From what I've seen, the Holiday season is the worst time to launch a console.
First, if your console is good, your Holiday season is going to be good. It doesn't need the launch boost factor. Likewise, if your console is good, launch won't need the Holiday factor, either.
More importantly, you won't suffer from the impact of both factors on your supply potential. If you're going to be constrained at launch then it's pointless to be MORE constrained. Launching early in the year mitigates that somewhat relative to BOTH periods, as you and your retailers have a chance to recover and restock. Otherwise, you're missing a lot of possible sales all at once during optimal sales windows.
^ so much this.
That was why I voted April.
Maximise effect of launch sales, and have time to restock for holidays and not waste that sales potential.
I think this is a safer and better way to go about things as well.
Necro-bump this 2020: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=229249
Bumb in 2021: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9047071