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Forums - Sony Discussion - What's With The PS4 Sales Doubt?

 

Where Do You Think The PS4 Ends?

100M-110M 13 11.61%
 
111M-120M 30 26.79%
 
121M-130M 40 35.71%
 
131M-140M 21 18.75%
 
141M-150M 5 4.46%
 
150M+ 3 2.68%
 
Total:112
StreaK on 03 February 2019

My prediction still hasn't changed. For years now I have been saying 130 million. That seems very comfortable to me and I strongly believe we'll see those numbers for the PS4. If not, pretty damn close in the high 120's. IF it manages to actually surpass 130 million then damn, good for Sony, that's all I gotta say!



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Errorist76 on 04 February 2019
Intrinsic said:

 

 

Errorist76 said:
Considering it’ll be sold and supported for another 5 years or so, only had one pricedrop yet and will continue selling for 150-200 after PS5...especially if PS5 releases for more than 400,-, which is very likely imho, I don't see why it would sell less than 130 million.

No.... this is not 2006 and the PS5 is not going to be a $600 console in a space where there is a cheaper $400 console available.

I cant stress enough how important this is.

The people that buy in the first year mostly are the early adopters. If the console comes in at $399/$499 and is BC with the PS4 then all those early adopters not only have no reason to wait before buying they also have no reason to hold onto their PS4. Especially when you consider most will be in a position to trade in their old console.

No matter how much sony drops the price of the PS4 buying used will still be cheaper, and there will be a lot of used consoles up and about. That is going to really impact hw many new PS4s sony will be able to sell at that time.

I never said it would cost 600. 500 max, 450 is also possible. I wouldn’t bet on a 399,- price this time, especially when it has full BC. This goes for both manufacturers btw. 



PotentHerbs on 04 February 2019

120+ Million. I wouldn't be surprised to see 130+ Million though.



DavidKell on 04 February 2019

It could outsell the ps2 if they come out with a version more geared to stream example roku box. With small amount of storage (use external drives) and no disk drive.
Make it under $150 package it with free month of ps now ps vue and maybe a free game or two with massive advertisement. (especially 4k tv watching)
Can they do it and would they do it. First I am not sure the second probably not.



Intrinsic on 04 February 2019
Errorist76 said:

I never said it would cost 600. 500 max, 450 is also possible. I wouldn’t bet on a 399,- price this time, especially when it has full BC. This goes for both manufacturers btw. 

I never said you did.

Just pointing out hat the PS3 costing $600 and having a $400 rival on the market are big reasons as to why the PS2 went n t keep selling very well even after the PS3 was launched. 



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Kristof81 on 04 February 2019

Based on the PS3 sales curve, 125M. Both systems show very similar curve, with PS4 having stronger first 3 years (vs its peak), but it also dropped by around 5% in last year or so, compared to PS3. So if we take PS3 sales curve from years 6 to 9, adjust it by -5% and plug PS4 numbers, we'll end up with around 125M by the end of 2022. Of course that's if PS5 releases in 2020 as it'd correlate with the PS4's time of release in PS3's lifetime. 



KingofTrolls on 04 February 2019
Kristof81 said:

Based on the PS3 sales curve, 125M. Both systems show very similar curve, with PS4 having stronger first 3 years (vs its peak), but it also dropped by around 5% in last year or so, compared to PS3. So if we take PS3 sales curve from years 6 to 9, adjust it by -5% and plug PS4 numbers, we'll end up with around 125M by the end of 2022. Of course that's if PS5 releases in 2020 as it'd correlate with the PS4's time of release in PS3's lifetime. 

This is not 100% accurate because PS4 already surpassed PS3 by a mile, I think PS4, especially PS4 Pro, will be more enticing for gamers after PS5 launch than PS3 was after PS4, the PS4 has mooooore room for price cuts than PS3.

I think they will release PS4 Super Slim close before PS5.



CommandoII on 05 February 2019

I predicted 141-150 M. 

 

  I think it will have stronger legs than the ps3.  I think it will have enough retention, especially if PS5 is $500+ out the door.  Backwards compatibility will have people buying it clear through 2024.



Errorist76 on 05 February 2019
KingofTrolls said:
Kristof81 said:

Based on the PS3 sales curve, 125M. Both systems show very similar curve, with PS4 having stronger first 3 years (vs its peak), but it also dropped by around 5% in last year or so, compared to PS3. So if we take PS3 sales curve from years 6 to 9, adjust it by -5% and plug PS4 numbers, we'll end up with around 125M by the end of 2022. Of course that's if PS5 releases in 2020 as it'd correlate with the PS4's time of release in PS3's lifetime. 

This is not 100% accurate because PS4 already surpassed PS3 by a mile, I think PS4, especially PS4 Pro, will be more enticing for gamers after PS5 launch than PS3 was after PS4, the PS4 has mooooore room for price cuts than PS3.

I think they will release PS4 Super Slim close before PS5.

Yeah, definitely. With only one price drop yet, the diverse and stunning portfolio by the end of Its lifecycle AND the Pro now a thing, I have no doubts PS4 will have better legs than PS3 had, put in relation.



thismeintiel on 05 February 2019
Errorist76 said:
KingofTrolls said:

This is not 100% accurate because PS4 already surpassed PS3 by a mile, I think PS4, especially PS4 Pro, will be more enticing for gamers after PS5 launch than PS3 was after PS4, the PS4 has mooooore room for price cuts than PS3.

I think they will release PS4 Super Slim close before PS5.

Yeah, definitely. With only one price drop yet, the diverse and stunning portfolio by the end of Its lifecycle AND the Pro now a thing, I have no doubts PS4 will have better legs than PS3 had, put in relation.

Not really sure how well Pro will lengthen the PS4's legs.  I think the drop to $199 will have the most effect.  Reason being, if the PS5 is B/C with PS4 games, I'm sure it will also provide the kind of results we get from the Pro.  And if the Pro is $299 when the PS5 launches, and that is $399, I just don't see people really picking up the Pro.  At that point, you might as well save up a little longer and just invest in the PS5.