Interesting stuff. If switch manage to do 21-22 millions that would be huge. Knowing this year was big but they have multiple cards they can still play for coming years. Like classic switch didnt get a price cut yet and we can see that they don't have the same audience, which means the price cut could still be huge for sales even tho the lite is a thing.

Week 44 Numbers have just been posted. This week saw the launch of Luigi's Mansion 3 + the Pokemon Sword/Shield edition of the Switch Lite.

Furthermore, the Switch was adjusted up due to Nintendo's recent announcement of 10 million units sold in Japan as of November 3rd.
Thanks to these adjustments, I did more calculations and found that the Switch is currently on track to sell roughly 22,178,989 units in 2019.

The two most interesting months are upon us

Almost 3M lead over last year for the Switch already. 21-22M definitely seems very possible now.

PS4 is tracking to land around 15M. Not shabby at all for it's age, yet still a million short of Sony's expectations.

the predictions/discussion here is referring to totals for CY 2019 rather than FY 2019 correct?

i think some people are slightly overestimating the size of switch's holiday quarter this year. it will be great for sure, but last year was truly phenomenal - imo, pokemon + lite pales in comparison to pokemon LG + smash. the main reason i'm not expecting numbers to be significantly down is that there is a fantastic catalogue of games released this year that remain enticing going into the holidays; ring fit is becoming a massive hit to pull in a different audience; and the lite is still a bit of a wildcard.

p.s. i think this is my first time posting here since like 2018 haha

I dunno, man.

For me, a $199 Switch Lite + a mainline Pokémon game would beat last year's offers anytime.

possibly. i have to say, i'm very uncertain with this specific discussion.

however... there are a few things working against that imo:

- so far, the lite's performance has been strong, but it isn't setting the world on fire. in japan, the place where the highest lite/OG ratio should be expected (a very handheld focused market where cheaper revisions typically, emphasis on typically, thrive), the lite is already selling less week on week than the normal switch. it'll sell a lot in the holidays, and this ratio will change a bit, but it clearly is a less enticing product than the OG for most consumers.

- a considerable amount of pokemon fans would have bought a switch last year, for LG. of course, there will be plenty of people buying a switch for S/S still, but a significant amount of people who would purchase a switch for this game, already have. even though SW/SH will sell around double LG, it most certainly will bring in less than double the amount of new switch owners, due to not being the first game on the switch. 

- smash was.... just absolutely massive. one of, if not the, biggest exlusive launches ever in most regions. pokemon this year very likely wont sell as much as smash LTD, though it will open a bit higher. however, last year smash was coupled with pokemon and SMP, both having massive holiday presence too. this year, pokemon is the only release of this nature, unless you count luigis mansion i guess.

If November+December aren’t up from last year, they will atleast be flat. There is no way that it will be down. The lite is made to shine in the holidays

that's kind of what i'm saying though. i feel like ppl are seeing the massive 30%+ its up yoy so far and think that will continue. 

if it were exactly flat, for example, it would sell another 7.9 million after this week - which brings it under the 20 million most are expecting.

again though, there is a possibility itll be up a bit for the holidays, just not nearly as much as it has been the rest of the year.

Well, to me it looks more like it's going to be Pokemon + Lite + Ring Fit Adventure, as the latter develops more and more into a real sleeper hit with very long legs and a long run (pun intended )

Finally, I think some Direct will be incoming soon, mostly about 3rd party games coming during the holidays. And then there's a big gap between early December and mid January without any game releases, i'm sure there will be some announcements coming.