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PS5 Coming at the End of 2020 According to Analyst: High-Spec Hardware for Under $500

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Price, SKUs, specs ?

Only Base Model, $399, 9-10TF GPU, 16GB RAM 11 29.73%
 
Only Base Model, $449, 10-12TF GPU, 16GB RAM 5 13.51%
 
Only Base Model, $499, 12-14TF GPU, 24GB RAM 10 27.03%
 
Base Model $399 and PREMIUM $499 specs Ans3 7 18.92%
 
Base Mod $399 / PREM $549, >14TF 24GB RAM 1 2.70%
 
Base Mod $449 / PREM $599, the absolute Elite 3 8.11%
 
Total:37

I added a Poll, with really basic info; not enough space there to write, and only 6 options. We'll see who come closer after an official announcement.

My 2 cents :

If only one SKU will be available : $449, 10-12TF GPU, 16GB RAM.
If 2 SKUs will be available : Base Model $449, 10-12TF GPU, 16GB RAM / Premium $549, >14TF 24GB RAM.

 

 



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CGI-Quality said:





Thus, here's what I expect (based on the visuals I've seen, the expectations of the time, and the idea of affordability remaining at the forefront)

PS5 or Xbox Next

$399 starting point for PS5

Specs: 

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Navi
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

$399 start point for Xbox Next

Specs:

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Perhaps Navi (a little foggier here)
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

The premium machines? Roughly 20GB of G6, a faster Zen 2, faster Navi GPU, and maybe a 6TB HDD (remember, they won't go but so crazy here given we're talking $600 at most).

Hmm I think the whole point for microsoft to launch multiple Skus is to undercut Sony in price, so a 300$ and 500$ console is what I expect, Sony will likely stick to 400$. A 400$ and 500-600$ console from Microsoft won't do anything and Sony will easily win next-gen again.

As for your specs, we will probably get 8 cores (Zen2), I don't see 12 cores being possible because of transistor budget and power budget, we might even have just 4 cores but I think that chance is low.

Hard drive just doesn't make sense, 4TB? At most 2TB, we won't seeing any desktop mechanical drives and 4TB laptops drives there is none except extra big ones in physical size. No I think both Sony and Microsoft will go for 1TB SSD or NVMe drive and use it with AMDs High-bandwitdh cache controller (HBCC) and go for less GDDR6 Ram, so 8-12 GB ram for Xbox two, 12-16 GB ram for PS5 and 16-24 GB ram for Xbox two+.



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CGI-Quality said:

The thing to remember is this ~ while a $599 premium console in 2020 would be juicy, it will still take a lot of VRAM to pull off what many people are looking forward to. I was just explaining this to the mod team. 

We'll take hair, as an example. If you remember the early days of TressFX, you'll note the revolution at the time. Nothing was like it, and while it could cause some performance hiccups, it worked relatively well. The reason? It was one of the first pieces of core fibermesh hair of its time. High in polycount, but easy on VRAM (why the PS4 and Xbox One could handle it). However, had the hair been a transmapped piece, the machines, including powerful 2013 PCs, would have struggled immensely. Why? Because transmapped hair uses bigger map sizes (sometimes double that of fibermesh), which requires a boatload more VRAM and also renders much slower.

And that's just hair. There is still grass and many fiber-like elements to think about. As I've said from the beginning, I expect next consoles 9the base models) to sport about 16GB of RAM. This way, they'll be able to dedicate at least 10-12 for gaming and have a reserve of about 4GB (this is standar random access memory procedure). 


Thus, here's what I expect (based on the visuals I've seen, the expectations of the time, and the idea of affordability remaining at the forefront)

PS5 or Xbox Next

$399 starting point for PS5

Specs: 

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Navi
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

$399 start point for Xbox Next

Specs:

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Perhaps Navi (a little foggier here)
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

The premium machines? Roughly 20GB of G6, a faster Zen 2, faster Navi GPU, and maybe a 6TB HDD (remember, they won't go but so crazy here given we're talking $600 at most).

GDDR5 ram is pretty much impossible. That will ensure a bandwidth bottleneck right out the gate. 

16GB of GDDR6 with a 256bit bus is actually the easiest and most straight forward thing they could do with regards to RAM upgrades. And will cost about 30% more than it cost sony today for 8GB of GDDR5. But I think thats the minimum to expect. I expect the consoles will have 24GB of RAM. The ease to implement and overall benefits are just too great to ignore. Mind you this will be going with a set-up similar to what the XB1X had in 2017 but with GDDR6 as oppsed to GDDR5.

There is no way they are putting in a 4TB 2.5" HDD that would probably cost them around $50 at OEM pricing. If they are going to spend that much then they will  go with a 1TB SSD instead Again the benefits of having every console having an SSD and what that means for devs are to much too ignore. Especially when you consider they will be lading 16GB worth of assets this time around versus 5GB. Besides, having support for external drives on day one will be a given.

And this premium launch console thing...... I think people are going to be surprised.

In my own personal opinion, I don't think they can.... Only way MS makes a "premium" console is if sony makes a $400 console. What i think will happen is that sony will make a $550 to $600 that they will sell for $499. This doesn't give MS a lot of room to do much better so MS will match it the best way it can. Think of these as the 4k consoles.

Now the difference is that MS will also make a cheaper console. With the same CPU but much weaker GPU and about 25% less RAM. Call this the 1080p console and that console will be at least $100 cheaper. Funny thing is it could even do this while using the same APU designed for the $500 SKU. But the thing is...... so could sony.



Intrinsic said:
CGI-Quality said:

The thing to remember is this ~ while a $599 premium console in 2020 would be juicy, it will still take a lot of VRAM to pull off what many people are looking forward to. I was just explaining this to the mod team. 

We'll take hair, as an example. If you remember the early days of TressFX, you'll note the revolution at the time. Nothing was like it, and while it could cause some performance hiccups, it worked relatively well. The reason? It was one of the first pieces of core fibermesh hair of its time. High in polycount, but easy on VRAM (why the PS4 and Xbox One could handle it). However, had the hair been a transmapped piece, the machines, including powerful 2013 PCs, would have struggled immensely. Why? Because transmapped hair uses bigger map sizes (sometimes double that of fibermesh), which requires a boatload more VRAM and also renders much slower.

And that's just hair. There is still grass and many fiber-like elements to think about. As I've said from the beginning, I expect next consoles 9the base models) to sport about 16GB of RAM. This way, they'll be able to dedicate at least 10-12 for gaming and have a reserve of about 4GB (this is standar random access memory procedure). 


Thus, here's what I expect (based on the visuals I've seen, the expectations of the time, and the idea of affordability remaining at the forefront)

PS5 or Xbox Next

$399 starting point for PS5

Specs: 

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Navi
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

$399 start point for Xbox Next

Specs:

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Perhaps Navi (a little foggier here)
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

The premium machines? Roughly 20GB of G6, a faster Zen 2, faster Navi GPU, and maybe a 6TB HDD (remember, they won't go but so crazy here given we're talking $600 at most).

GDDR5 ram is pretty much impossible. That will ensure a bandwidth bottleneck right out the gate. 

16GB of GDDR6 with a 256bit bus is actually the easiest and most straight forward thing they could do with regards to RAM upgrades. And will cost about 30% more than it cost sony today for 8GB of GDDR5. But I think thats the minimum to expect. I expect the consoles will have 24GB of RAM. The ease to implement and overall benefits are just too great to ignore. Mind you this will be going with a set-up similar to what the XB1X had in 2017 but with GDDR6 as oppsed to GDDR5.

There is no way they are putting in a 4TB 2.5" HDD that would probably cost them around $50 at OEM pricing. If they are going to spend that much then they will  go with a 1TB SSD instead Again the benefits of having every console having an SSD and what that means for devs are to much too ignore. Especially when you consider they will be lading 16GB worth of assets this time around versus 5GB. Besides, having support for external drives on day one will be a given.

And this premium launch console thing...... I think people are going to be surprised.

In my own personal opinion, I don't think they can.... Only way MS makes a "premium" console is if sony makes a $400 console. What i think will happen is that sony will make a $550 to $600 that they will sell for $499. This doesn't give MS a lot of room to do much better so MS will match it the best way it can. Think of these as the 4k consoles.

Now the difference is that MS will also make a cheaper console. With the same CPU but much weaker GPU and about 25% less RAM. Call this the 1080p console and that console will be at least $100 cheaper. Funny thing is it could even do this while using the same APU designed for the $500 SKU. But the thing is...... so could sony.

Yep it's better to have an internal SSD of 512MB or 1GB and a very clever management of memory for your external HDD (so it can have what is needed to run the games you are using more recent) is a lot better than 4 or higher internal HDD.



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I can't believe some of you think they'll just throw 1TB SSDs in these things, but then, some of you also expect 32GB consoles. :P Also, you can't call anything a 'bottleneck' without knowing the entirety of the technology that's going into the chassis.

Regardless, Pem and I have done our best, so there's not really much else to argue. We'll just wait for the first specs to start being revealed later this year.

Last edited by CGI-Quality - on 11 February 2019

                                                                                                                                            

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CGI-Quality said:
I can't believe some of you think they'll just throw 1TB SSDs in these things, but then, some of you also expect 32GB consoles. :P Also, you can't call anything a 'bottleneck' without knowing the entirety of the technology that's going into the chassis.

Regardless, Pem and I have done our best, so there's not really much else to argue. We'll just wait for the first specs to start being revealed later this year.

SSD isn't really needed with consoles. They boot up fast enough from regular harddrives. A PC on the other hand can take forever to boot up. 



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I hope RAM prices go back to normal until then. 16GB of DDR5 for gaming would be nice.



OttoniBastos said:
I hope RAM prices go back to normal until then. 16GB of DDR5 for gaming would be nice.

I'm assuming you meant this and are referring to System RAM.



                                                                                                                                            

CGI-Quality said:
OttoniBastos said:
I hope RAM prices go back to normal until then. 16GB of DDR5 for gaming would be nice.

I'm assuming you meant this and are referring to System RAM.

 

Yes! I'm talking about normal RAM,not the GDDR type used on GPUs. Do you think Sony is more likely to go for GDDR6 since they used GDDR on PS4?

OttoniBastos said:
CGI-Quality said:

I'm assuming you meant this and are referring to System RAM.

 

Yes! I'm talking about normal RAM,not the GDDR type used on GPUs. Do you think Sony is more likely to go for GDDR6 since they used GDDR on PS4?

 I do, or G5X (at the lowest), but as I noted, that is unlikely given the purported timeframe of release (2020). This doesn't include the potential for slower RAM aimed at tackling simpler tasks.