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Will Mario Maker 2 become a 10+ million seller?

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Will Mario Maker 2 become a 10+ million seller?

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I predict it will sell...

Less than 10 million 22 20.56%
 
Over 10 million 85 79.44%
 
Total:107
RolStoppable said:

Beyond that, I don't get to decide what's okay and what is not.

You can always apply again next year.



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peachbuggy said:
I think the original Splatoon vs. original MM is a pretty good analogy. Original Splatoon was more popular on Wii u by a bit. If the sequel on Switch doesn't easily surpass 10m the MM2 may struggle to reach it. If it comfortably surpasses it then using it as a yardstick MM2 has the chance to do so too.
For the record i voted yes, initially without putting too much thought into it.

Sales from Wii U to Switch don't necessarily scale equally though.

Smash sold 5.35m on Wii U but sold 12 million on Switch in less than a month.

3D World sold 5.8m on Wii U but Odyssey was at 13.76m at the end of 2018.



curl-6 said:
peachbuggy said:
I think the original Splatoon vs. original MM is a pretty good analogy. Original Splatoon was more popular on Wii u by a bit. If the sequel on Switch doesn't easily surpass 10m the MM2 may struggle to reach it. If it comfortably surpasses it then using it as a yardstick MM2 has the chance to do so too.
For the record i voted yes, initially without putting too much thought into it.

Sales from Wii U to Switch don't necessarily scale equally though.

Smash sold 5.35m on Wii U but sold 12 million on Switch in less than a month.

3D World sold 5.8m on Wii U but Odyssey was at 13.76m at the end of 2018.

Yeah, i know it's not an exact science but i think splatoon to splatoon2 sales difference could at least give us a good guideline.



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peachbuggy said:
curl-6 said:

Sales from Wii U to Switch don't necessarily scale equally though.

Smash sold 5.35m on Wii U but sold 12 million on Switch in less than a month.

3D World sold 5.8m on Wii U but Odyssey was at 13.76m at the end of 2018.

Yeah, i know it's not an exact science but i think splatoon to splatoon2 sales difference could at least give us a good guideline.

Why specifically Splatoon to Splatoon 2 though rather than 3D World to Odyssey or Smash 4 to Smash 5?

Last edited by curl-6 - on 03 March 2019

curl-6 said:
peachbuggy said:

Yeah, i know it's not an exact science but i think splatoon to splatoon2 sales difference could at least give us a good guideline.

Why specifically Splatoon to Splatoon 2 though rather than 3D World to Odyssey or Smash 4 to Smash 5?

Well, for starters both Splatoon and Mario Maker were new IPs first on WiiU and got their first sequels now on Switch. Also Smash 4 and 3D World were counted often as weak entries in their respective series. Many prefered Melee (because of competitive play) or Brawl (because of single player mode) over Smash 4. I don't know much about 3D World, but I read here in the forums it being mocked as more handheld title (funny that the hybrid Switch now got a more majpr 3D Mario). You could also compare to Tropical Freeze. NSMBU and Mario Kart, these titles were generally seen positively on WiiU. But they got straight up ports, not sequels. Insofar for me Splatoon looks like the best blueprint.

But let's take a look at the numbers. I take the Nintendos report for the numbers (except Tropical Freeze, which isn't included).

title WiiU sales Switch sales growth
Splatoon 4.94M 8.27M 167%
Mario Kart 8.42M 15.02M 178%
Tropical Freeze 1.71M (VGC) 1.69M (VGC) 99%
3D World/Odyssey 5.80M 13.76M 237%
Smash 5.35M 12.08M 226%
Mario Party 2.19M 5.30M 242%

Obviously this varies wildly.

Let's take some percentages as an insight how NSMBUD and Mario Maker 2 might do:

title WiiU sales 150% 175% 200% 225% 250%
NSMBU 5.77M 8.65M 10.09M 11.54M 12.98M 14.42M
Mario Maker 4.00M 6.00M 7.00M 8.00M 9.00M 10.00M

OK, as you can see, I think for NSMBUD to get to 10M should be possible, it has to do basically as well as Mario Kart in comparison, and I think with the legs Splatoon get also to 175% (probably even 200%). For Mario Maker that isn't enough. It has to grow stronger than Mario Party or Odyssey to get to 10M. Not impossible I guess, but it seems extremely difficult.



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curl-6 said:
peachbuggy said:

Yeah, i know it's not an exact science but i think splatoon to splatoon2 sales difference could at least give us a good guideline.

Why specifically Splatoon to Splatoon 2 though rather than 3D World to Odyssey or Smash 4 to Smash 5?

I just think it's a good comparison. Both are direct sequels and both sold originally in the same ballpark, going by the numbers posted here.



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In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

Mnementh said:
curl-6 said:

Why specifically Splatoon to Splatoon 2 though rather than 3D World to Odyssey or Smash 4 to Smash 5?

Well, for starters both Splatoon and Mario Maker were new IPs first on WiiU and got their first sequels now on Switch. Also Smash 4 and 3D World were counted often as weak entries in their respective series. Many prefered Melee (because of competitive play) or Brawl (because of single player mode) over Smash 4. I don't know much about 3D World, but I read here in the forums it being mocked as more handheld title (funny that the hybrid Switch now got a more majpr 3D Mario). You could also compare to Tropical Freeze. NSMBU and Mario Kart, these titles were generally seen positively on WiiU. But they got straight up ports, not sequels. Insofar for me Splatoon looks like the best blueprint.

But let's take a look at the numbers. I take the Nintendos report for the numbers (except Tropical Freeze, which isn't included).

title WiiU sales Switch sales growth
Splatoon 4.94M 8.27M 167%
Mario Kart 8.42M 15.02M 178%
Tropical Freeze 1.71M (VGC) 1.69M (VGC) 99%
3D World/Odyssey 5.80M 13.76M 237%
Smash 5.35M 12.08M 226%
Mario Party 2.19M 5.30M 242%

Obviously this varies wildly.

Let's take some percentages as an insight how NSMBUD and Mario Maker 2 might do:

title WiiU sales 150% 175% 200% 225% 250%
NSMBU 5.77M 8.65M 10.09M 11.54M 12.98M 14.42M
Mario Maker 4.00M 6.00M 7.00M 8.00M 9.00M 10.00M

OK, as you can see, I think for NSMBUD to get to 10M should be possible, it has to do basically as well as Mario Kart in comparison, and I think with the legs Splatoon get also to 175% (probably even 200%). For Mario Maker that isn't enough. It has to grow stronger than Mario Party or Odyssey to get to 10M. Not impossible I guess, but it seems extremely difficult.

Good and interesting comparison, but there’s a side-note; games haven’t stopped selling. Especially Odyssey, Mario Party and Smash’s percentages will grow substantionally, maybe even reaching as high as 300% or it’s WiiU predecessors. With that, Mario Maker would’ve easily beaten 10m as well.



I don't see anything that leads me to think that Mario Maker 2 will sell more than 10 millions.

I think that this game being about building levels hurt this sales. New Super Mario Bros Switch would sell way more than Mario Maker 2.



I'm pretty sure. Super Mario Maker on the Wii U had most of the makings of a 10 million-plus seller. Too bad Nintendo had the copyright restrictions online that hurt free advertisement for the game on YouTube and Twitch, plus the Wii U already dying by the time the game came out.



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3DS: 77 mil (was 73 million)

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peachbuggy said:
curl-6 said:

Why specifically Splatoon to Splatoon 2 though rather than 3D World to Odyssey or Smash 4 to Smash 5?

I just think it's a good comparison. Both are direct sequels and both sold originally in the same ballpark, going by the numbers posted here.

Smash 5 is also a direct sequel and Smash 4 sold similarly to Splatoon 1.

For that matter, Mario Party, another Mario spinoff, has already doubled its Wii U sales on Switch and it's only been out for 5 months.