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Will Mario Maker 2 become a 10+ million seller?

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I predict it will sell...

Less than 10 million 22 20.56%
 
Over 10 million 85 79.44%
 
Total:107

The question is if it will do it before 2020.



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Considering the sales of the first game on the WiiU, I believe it has the potential to reach those numbers, specially after people start sharing their creations around the internet.



MAybe not at first, but I'm sure it will leg out to over 10M with time.



MasonADC said:
Mnementh said:
According to VGC Super Mario Maker sold 3.45 million copies on WiiU and 3.23 million on 3DS (most of the owners of the two versions are probably the same). Given, with digital sales on WiiU might be at 4 million. But selling more double and half in the next installment seems a bit much.

For comparison: VGC has Splatoon at 4.71 million, Nintendo reported Splatoon 2 at 8.27 million copies end of December. So a software that was a new IP on WiiU like Mario Maker, that has sold more on WiiU and got like Mario Maker an expanded sequel. Yet, it failed to reach 10M. And it seems unlikely Splatoon will get there, 2M left is a big chunk of sales to make.

So no, I think it is unlikely Mario Maker 2 will reach 10 million. It is very likely it will sell more than 5 million, it may even double sales, but 10M seems to far out of reach.

It’s 2D Mario, and the first new 2D Mario on Switch. That’s enough said imo

NSMBUD was already released earlier this year and reportedly already outsold it's WiiU counterpart. So 2D Mario is present. Also I'm not sure if Mario Maker is exactly the same niche. It appeals to people that enjoy user-generated content, professional level design and coherent game with themes and all seem to be a bit different (although admittedly there might be overlap between both user-groups). So no, it will not sell 10 million on 2D-Mario account.

That said though, it might be possible for NSMBUD to sell 10M, is sold 5.6M on WiiU, and earlier entries on DS and Wii sold over 20M each and on 3DS over 10 million. It might still be more likely for a complete new NSMB to sell over 10 million, but the port may have a chance to clear it. But not Mario Maker.



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Mnementh said:
MasonADC said:

It’s 2D Mario, and the first new 2D Mario on Switch. That’s enough said imo

NSMBUD was already released earlier this year and reportedly already outsold it's WiiU counterpart. So 2D Mario is present. Also I'm not sure if Mario Maker is exactly the same niche. It appeals to people that enjoy user-generated content, professional level design and coherent game with themes and all seem to be a bit different (although admittedly there might be overlap between both user-groups). So no, it will not sell 10 million on 2D-Mario account.

That said though, it might be possible for NSMBUD to sell 10M, is sold 5.6M on WiiU, and earlier entries on DS and Wii sold over 20M each and on 3DS over 10 million. It might still be more likely for a complete new NSMB to sell over 10 million, but the port may have a chance to clear it. But not Mario Maker.

NSMBU on Wii U sold 5 million units, so the switch version hasn’t outsold it yet. Mario maker appeals to the same casual crowd as NSMBU, and even more so to a hardcore crowd, and there is absolutely no way NSMBU outsells Mario maker 2 



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Mnementh said:
According to VGC Super Mario Maker sold 3.45 million copies on WiiU and 3.23 million on 3DS (most of the owners of the two versions are probably the same). Given, with digital sales on WiiU might be at 4 million. But selling more double and half in the next installment seems a bit much.

For comparison: VGC has Splatoon at 4.71 million, Nintendo reported Splatoon 2 at 8.27 million copies end of December. So a software that was a new IP on WiiU like Mario Maker, that has sold more on WiiU and got like Mario Maker an expanded sequel. Yet, it failed to reach 10M. And it seems unlikely Splatoon will get there, 2M left is a big chunk of sales to make.

So no, I think it is unlikely Mario Maker 2 will reach 10 million. It is very likely it will sell more than 5 million, it may even double sales, but 10M seems to far out of reach.

Splatoon 2 has been selling consistently since it released and sells 600k a quarter it'll cross 10m this year you've completely ignored the legs these games have.



Over 10 million easily, provided that Nintendo gives it a big push (which they will, I'm sure). The original game sold four million copies at a time when the Wii U was already dead in the water (shame), so releasing Mario Maker 2 on a system that currently has nearly three times the users and is growing in popularity by about a million units a month guarantees that it will be a big success! Also, I think that word of mouth is going to catapault it even further!



RolStoppable said:
No. It's a level editor and will rely on usergenerated content. Most fans of 2D Mario will skip the game because they want professional content AND coherent world building, that's why the included professional levels in Super Mario Maker 2 won't be good enough.

I agree that this is what 2D Mario fans want most.  But I don't think we are going to get that on the Switch.  The next best thing will be Mario Maker 2 and a lot of people will settle for that.  In fact, I think NSMBUD is settling too.  It is worse than Mario Maker.  Most people will see Mario Maker 2 as the true 2D Mario Maker game on the Switch.  

I agree with what you are saying though.  I don't think Mario Maker 2 will sell as well as the Wii's 2D Mario.  It's not going to flop either though.

Mnementh said:
MasonADC said:

It’s 2D Mario, and the first new 2D Mario on Switch. That’s enough said imo

NSMBUD was already released earlier this year and reportedly already outsold it's WiiU counterpart. So 2D Mario is present. Also I'm not sure if Mario Maker is exactly the same niche. It appeals to people that enjoy user-generated content, professional level design and coherent game with themes and all seem to be a bit different (although admittedly there might be overlap between both user-groups). So no, it will not sell 10 million on 2D-Mario account.

That said though, it might be possible for NSMBUD to sell 10M, is sold 5.6M on WiiU, and earlier entries on DS and Wii sold over 20M each and on 3DS over 10 million. It might still be more likely for a complete new NSMB to sell over 10 million, but the port may have a chance to clear it. But not Mario Maker.

Mario Maker will be drawing from two install bases: Wii U and 3DS.  For that reason I am thinking it will sell more like Smash Bros than Splatoon.  Smash Bros did extremely well, because it is getting both Wii U and 3DS fans of Smash Bros. 



Mario Maker could easily have become the second best selling Wii U title next to Mario Kart 8 if it was released one year ealier. The existing MM community is hyped as fuck about the changes shown in MM2 trailer so far. It will be huge.



Yes. Just looking at how Nintendo's brand awareness has grown, the Switch's large userbase and the longevity of Mario Maker's appeal on Youtube plays, it seems like a no brainer that this will do well. I hope they show off new features but just playing an unlimited amount of levels makes this game the ultimate 2D Mario Experience. For me it's another big 15m+ seller for the Switch.



YNWA