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January NPD 2019

Forums - Sales Discussion - January NPD 2019

[Ps4] 250K
[NsW] 220K
[XB1] 210K



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On a side note, some of you may have heard analysts predicts that 2019 will see the first major contraction in the industry in a while as saturation become a real thing for PS4 and Xbox. I think that is a bit overstated for a few reasons:
1. The Switch is padding out the hardware numbers and will will help supplement sales for this year while we wait on next gen.
2. The enormous install base of the PS4 will mean that software can still sell.
3. Digital services and especially PSN are moving heaven and earth meaning that those sales data are not always immediately available and ever increasing.



CosmicSex said:
On a side note, some of you may have heard analysts predicts that 2019 will see the first major contraction in the industry in a while as saturation become a real thing for PS4 and Xbox. I think that is a bit overstated for a few reasons:
1. The Switch is padding out the hardware numbers and will will help supplement sales for this year while we wait on next gen.

I think this especially will make the transition not look as bad. At this point in time last generation we had the massive decline of the Wii, DS & PSP brands so with PS3/360 showing their age it really looked dedicated gaming was on the way out.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Nothing yet? Good I get to predict then.

[NSW] 250k
[PS4] 215K
[XB1] 145K



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Farsala said:
Nothing yet? Good I get to predict then.

[NSW] 250k
[PS4] 215K
[XB1] 145K

Nope, physical release was delayed until Tuesday when the full report is released so we should get leaks tomorrow night or the following morning.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

[NSW] 270K
[PS4] 235K
[XB1] 165K

I'm just a bit more optimistic than Farsala on all 3.



CosmicSex said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
[NSW] 283K
[PS4] 228K
[XB1] 177K

I fear not even the 1-2 punch of KH3 and RE2 will be nearly enough to push Switch from the throne.

However, if the Switch wins by a considerable margin, then I will start to doubt that the PS4 will be able to keep up until the holiday season with the Switch in the US this year - and by extension worldwide.

The PS4 is nearly at 100 million.  And it is over 5 years old.  At some point, it has to slow down.  Here are the options:

If the PS4 gets a hefty cut during holidays, it can still sell, but I would like to see the corporate projections first before picking a winner.

If the PS5 is announced to be launching sooner than we realize, then it should soften PS4 sales.

If the PS5 is coming and the rumored Portable version is announced as well as the console version, then Nintendo needs to watch out.

I know all this. Thing is just, if the Switch is very far in front while dillydallying then the prospects of those who said that the PS4 will keep up with Switch sales until the holidays season looks rather grim.

I'm actually more waiting for February NPD since the January Switch numbers are getting skewed a bit from the Smash Ultimate boost, but by February this should have normalized. The other question that month is how much, if at all, multiplats like Apex and Anthem can boost the aging consoles that month



CosmicSex said:
Megiddo said:
Sony is not dumb enough to attempt another portable.

At least, I hope not.

According to the channels I have been watching and with respect to Sony's own pre-Switch patents, I am gonna throw my hat in the ring and say we get 2 PS5s:

A standard PS5 with full backwards compatibility to all existing Sony console games.

A PS5 lite with full PSP, PS4 and PS5 support. And Vita support.  One assumes that PSOne support and possibly PS2 support will be considered as well.  

The idea of playing KH3, Call of Duty, Marvel Vs Capcom. Horizon Zero Dawn, Spiderman and God of War in portable is far from dumb.  

The support from this rumor comes from many sources including Japanese outlets, insiders, AMD's confirmation that Navi is scalable architecture, and of course Sony's own patents. 

The final source is also Sony and goes back to their comment about the Switch and what it takes to regain strong competitiveness in Japan against Nintendo.

A smaller console like that okay, but as a handhald that's downright impossible. Even reaching PS4 capacity without draining the battery in under an hour or becoming heavy as a big brick is pretty much impossible right now.

On a more humourous note, why did you leave out PS3? ^^



[NSW] 260K
[PS4] 200K
[XB1] 170K