the predictions/discussion here is referring to totals for CY 2019 rather than FY 2019 correct?
i think some people are slightly overestimating the size of switch's holiday quarter this year. it will be great for sure, but last year was truly phenomenal - imo, pokemon + lite pales in comparison to pokemon LG + smash. the main reason i'm not expecting numbers to be significantly down is that there is a fantastic catalogue of games released this year that remain enticing going into the holidays; ring fit is becoming a massive hit to pull in a different audience; and the lite is still a bit of a wildcard.
p.s. i think this is my first time posting here since like 2018 haha
I dunno, man.
For me, a $199 Switch Lite + a mainline Pokémon game would beat last year's offers anytime.
possibly. i have to say, i'm very uncertain with this specific discussion.
however... there are a few things working against that imo:
- so far, the lite's performance has been strong, but it isn't setting the world on fire. in japan, the place where the highest lite/OG ratio should be expected (a very handheld focused market where cheaper revisions typically, emphasis on typically, thrive), the lite is already selling less week on week than the normal switch. it'll sell a lot in the holidays, and this ratio will change a bit, but it clearly is a less enticing product than the OG for most consumers.
- a considerable amount of pokemon fans would have bought a switch last year, for LG. of course, there will be plenty of people buying a switch for S/S still, but a significant amount of people who would purchase a switch for this game, already have. even though SW/SH will sell around double LG, it most certainly will bring in less than double the amount of new switch owners, due to not being the first game on the switch.
- smash was.... just absolutely massive. one of, if not the, biggest exlusive launches ever in most regions. pokemon this year very likely wont sell as much as smash LTD, though it will open a bit higher. however, last year smash was coupled with pokemon and SMP, both having massive holiday presence too. this year, pokemon is the only release of this nature, unless you count luigis mansion i guess.