?

That is a fair,but i would not call it that much more coherent than what i typed down.

April will reveal the accuracy of these Europe sales. But I am excited to see how close to 20mil they get. At the vrve least, Japan and US are considerably up year over year and last year was no joke in terms of sales either

Probably around 18-18.5M shipped in the current FY, which ends on March 31.

I'm more interested into what Nintendo is expecting in sales for the next FY. Will it be 20M again? More, or even less?



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Eagle367 said:

April will reveal the accuracy of these Europe sales. But I am excited to see how close to 20mil they get. At the vrve least, Japan and US are considerably up year over year and last year was no joke in terms of sales either

Probably around 18-18.5M shipped in the current FY, which ends on March 31.

I'm more interested into what Nintendo is expecting in sales for the next FY. Will it be 20M again? More, or even less?

No way in hell is it gonna be less. I'm guessing they'll say 21 mil. And with this shaping up to be probably the switch's best year, I won't be surprised if they shoot past that. I mean the packed summer, what they still haven't told us for E3, mario maker 2, pokemon and probably animal crossing, I see no way the switch sells less than 20mil. 

The switch is at 14.49mil and last q4 was 2.92mil, so this one could easily be 4mil and that would fit your estimate. On the off chance that it's the same, it's 17.5mil and on the off chance that it's really good, it can be 19.5mil. 20mil this year is highly improbable but next year, not getting it is. 



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Eagle367 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Probably around 18-18.5M shipped in the current FY, which ends on March 31.

I'm more interested into what Nintendo is expecting in sales for the next FY. Will it be 20M again? More, or even less?

No way in hell is it gonna be less. I'm guessing they'll say 21 mil. And with this shaping up to be probably the switch's best year, I won't be surprised if they shoot past that. I mean the packed summer, what they still haven't told us for E3, mario maker 2, pokemon and probably animal crossing, I see no way the switch sells less than 20mil. 

The switch is at 14.49mil and last q4 was 2.92mil, so this one could easily be 4mil and that would fit your estimate. On the off chance that it's the same, it's 17.5mil and on the off chance that it's really good, it can be 19.5mil. 20mil this year is highly improbable but next year, not getting it is. 

I don't expect them to sell less, but possibly Nintendo would only announce 18M this time just to be sure to blow past the mark instead of stopping short of it like it did with the 20M for this FY. Hence why I said that they would possibly announce less than 20M.



Gonna be a good year for Switch!



Nintendo Switch Friend Code: SW-5643-2927-1984

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Eagle367 said:

No way in hell is it gonna be less. I'm guessing they'll say 21 mil. And with this shaping up to be probably the switch's best year, I won't be surprised if they shoot past that. I mean the packed summer, what they still haven't told us for E3, mario maker 2, pokemon and probably animal crossing, I see no way the switch sells less than 20mil. 

The switch is at 14.49mil and last q4 was 2.92mil, so this one could easily be 4mil and that would fit your estimate. On the off chance that it's the same, it's 17.5mil and on the off chance that it's really good, it can be 19.5mil. 20mil this year is highly improbable but next year, not getting it is. 

I don't expect them to sell less, but possibly Nintendo would only announce 18M this time just to be sure to blow past the mark instead of stopping short of it like it did with the 20M for this FY. Hence why I said that they would possibly announce less than 20M.

Quite possible but they also want to show growth so going lower than what they sell this year is out of possibility. That's why I think they'll say 20mil again and then blow past that.



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Been awhile since the last time I logged in.
Gotta say, I'm shocked ps4 is already almost at 100m.
Wow.