You are making the same mistake again. The proper comparison is always LTD sell-through vs. LTD shipments. The key point is that retailers tend to maintain a stock level that lasts them 6-8 weeks in order to be prepared for sudden surges in demand; if they ran out of consoles, a potential customer would do their business at a different store.
A console that sells 250k units per week worldwide will have a bigger gap between LTD sell-through and LTD shipments than a console that sells only 150k units per week. There are times when retailers over- or underestimate demand for a console, so the following fiscal quarter will see a correction due to retailer orders. VGC's estimates point to a slight overestimation, so for the current fiscal quarter sell-through can exceed shipments as retailers scale down the stock they have on shelves and in their warehouses.
I have made a graph to see the evolution of the quantity in transit, we have seen that they theoriticaly shipped at every quarters a bit more than what was counted and adjusted here, except for the Q1 2018. So the transit quantity is increasing, and lately, the sales of the Switch has been surprising, I would guess that the stock in transit should keep increasing a little bit again... OR there will be a "lag" in the reaction to adapt the stock to the sales increase and they might announce an inferior shipment than what was sold for 2018 Q4 ?
Woudl be interesting to make the same grapho for 3-4 other consoles and see if there is a predictable behavior to this stock quantity. Could it be a rule here that the stock takes a hit at every Q1.Last edited by Amnesia - on 17 March 2019
Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
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