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PS4/XBO/NS - 2018 vs. 2019 - Week 45 Numbers Added; Death Stranding releases

Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2018 vs. 2019 - Week 45 Numbers Added; Death Stranding releases

Barkley said:

I agree that Switch will sell more than PS4's 2018 this year, but what do you mean by already on track?

Week 39 has Switch at 9.25m vs 10.3m for PS4's 2018.

Probably because last year Nintendo had a bigger percentage of annual sales coming from Q4 compared to Playstation.

PS4

Q1-Q3, 10.3m (56.5%)

Q4, 7.9m (43.5%)

NSW

Q1-Q3, 7.3m (44.5%)

Q4, 9.0m (55.5%)



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
Barkley said:

I agree that Switch will sell more than PS4's 2018 this year, but what do you mean by already on track?

Week 39 has Switch at 9.25m vs 10.3m for PS4's 2018.

Probably because last year Nintendo had a bigger percentage of annual sales coming from Q4 compared to Playstation.

PS4

Q1-Q3, 10.3m (56.5%)

Q4, 7.9m (43.5%)

NSW

Q1-Q3, 7.3m (44.5%)

Q4, 9.0m (55.5%)

With Switch Lite Launch pushing an extra 600k into Q3 I expect Q4 won't reach 55% for Switch this year.

But yes it is on track to beat PS4's 2018, I just wasn't sure if he read the wrong column or something when he said that.



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)


Barkley said:
zorg1000 said:

Probably because last year Nintendo had a bigger percentage of annual sales coming from Q4 compared to Playstation.

PS4

Q1-Q3, 10.3m (56.5%)

Q4, 7.9m (43.5%)

NSW

Q1-Q3, 7.3m (44.5%)

Q4, 9.0m (55.5%)

With Switch Lite Launch pushing an extra 600k into Q3 I expect Q4 won't reach 55% for Switch this year.

But yes it is on track to beat PS4's 2018, I just wasn't sure if he read the wrong column or something when he said that.

Yeah Switch Lite launch boost could possibly change the ratio by a few points, say 52% rather than 55% for Q4.

But overall we are on the same page, I'm thinking somewhere in the 18-20 million range for the year is looking likely which puts it right there with PS4 2017/2018 (its 2 best years).



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

PAOerfulone said:

According to @ZhugeEX, Nintendo really up'ed their game with the stocks for Switch Lite for both the holiday season and the possible new tariffs pending from China. So stock shouldn't be an issue at all this holiday season, but if it is... Holy shit.

I think they will most likely have stock issues.  All of these people projecting 20m for Switch this year are waaaay too conservative.  The Switch Lite means that this is the first holiday season that parents can afford to get their kids a Switch.  Now add in the Pokemon factor, and this holiday is going to be nuts. 

There are people out there who only play mainline Pokemon games and nothing else.  I have met more than one person like this.  Mainline Pokemon gets released and these people come out of the shadows to buy the game (and system too if need be), then they disappear for about 3 years until the next Pokemon shows up.  Pokemon + Switch Lite alone is huge on top of the growing sales momentum already there for the Switch.  Expect Switch to have supply issues.



Barkley said:
HylianSwordsman said:
Holy crap. So Switch is already on track to surpass PS4's 2018, I really didn't expect the Lite to have such an impressive second week hold. If this keeps up, 20 million should be a pretty easy target.

I agree that Switch will sell more than PS4's 2018 this year, but what do you mean by already on track?

Week 39 has Switch at 9.25m vs 10.3m for PS4's 2018.

18.8m has been by prediction for a while, it has a good chance of surpassing that I think, but I don't see it reaching 20m.

Already on track because Switch 2019 has outsold the 2018 numbers week after week, and if you look at the total end of year 2018 Switch numbers and add the margin that Switch 2019 has already built up on it, it's more than the PS4 2018 numbers. It's unlikely to suddenly start selling worse than last year after doing so well so far, so I consider it to be on track for 18.3 million right now, with a possibility to build on that significantly.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
PAOerfulone said:

According to @ZhugeEX, Nintendo really up'ed their game with the stocks for Switch Lite for both the holiday season and the possible new tariffs pending from China. So stock shouldn't be an issue at all this holiday season, but if it is... Holy shit.

I think they will most likely have stock issues.  All of these people projecting 20m for Switch this year are waaaay too conservative.  The Switch Lite means that this is the first holiday season that parents can afford to get their kids a Switch.  Now add in the Pokemon factor, and this holiday is going to be nuts. 

There are people out there who only play mainline Pokemon games and nothing else.  I have met more than one person like this.  Mainline Pokemon gets released and these people come out of the shadows to buy the game (and system too if need be), then they disappear for about 3 years until the next Pokemon shows up.  Pokemon + Switch Lite alone is huge on top of the growing sales momentum already there for the Switch.  Expect Switch to have supply issues.

Exactly. We only have 2 weeks of data with the Lite, you can't just compare the total for the years cuz the launch of the lite is getting spread over the whole year but actually look at how insane the momentum changed now that the lite is out and how CRAZY it will be for families to be able to buy a switch for 200$ and maybe multiple ones per household. Feel like 18 million is the minimum it will do this year, 20 millions is easily achievable imo.



Week 40 numbers have just been posted.
The Switch is now up YOY by over 2 million units and the PS4 is less than 100k away from reaching 9 million units on the year as we have now reached October.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

Just for fun...

XBO 2019 Sales: 4.7 million
PS4 2019 Sales: 15.4 million
Switch 2019 Sales: 20.75 million

I'll adjust these predictions as we get closer, and see how much I need to change them.



Apologies for the late delay, work and stomach cramps are a nasty combination.

Anyways, Week 41 numbers have just been posted.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

Perhaps this has been asked before, but what explains the discrepancy between the numbers in this thread and the numbers in the "Year on Year Sales & Market Share Charts" articles?