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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 16 February 2019

Nate4Drake on 08 March 2019
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Switch is still selling more in Japan than in all of Europe. It seems like it is still mostly the handheld market buying the Switch. I do think that will gradually change though.

Yep, and I've been saying that forever.  Switch is basicly a handheld which belongs to its own hybrid generation; the perception of it being a portable will be even more dominant when PS5 and Next XBox will be released.   



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Bofferbrauer2 on 08 March 2019
zorg1000 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Yeah, Japan outselling Europe doesn't seem right with those numbers. However, most of it came through the holidays, as in June, after 3 months, Japan was slightly in front.However, in Summer Europe passed Japan by quite some margin, leaving me to believe Goldenweek might have been the main reason for the lead in Q1. So Europe probably undertracked, but not by very much. 

Well that's shipments and that's not Europe, that is Other which also includes Australia, Asia & Africa.

I dont know how to post it but in their presentation they gave sell-through numbers for Japan, North America & Europe.

But overall you're right that pretty much all of that lead came from the holidays, Europe & Japan were each around ~1.1 million from April-September.

Yeah, but go to Page 7, chapter 7 on those documents. I know it includes both software and hardware, but there it clearly says Europe. Other is a different category, and if you would combine it with Europe they'll blast Japan out of the water saleswise. And I doubt that comes from software sales alone. Let's see that chart, shall we?

Until June:

Japan Europe Other
28910 26881 18882

So as you can see, Europe is just slightly behind Japan, even without the Other

Until September:

Japan Europe Other
76711 91510 37586

So Europe has overtaken Japan on it's own and by a pretty large margin. In fact income from Europe almost doubled.

I can't believe that all of it would be due to software.Besides, the one you are quoting has Japan 50 vs Other 70 in June, while it's a 114 to 193 in September, so it's not hard to imagine that In June Europe was trailing but during summer more than caught up in terms of sales.



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Dante9 on 08 March 2019
Rafie said:
Nate4Drake said:

It is not crazy; Switch is basicly a portable and sells very well for other reasons which have nothing to do with 3rd party releases.   Comparing Switch to PS4 or X1 is like comparing apples with oranges, a relatevely new handheld VS two very old Home consoles.   Not only they cater different audience, but they also belong to two different generations.

  I still cannot believe that this very simple concept has not yet been understood by some.    Just imagine, some still get surprised that Switch sells much better in Japan without new games and no 3rd party releases...

They're not that old. Also I understand the dynamics of the Switch and how it's selling. I almost feel like you're insulting my intelligence by saying that I don't comprehend that concept. I'm sure that wasn't your intention. That still doesn't negate the fact that there were decent 3rd party games out for February and the Switch barely had any, yet they're winning Feb.

You might have a debate on your hands saying that Switch is in a different generation. A lot of folks believe it's in the same generation as PS4/XBO.

Japan is a totally different market. I can't begin to understand how the Japanese audience work. It's quite peculiar. What makes sense to us here in the west doesn't necessarily translate there in Japan. For example, the 3rd party release you've stated. Japan will still sell many Switch consoles despite not having any compelling titles for that month. In the US, the PS4/XBO may win for that month if they have notable games that's not on Switch. However, Switch is still beasting and beating the other 2 despite not having any "big" game releasing. That's the reason I said it was crazy that the Switch was winning here for the month. I was speaking about the states. I know I didn't specify.

Japan as a society is about work, work, work. People have very little free time outside of their studies or working, vacations are very minimal as well. But hey have big cities and a lot of commuting, so they go portable. That's it, pretty much.



Rafie on 08 March 2019
Dante9 said:
Rafie said:

They're not that old. Also I understand the dynamics of the Switch and how it's selling. I almost feel like you're insulting my intelligence by saying that I don't comprehend that concept. I'm sure that wasn't your intention. That still doesn't negate the fact that there were decent 3rd party games out for February and the Switch barely had any, yet they're winning Feb.

You might have a debate on your hands saying that Switch is in a different generation. A lot of folks believe it's in the same generation as PS4/XBO.

Japan is a totally different market. I can't begin to understand how the Japanese audience work. It's quite peculiar. What makes sense to us here in the west doesn't necessarily translate there in Japan. For example, the 3rd party release you've stated. Japan will still sell many Switch consoles despite not having any compelling titles for that month. In the US, the PS4/XBO may win for that month if they have notable games that's not on Switch. However, Switch is still beasting and beating the other 2 despite not having any "big" game releasing. That's the reason I said it was crazy that the Switch was winning here for the month. I was speaking about the states. I know I didn't specify.

Japan as a society is about work, work, work. People have very little free time outside of their studies or working, vacations are very minimal as well. But hey have big cities and a lot of commuting, so they go portable. That's it, pretty much.

Wow! I wasn't aware. That's enlightening! Thank you for that. That actually makes even more sense how even the Vita was prospering over there versus over here. Also why the 3DS was such a huge commodity over there as well.



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Kerotan on 08 March 2019
Ganoncrotch said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

Hey now, I didn't ignore you. I just felt like not replying : P 

How.... ALTernative of me... I mean you.... wait now I've confused us both.

By the time you've told your 10th lie you've forgotten your 1st. The games up. You're going straight to the whole Alt Man. 



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The_Liquid_Laser on 08 March 2019
zorg1000 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Switch is still selling more in Japan than in all of Europe. It seems like it is still mostly the handheld market buying the Switch. I do think that will gradually change though.

Which is kind of weird because we got actual sell through numbers from Nintendo in each region at the last quarterly presentation.

April-December sell through

Japan- ~2.9 million

North America- ~5.0 million

Europe- ~3.8 million

From what I can tell, sales are just really heating up in Japan right now.  Europe is all about the PS4 and somewhat ignoring the Switch.  Seems like PS4 is not near saturation in Europe yet, while it is in US and Japan (or at least closer to saturation in US and Japan).  Japan is mostly about handheld consoles, and so there is one clear choice there.


Nate4Drake said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Switch is still selling more in Japan than in all of Europe. It seems like it is still mostly the handheld market buying the Switch. I do think that will gradually change though.

Yep, and I've been saying that forever.  Switch is basicly a handheld which belongs to its own hybrid generation; the perception of it being a portable will be even more dominant when PS5 and Next XBox will be released.   

I agree that Switch is a new type of "hybrid".  However I think it will stop being mostly a portable when the PS5 and NextBox come out.  Historically most customers choose the cheaper console over the more powerful one, especially if the cheaper console has a large library of games.  Ironically, I think when Sony and Microsoft move toward the next generation it will actually help Nintendo.



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Mnementh on 08 March 2019
Nate4Drake said:
zorg1000 said:

The chances of PS4 winning this year are very slim. Even with a price cut sales will be down YoY, at this stage of a console's life a price cut mostly helps to soften the decline rather than increase sales.

Switch on the other hand is already trending up YoY by quite a bit and its lineup is stacked from June onward so that trend should continue.

PS4 will still sell great this year but Switch should handily beat it by a few million.

Without a price cut at $199, Switch would sell a couple of millions more; with a price cut at $199 by 1st of Sept, and the Last of Us part II in Oct/Nov, I'm not sure Switch will dominate the year, they could be closer than expected.   

 What do you think about a price cut on 1st Sept ?  I don't think Sony should delay it furthermore, and it would be a good way to enlarge the userbase even more, and to not make a price cut too close to the PS5 release.     Sept is the date that makes more sense for me.

The forecast Sony will make for the FY 2019/20 will be telling in this regard. If they forecast a lot fewer sold PS4 they plan no pricecut. If they forecast stable sales they plan a pricecut. Either way, Sony already knows if they wanna do it, although they might be flexible on the concrete date.



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0D0 on 08 March 2019

PS4 is getting closer to 95m really fast.



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My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

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Nate4Drake on 08 March 2019
Dante9 said:
Rafie said:

They're not that old. Also I understand the dynamics of the Switch and how it's selling. I almost feel like you're insulting my intelligence by saying that I don't comprehend that concept. I'm sure that wasn't your intention. That still doesn't negate the fact that there were decent 3rd party games out for February and the Switch barely had any, yet they're winning Feb.

You might have a debate on your hands saying that Switch is in a different generation. A lot of folks believe it's in the same generation as PS4/XBO.

Japan is a totally different market. I can't begin to understand how the Japanese audience work. It's quite peculiar. What makes sense to us here in the west doesn't necessarily translate there in Japan. For example, the 3rd party release you've stated. Japan will still sell many Switch consoles despite not having any compelling titles for that month. In the US, the PS4/XBO may win for that month if they have notable games that's not on Switch. However, Switch is still beasting and beating the other 2 despite not having any "big" game releasing. That's the reason I said it was crazy that the Switch was winning here for the month. I was speaking about the states. I know I didn't specify.

Japan as a society is about work, work, work. People have very little free time outside of their studies or working, vacations are very minimal as well. But hey have big cities and a lot of commuting, so they go portable. That's it, pretty much.

Yep, It's cultural and a lifestyle;  Japan is a special country for gaming, so different from Europe, that's why Switch is dominating in Japan while PS4 in Europe, two completely different culture and lifestyle, and two completely different gaming experience.   



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

JRPGfan on 08 March 2019
curl-6 said:
CosmicSex said:
There was a topic about a month ago asking whether or not PS4 can achieve 50% market share when all is said and done.
Currently the PS4 is ahead by 20 million (Xbox + Switch).
This week they lead the PS4 by about 100k.
At this specific rate it would take about 3.5 years to make the PS4. And in general PlayStaion consoles have incredible legs.
Therefore, even though it is too early to call, I will bet that the PS4 manages to maintain 50% marketshare over the current competition LTD.
While the Switch obvious has lots of life left, I think the slow xbox one sales will be enough to ensure that the PS4 maintains 50% share.

For that to happen PS4 would have to outsell Switch by around 50 million lifetime, which seems extremely unlikely.

Something like:

135m PS4's
85m Switch's
50m XB1's

It could happend... depends on how long the switch keeps selling like it is currently.