Quantcast
PS5 Coming at the End of 2020 According to Analyst: High-Spec Hardware for Under $500

Forums - Sony Discussion - PS5 Coming at the End of 2020 According to Analyst: High-Spec Hardware for Under $500

Price, SKUs, specs ?

Only Base Model, $399, 9-10TF GPU, 16GB RAM 18 26.87%
 
Only Base Model, $449, 10-12TF GPU, 16GB RAM 10 14.93%
 
Only Base Model, $499, 12-14TF GPU, 24GB RAM 18 26.87%
 
Base Model $399 and PREMIUM $499 specs Ans3 10 14.93%
 
Base Mod $399 / PREM $549, >14TF 24GB RAM 5 7.46%
 
Base Mod $449 / PREM $599, the absolute Elite 6 8.96%
 
Total:67

The thing to remember is this ~ while a $599 premium console in 2020 would be juicy, it will still take a lot of VRAM to pull off what many people are looking forward to. I was just explaining this to the mod team. 

We'll take hair, as an example. If you remember the early days of TressFX, you'll note the revolution at the time. Nothing was like it, and while it could cause some performance hiccups, it worked relatively well. The reason? It was one of the first pieces of core fibermesh hair of its time. High in polycount, but easy on VRAM (why the PS4 and Xbox One could handle it). However, had the hair been a transmapped piece, the machines, including powerful 2013 PCs, would have struggled immensely. Why? Because transmapped hair uses bigger map sizes (sometimes double that of fibermesh), which requires a boatload more VRAM and also renders much slower.

And that's just hair. There is still grass and many fiber-like elements to think about. As I've said from the beginning, I expect next consoles (the base models) to sport about 16GB of RAM. This way, they'll be able to dedicate at least 10-12 for gaming and have a reserve of about 4GB (this is standar random access memory procedure). 


Thus, here's what I expect (based on the visuals I've seen, the expectations of the time, and the idea of affordability remaining at the forefront)

PS5 or Xbox Next

$399 starting point for PS5

Specs: 

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Navi
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

$399 start point for Xbox Next

Specs:

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Perhaps Navi (a little foggier here)
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

The premium machines? Roughly 20GB of G6, a faster Zen 2, faster Navi GPU, and maybe a 6TB HDD (remember, they won't go but so crazy here given we're talking $600 at most).

Last edited by CGI-Quality - on 11 February 2019

                                                                                                                                            

Around the Network
CGI-Quality said:

The thing to remember is this ~ while a $599 premium console in 2020 would be juicy, it will still take a lot of VRAM to pull off what many people are looking forward to. I was just explaining this to the mod team. 

We'll take hair, as an example. If you remember the early days of TressFX, you'll note the revolution at the time. Nothing was like it, and while it could cause some performance hiccups, it worked relatively well. The reason? It was one of the first pieces of core fibermesh hair of its time. High in polycount, but easy on VRAM (why the PS4 and Xbox One could handle it). However, had the hair been a transmapped piece, the machines, including powerful 2013 PCs, would have struggled immensely. Why? Because transmapped hair uses bigger map sizes (sometimes double that of fibermesh), which requires a boatload more VRAM and also renders much slower.

And that's just hair. There is still grass and many fiber-like elements to think about. As I've said from the beginning, I expect next consoles 9the base models) to sport about 16GB of RAM. This way, they'll be able to dedicate at least 10-12 for gaming and have a reserve of about 4GB (this is standar random access memory procedure). 


Thus, here's what I expect (based on the visuals I've seen, the expectations of the time, and the idea of affordability remaining at the forefront)

PS5 or Xbox Next

$399 starting point for PS5

Specs: 

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Navi
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

$399 start point for Xbox Next

Specs:

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Perhaps Navi (a little foggier here)
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

The premium machines? Roughly 20GB of G6, a faster Zen 2, faster Navi GPU, and maybe a 6TB HDD (remember, they won't go but so crazy here given we're talking $600 at most).

Yep.  Hair, animation of vegetation, fluid animation/dynamics should be vastly improved in next gen, at least this is my hope.

 I posted this on second page, but it was missed.

""Let's take XBox One base model and XBox One X as examples.    The biggest difference between the two is the GPU and Ram. The CPUs are quiet similar, not a big difference, apart from some optimizations and clock speed.   So what do we have in the end ?  The "core" of the game is the same, they play "exactly" the same(mechanics), also physics, AI, animations, system collision are the same.  The graphics, IQ and frame rate on the other hand see the biggest jump from the base model to X model, almost night and day.  So, basicly,   when 2 SKUs have similar CPU performance and dramatic differences in GPU and memory speed, Scalability is mostly in the graphics/IQ/frame rate department right ? Now, what if 2 SKUs have also a dramatic difference in CPU performance? How scalability can work in areas such as physics, animations, system collision, interactions with the environment, AI and game-play mechanics ? How much more complex is "scalability" in those areas ?  Can this be taken into account by the developers, is it feasible, or too complex and costy for the majority of developers ?

 In few words, it is a waste to have 2 SKUs with dramatic differences in CPU/GPU and RAM, or Devs might really take advantage of the more powerful SKU with the right development Kit and advanced scalability ?

 Any thoughts ?""

 In case the Premium Model(if we will have one), is significally more powerful than the Base model, and this should be the case, can "scalability" be used also for extra animations, better animations for hair, vegetation and fluid dynamics ?  



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

CGI-Quality said:

The thing to remember is this ~ while a $599 premium console in 2020 would be juicy, it will still take a lot of VRAM to pull off what many people are looking forward to. I was just explaining this to the mod team. 

We'll take hair, as an example. If you remember the early days of TressFX, you'll note the revolution at the time. Nothing was like it, and while it could cause some performance hiccups, it worked relatively well. The reason? It was one of the first pieces of core fibermesh hair of its time. High in polycount, but easy on VRAM (why the PS4 and Xbox One could handle it). However, had the hair been a transmapped piece, the machines, including powerful 2013 PCs, would have struggled immensely. Why? Because transmapped hair uses bigger map sizes (sometimes double that of fibermesh), which requires a boatload more VRAM and also renders much slower.

And that's just hair. There is still grass and many fiber-like elements to think about. As I've said from the beginning, I expect next consoles 9the base models) to sport about 16GB of RAM. This way, they'll be able to dedicate at least 10-12 for gaming and have a reserve of about 4GB (this is standar random access memory procedure). 


Thus, here's what I expect (based on the visuals I've seen, the expectations of the time, and the idea of affordability remaining at the forefront)

PS5 or Xbox Next

$399 starting point for PS5

Specs: 

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Navi
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

$399 start point for Xbox Next

Specs:

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Perhaps Navi (a little foggier here)
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

The premium machines? Roughly 20GB of G6, a faster Zen 2, faster Navi GPU, and maybe a 6TB HDD (remember, they won't go but so crazy here given we're talking $600 at most).

4TB HDs? Nah, they'll start with 2TB (PS4 was 500gb for years with 50gb games mandatory installs).

Will probably have faster CPUs as well, and I fully expect 32GB of RAM (At least 24 if they chose to save the 32 for the upgrade, either way, it'll reach 32 this next generation).

Also, they'll start at 499, not 399.

There is no reason to sell for that low anymore, with people being used to pay a lot more yearly on smartphones and the way XBX was already going for 499 years before them and that was ok.

Gen 9 starts at 499, for both PS5 and XB4.

Look foward to machines a bit juicier than you are right now.



Nate4Drake said:
CGI-Quality said:

~ snip

In case the Premium Model(if we will have one), is significally more powerful than the Base model, and this should be the case, can "scalability" be used also for extra animations, better animations for hair, vegetation and fluid dynamics ?  

Potentially. That depends on the game/scenario.



                                                                                                                                            

BraLoD said:
CGI-Quality said:

~ snip

4TB HDs? Nah, they'll start with 2TB (PS4 was 500gb for years with 50gb games mandatory installs).

Will probably have faster CPUs as well, and I fully expect 32GB of RAM (At least 24 if they chose to save the 32 for the upgrade, either way, it'll reach 32 this next generation).

Also, they'll start at 499, not 399.

There is no reason to sell for that low anymore, with people being used to pay a lot more yearly on smartphones and the way XBX was already going for 499 years before them and that was ok.

Gen 9 starts at 499, for both PS5 and XB4.

Look foward to machines a bit juicier than you are right now.

A 4TB HDD will be nothing to implement (we're talking cheap things here). If it were a 4TB SSD, that would be different. We're also talking a bigger push for digital downloads, prompting larger HDDs.

No, there will not be 32GB consoles next gen, especially not of G6. Out of the question.

And no, $499 will not be the base price. It'll be $399 as I noted, with higher prices for a potential premium model. Aiming for affordability will take precedence over premium features, especially at launch.



                                                                                                                                            

Around the Network
CGI-Quality said:


PS5 or Xbox Next

$399 starting point for PS5

Specs: 

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Navi
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

$399 start point for Xbox Next

Specs:

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Perhaps Navi (a little foggier here)
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

The premium machines? Roughly 20GB of G6, a faster Zen 2, faster Navi GPU, and maybe a 6TB HDD (remember, they won't go but so crazy here given we're talking $600 at most).

I am thinking a single Zen 2 CCX/Chiplet for the CPU. So probably around 8 cores, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's 6 cores.
They will likely reserve a couple for the OS/Background tasks as well, so 8 might be more fitting.

We can't forget about AMDAHLS Law either.

But a Quad-Core Zen is still going to be a catastrophic upgrade over the 8-core Jaguars whichever way you go about it.

Nate4Drake said:

 I posted this on second page, but it was missed.

""Let's take XBox One base model and XBox One X as examples.    The biggest difference between the two is the GPU and Ram. The CPUs are quiet similar, not a big difference, apart from some optimizations and clock speed.   ""

 

Well. The Xbox One X's CPU is derived from the Xbox One's CPU, so there was never going to be dramatic differences between the two.
But the Xbox One X's CPU did learn a few new tricks... And many API functions were offloaded from the CPU and onto the GPU's command processor so that the CPU wasn't tasked with as much work.

So there is actually larger CPU gains than the raw numbers might otherwise imply.

CGI-Quality said:

A 4TB HDD will be nothing to implement (we're talking cheap things here). If it were a 4TB SSD, that would be different. We're also talking a bigger push for digital downloads, prompting larger HDDs.

No, there will not be 32GB consoles next gen, especially not of G6. Out of the question.

We are also on the cusp of next generation mechanical hard drives, the hard drive segment has stagnated in recent years... But that's changing.

Expect mechanical disks with 500MB/s sustained reads... With massive improvements in capacity. - So the need to jump over to solid state isn't there for all market segments just yet.



CGI-Quality said:
BraLoD said:

4TB HDs? Nah, they'll start with 2TB (PS4 was 500gb for years with 50gb games mandatory installs).

Will probably have faster CPUs as well, and I fully expect 32GB of RAM (At least 24 if they chose to save the 32 for the upgrade, either way, it'll reach 32 this next generation).

Also, they'll start at 499, not 399.

There is no reason to sell for that low anymore, with people being used to pay a lot more yearly on smartphones and the way XBX was already going for 499 years before them and that was ok.

Gen 9 starts at 499, for both PS5 and XB4.

Look foward to machines a bit juicier than you are right now.

A 4TB HDD will be nothing to implement (we're talking cheap things here). If it were a 4TB SSD, that would be different. We're also talking a bigger push for digital downloads, prompting larger HDDs.

No, there will not be 32GB consoles next gen, especially not of G6. Out of the question.

And no, $499 will not be the base price. It'll be $399 as I noted, with higher prices for a potential premium model. Aiming for affordability will take precedence over premium features, especially at launch.

Want to make a bet about the price point?

I say 499/500, you say 399/400 for the system as soon as the price get announced.

Who loses leave the site until the PS5 releases (or a new LoD is announced because I'll make fake accounts if needed to come scream here).



CGI-Quality said:

The thing to remember is this ~ while a $599 premium console in 2020 would be juicy, it will still take a lot of VRAM to pull off what many people are looking forward to. I was just explaining this to the mod team. 

We'll take hair, as an example. If you remember the early days of TressFX, you'll note the revolution at the time. Nothing was like it, and while it could cause some performance hiccups, it worked relatively well. The reason? It was one of the first pieces of core fibermesh hair of its time. High in polycount, but easy on VRAM (why the PS4 and Xbox One could handle it). However, had the hair been a transmapped piece, the machines, including powerful 2013 PCs, would have struggled immensely. Why? Because transmapped hair uses bigger map sizes (sometimes double that of fibermesh), which requires a boatload more VRAM and also renders much slower.

And that's just hair. There is still grass and many fiber-like elements to think about. As I've said from the beginning, I expect next consoles 9the base models) to sport about 16GB of RAM. This way, they'll be able to dedicate at least 10-12 for gaming and have a reserve of about 4GB (this is standar random access memory procedure). 


Thus, here's what I expect (based on the visuals I've seen, the expectations of the time, and the idea of affordability remaining at the forefront)

PS5 or Xbox Next

$399 starting point for PS5

Specs: 

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Navi
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

$399 start point for Xbox Next

Specs:

CPU: Zen 2 eight to twelve core @ 3GHz
GPU: Perhaps Navi (a little foggier here)
RAM:16GB G6 (could use G5X, but I doubt it)
HDD: 4TB

The premium machines? Roughly 20GB of G6, a faster Zen 2, faster Navi GPU, and maybe a 6TB HDD (remember, they won't go but so crazy here given we're talking $600 at most).

This^

People just keep asking for better graphics without realizing how quickly these things can add up. Oh, you'd like trees with zero alphamapping on the leaves/branches? Every part of that tree has to be 3D modeled now? Ok then, get ready for a massive increase in hardware needs. 

Also, I think you pretty much nailed the hardware of the PS5/XB2 launch models. A Pro/X version of either of those, two years after launch, would be great. 



BraLoD said:
CGI-Quality said:

A 4TB HDD will be nothing to implement (we're talking cheap things here). If it were a 4TB SSD, that would be different. We're also talking a bigger push for digital downloads, prompting larger HDDs.

No, there will not be 32GB consoles next gen, especially not of G6. Out of the question.

And no, $499 will not be the base price. It'll be $399 as I noted, with higher prices for a potential premium model. Aiming for affordability will take precedence over premium features, especially at launch.

Want to make a bet about the price point?

I say 499/500, you say 399/400 for the system as soon as the price get announced.

Who loses leave the site until the PS5 releases (or a new LoD is announced because I'll make fake accounts if needed to come scream here).

Nah, I don't care for bets. I just know trends and what the market desires. $499 base consoles isn't something to expect, regardless of the performance of the X1X (which merely prolonged the life of the Xbox One). There wasn't a sudden explosion of sales that pushed it to any unprecedented heights and next gen premium consoles won't either. 


Cerebralbore101 said:
CGI-Quality said:

~snip

This^

People just keep asking for better graphics without realizing how quickly these things can add up. Oh, you'd like trees with zero alphamapping on the leaves/branches? Every part of that tree has to be 3D modeled now? Ok then, get ready for a massive increase in hardware needs. 

Also, I think you pretty much nailed the hardware of the PS5/XB2 launch models. A Pro/X version of either of those, two years after launch, would be great. 

Indeed. People tend to discuss this stuff based on wants, which of course lacks a true understanding of the market. Not that I want to kill anyone's dreams, but I'm gonna be realistic, especially about this subject. 



                                                                                                                                            

CGI-Quality said:
BraLoD said:

Want to make a bet about the price point?

I say 499/500, you say 399/400 for the system as soon as the price get announced.

Who loses leave the site until the PS5 releases (or a new LoD is announced because I'll make fake accounts if needed to come scream here).

Nah, I don't care for bets. I just know trends and what the market desires. $499 base consoles isn't something to expect, regardless of the performance of the X1X (which merely prolonged the life of the Xbox One). There wasn't a sudden explosion of sales that pushed it to any unprecedented heights and next gen premium consoles won't either. 

I'm not found of bets either.

It just doesn't make sense to keep on 400 when they can push without a single problem nowdays.

They are there to make money, with 500 they are able to do more/lose less, and they'll definitely go that way, same for MS.

Regardless of XBX being an upgrade, the fact its selling better than the XBO for that price shows the market already fully accept it. Also does the surge of smartphones prices as I mentioned.

Long gone are the days of PS3 $599 disaster reveal, nowdays $499 for a very wanted piece of tech is nothing.

There is not a single reason for they to keep on 399, unless they want to REALLY bleed money to screw MS, which they don't need at all.

Anyway, want to make a bet without consequences then?

Whoever is right just need to come to the other to say he was right.