Assuming it gets the same amount of shipments and level of promotion (no trailer makes me think that Nintendo doesn't really believe in it), it should be able to do at least as well as the 3rd kit.

I would say that the 2 extensions, and the full pack at 80 will be a massive failure. People will mostly try first the 40$ just to see, and they will get bored quickly and not buy more of it. Maybe the 80$ pack won't even reach 50.000 units worldwide.

I think it's gonna do a little better than previous interations. Because they're finally addressing the main issue with Labo, which is the pricing.

The mild impact of the first three Labo iterations will work in favour of this new Labo kit. Because it brought down sales expectations. I think it's gonna be considered successful in the end.

I think with this the switch has a clear chance to reach 200 million units lifetime!