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PS4/XBO/NS - 2018 vs. 2019 - Week 31 Numbers Added

Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2018 vs. 2019 - Week 31 Numbers Added

ArchangelMadzz said:
SpokenTruth said:

PS4 had an amazing 2018.  Only 1 week below 200k and even that was 199,103.  Few consoles have ever done that (Wii, PS2, GBA and DS are the only ones I can image having done it..unless the X360 also did it with Kinect).

However, Nintendo has always been a second half sales player whereas Sony tends to be much more all year rounded.  While it looks surprising, it's actually not when you look at the year long trends of the console makers every year.

Look at 2018 first half for both:

PS4 - 7,016,919
Switch - 4,898,946

Now look at the second half of 2018 for both:

PS4 - 10,983,848
Switch - 11,587,952

So despite the 2.1 million deficit at the half way mark, Switch finished 600k ahead in the second half. So it may seem odd that PS4 H1 2018 is a million higher than Switch H1 2019, it's not beyond expected figures given how they sell across both halves of the year.

That's a cool interesting point. If it holds the same percentage increase then H2 2019 will sell 2.365 times more in H2 giving a total of 20.4 million sold for 2019. Which would give it a 2.4 million lead. So we'll see if that trend continues in the same way. The Switch should win, it's just without doing background it was interesting to see PS4 has a million lead in it's 5th year over Switch this year. 

Bofferbrauer2 said:

While the PS4 is in front, unless the announcement of the Switch Lite throws a wrench into the Switch's sales wheels until it's release, The advantage should start to shrink now over the course of summer, and then shrink rapidly/grow in favor of the Switch once the Lite is released.

Like SpokenTruth already explained, 2H from Nintendo beat the one of the PS4. Nintendo being traditionally dtrong during the holiday season coupled with the 1-2 punch of Pokemon Let's go and Smash Ultimate certainly helped to that, but it wasn't the only factor. Nintendo already announced back then that during Summer the sales went up, so the rise came from across the entire 2H last year. With what has been announced to come this July and then starting August 30, there will be a similar push this year throughout summer, and then Lite, Link's Awakening and Pokemon will push it into overdrive.

Do you think Switch Lite would be tallied up with Switch sales? It's not as if they're just selling the switch controller without the dock. It doesn't support any output to a TV, no joycons etc, so it's a dedicated handheld device that will over time I assume replace the 3DS. 

It makes no meaningful difference either way but interesting to see if people would add those sales to the Switch.

I have been thinking about this.  When Nintendo projected 18m for the current fiscal year, I thought it was stupidly low.  However if that only counts the Switch and not the Switch Lite, then I think 18m is about right.  Kind of depends on what they meant.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:

I have been thinking about this.  When Nintendo projected 18m for the current fiscal year, I thought it was stupidly low.  However if that only counts the Switch and not the Switch Lite, then I think 18m is about right.  Kind of depends on what they meant.

They meant everything Switch combined.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
ArchangelMadzz said:

That's a cool interesting point. If it holds the same percentage increase then H2 2019 will sell 2.365 times more in H2 giving a total of 20.4 million sold for 2019. Which would give it a 2.4 million lead. So we'll see if that trend continues in the same way. The Switch should win, it's just without doing background it was interesting to see PS4 has a million lead in it's 5th year over Switch this year. 

Do you think Switch Lite would be tallied up with Switch sales? It's not as if they're just selling the switch controller without the dock. It doesn't support any output to a TV, no joycons etc, so it's a dedicated handheld device that will over time I assume replace the 3DS. 

It makes no meaningful difference either way but interesting to see if people would add those sales to the Switch.

I have been thinking about this.  When Nintendo projected 18m for the current fiscal year, I thought it was stupidly low.  However if that only counts the Switch and not the Switch Lite, then I think 18m is about right.  Kind of depends on what they meant.

They had to have known that Switch Lite was releasing, but then they also count Switch Lite as part of the same family, not a separate console, like DS Lite was to the original DS. So maybe they were figuring that Switch Lite would eat into the flagship Switch's sales as some people that might otherwise have stopped holding out for an all handheld version and bought the flagship Switch suddenly had their hopes answered and would be buying the Lite. But then again, they should be counting or hoping to count the Lite's sales in with the flagship Switch's sales, so why would they lowball it? My thought is that maybe they're waiting to see how public perception plays out, so that if shareholders regard Lite's sales separately and want to see the target met with just the flagship console, they have a lower goalpost to fall back on, but if things play out as they hope and they convince everyone that Lite is just a Switch that doesn't hook to the TV or detach controllers, then they get to add the Lite's sales to the flagship Switch and absolutely blow past their goalpost, impressing investors either way. It would be like getting to add 3DS and Wii U together as a single sales target back in that era, which would have been a godsend then, but is just a thick layer of icing on an already sweet cake nowadays.



ArchangelMadzz said:
HylianSwordsman said:

That's a bit surprising, but I think it'll be pretty close in the end. Given that Switch is over a million ahead of where it was last year, it probably won't lose that lead on its previous year, and that makes it on track to sell 17,565,922 at the moment for 2019. Given that Nintendo's sales are holiday heavy, that lead will probably increase a bit in the end, so Switch will inevitably close much of that gap with PS4's 2018, and might even surpass it in the end. Clearly barring a disaster Switch's 2019 will beat its 2018, so the Switch 2019 to PS4 2018 race will probably be more interesting to watch.

Will be interesting to see how it all leans up in the end as they've got a 1 million deficit to overcome. But still good on PS4 year 5 being that much in front of Switch year 3 half way through the year.

PS4 is after all one of the best selling systems of all time when all is said and done. It had a great 5th year. I think it was Reggie that mentioned it a couple of years ago (maybe last year?) that Nintendo pretty much always has roughly 50% of it's hardware sales in the Holiday quarter. So a non Nintendo system selling 18M in a year is very likely to be quite far ahead of a Nintendo one at the half mark.



PAOerfulone said:

Now that we're halfway through the year, let's do some math.

At this point last year, the PlayStation 4, Xbox One, and Nintendo Switch sold through 38.9812223%, 32.06302907%, and 29.71417668% of their final 2018 totals respectively.
If those same percentages hold for this year, these would be the projected final yearly totals for all three systems in 2019:

PlayStation 4 - 13,444,532
Xbox One - 4,922,161
Nintendo Switch - 20,424,830

Sony needs to give the PS4 a price cut NOW! RIGHT NOW! There's nothing Microsoft can do for the Xbox One that will make it's situation any better. And the Switch Lite just threw a monkey wrench into how the Switch will turn out, there's no telling at the moment if it'll be lower or higher than the number I have projected here, that's the most interesting thing to watch for.

Why cut price to keep up with the switch this late in the gen? They gonna break 100+ million regardless and they better off making the extra revenue at the higher price while still selling reasonable well with all the competition.



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loy310 said:
PAOerfulone said:

Now that we're halfway through the year, let's do some math.

At this point last year, the PlayStation 4, Xbox One, and Nintendo Switch sold through 38.9812223%, 32.06302907%, and 29.71417668% of their final 2018 totals respectively.
If those same percentages hold for this year, these would be the projected final yearly totals for all three systems in 2019:

PlayStation 4 - 13,444,532
Xbox One - 4,922,161
Nintendo Switch - 20,424,830

Sony needs to give the PS4 a price cut NOW! RIGHT NOW! There's nothing Microsoft can do for the Xbox One that will make it's situation any better. And the Switch Lite just threw a monkey wrench into how the Switch will turn out, there's no telling at the moment if it'll be lower or higher than the number I have projected here, that's the most interesting thing to watch for.

Why cut price to keep up with the switch this late in the gen? They gonna break 100+ million regardless and they better off making the extra revenue at the higher price while still selling reasonable well with all the competition.

This is not for them to keep up with the Switch. This is to match their sales prediction of 16M for this year. They sold 18M last year, so they're allowed to loose 2M compared to then. But now, after just half a year, that gap is already close to 1.8M, so almost all of the buffer has been eaten up. In other words, the PS4 needs a pricecut not to compete with the Switch, but to keep up with it's sales from last year to match their own sales target.



Just posted week 27 numbers.

One interesting stat I should note is that these last 2 weeks, the Switch had its highest YoY growths over last year with increases of 88 and 90k each... Right before the announcement of the Nintendo Switch Lite and the revision of the OG Switch model. Now we're gonna see what kind of effects those announcements will have on sales moving forward until their releases.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

Perfect. SONY will have to revise a lower target, the share will collapse a bit and there will be a good moment to buy cheap shares.



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Just added Week 28 Numbers and I also had to post some very minor adjustments.
All three systems have been adjusted up... but just by a liiiittle bit. You REALLY had to have been paying attention to notice the difference.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

I wanted to wait a little while of Nintendo and Sony's reports before I updated the figures, but I have now done so, along with posting week 29 numbers.

The Xbox One has stayed the same, meanwhile, the Switch was adjusted slightly down and the PS4 was adjusted way up.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387