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What's With The PS4 Sales Doubt?

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Where Do You Think The PS4 Ends?

100M-110M 13 11.61%
 
111M-120M 30 26.79%
 
121M-130M 40 35.71%
 
131M-140M 21 18.75%
 
141M-150M 5 4.46%
 
150M+ 3 2.68%
 
Total:112

If PS4 for Calendar year 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 ships an average of about 11m a year over the 4 years then it will be at 138m by the end of 2022. Certainly possible but depends on the price Sony goes with.



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130M should be what it achieves.



thismeintiel said:
EricHiggin said:

Based on how predictable the Wii, 360, PS3, XB1, Pro, XB1X, and Switch all were, plus the more complicated the hardware, software, network, subscriptions, services, etc, situation get's overall in the console market, the harder it's going to be to predict in comparison to the past, which wasn't easy back then, as much sense as it may have made in hindsight.

Just giving an opinion on a portion of what may be causing the sales doubt. If none of what is rumored is true, or only the MS portion, then that doesn't change the fact that people may be concerned about PS4's continued sales longevity because of it.

That's cool.  Still, I just don't see what MS does really affecting the PS4 at this point in time.  If it affects anything at all, it would be the PS5.  There are going to still be people looking for a really cheap PS4 once it becomes readily available at $199, and $149, if Sony can get it that low.  And if they can only afford it at those prices, I doubt they have the kind of money to afford internet fast enough, and with no data cap, to stream XB2 games competently enough, so probably wouldn't be picking up a XB2 streaming box.

I think the biggest thing MS would screw up for PS4 sales, with multiple next gen XB consoles, would be Pro. If PS keeps selling Pro alongside PS4, with a single $399-$499 PS5, people who decide they would prefer the best PS4 model, would have to choose between a $299 Pro or $299 'XB2' base model with XB1X like specs. PS4 has the brand name and games behind it, but it's old tech in comparison to a next gen XB. Which is the consumer going to choose in a tech based age? Heaven forbid PS drops PS4 and only goes with Pro in a similar scenario. PS would be forced to sell Pro at $199 or $249 against a next gen base XB at $299. Pro at $249 for a year maybe, and then $199 beyond that, could be a really enticing draw though vs an 'XB2'.

As for a $149 XB streaming box vs a $199 PS4, odds are the majority of sales will still go to the PS4. Both that streaming box and base 'XB2' would be eating into late PS4 sales. That very easily could be at least a couple million less console sales each year for PS4. It's not like next gen XB would cause PS4 to tank, but in terms of overall sales, it will have an effect.

*Mind you, further thought makes me think dropping PS4 and going with Pro at $199, could actually solve both these problems the best. That way PS only has the Pro and PS5 on the market, and the Pro is way better value than the streaming box for slightly more, but a strong enough last gen console, for cheap enough, to mostly stave off the base 'XB2'.

Last edited by EricHiggin - on 03 February 2019

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Mnementh said:
Until I cleaned up my signature recently I still had the bets linked (I link long term stuff in my sig, so that I don't forget about it) with two guys, that seriously were betting PS3 would easily outsell Wii. And this weren't early lifecycle bets, at the time of the bets Wii was already above 100M and PS4 was near launch. So people just believe into ridiculous stuff. Because it fits their worldview or whatever.

PS3 outselling Wii wasn't too crazy.  I mean, its sales were starting to rise, while the Wii's were starting to fall, and it finished just ~15M behind it.  My guess is they were expecting the PS3 to have better legs after the PS4 launched, maybe match the PS1's ~20M after the PS2 launched.  Two things stopped that, though.  One, the PS3 was already 7 years old when the PS4 launched, and two, Sony wasn't able to get the price any lower than $199.

FentonCrackshell said:
thismeintiel said:

Well, 115M-120M is definitely more reasonable.  What is your prediction for PS4 sales this year?

 

13 million

I don't know.  I don't really see it dropping as much as ~27% this year.  Not with some big games still launching and, more than likely, a cut to $249.  I'm going to go with a drop of 15%, or 15M.  But, we shall see.

GribbleGrunger said:
As I've always said, above PS1, below PS2.

That's quite the range.

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 03 February 2019

My prediction still hasn't changed. For years now I have been saying 130 million. That seems very comfortable to me and I strongly believe we'll see those numbers for the PS4. If not, pretty damn close in the high 120's. IF it manages to actually surpass 130 million then damn, good for Sony, that's all I gotta say!



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Intrinsic said:

 

 

Errorist76 said:
Considering it’ll be sold and supported for another 5 years or so, only had one pricedrop yet and will continue selling for 150-200 after PS5...especially if PS5 releases for more than 400,-, which is very likely imho, I don't see why it would sell less than 130 million.

No.... this is not 2006 and the PS5 is not going to be a $600 console in a space where there is a cheaper $400 console available.

I cant stress enough how important this is.

The people that buy in the first year mostly are the early adopters. If the console comes in at $399/$499 and is BC with the PS4 then all those early adopters not only have no reason to wait before buying they also have no reason to hold onto their PS4. Especially when you consider most will be in a position to trade in their old console.

No matter how much sony drops the price of the PS4 buying used will still be cheaper, and there will be a lot of used consoles up and about. That is going to really impact hw many new PS4s sony will be able to sell at that time.

I never said it would cost 600. 500 max, 450 is also possible. I wouldn’t bet on a 399,- price this time, especially when it has full BC. This goes for both manufacturers btw. 



120+ Million. I wouldn't be surprised to see 130+ Million though.



It could outsell the ps2 if they come out with a version more geared to stream example roku box. With small amount of storage (use external drives) and no disk drive.
Make it under $150 package it with free month of ps now ps vue and maybe a free game or two with massive advertisement. (especially 4k tv watching)
Can they do it and would they do it. First I am not sure the second probably not.



Errorist76 said:

I never said it would cost 600. 500 max, 450 is also possible. I wouldn’t bet on a 399,- price this time, especially when it has full BC. This goes for both manufacturers btw. 

I never said you did.

Just pointing out hat the PS3 costing $600 and having a $400 rival on the market are big reasons as to why the PS2 went n t keep selling very well even after the PS3 was launched. 



Based on the PS3 sales curve, 125M. Both systems show very similar curve, with PS4 having stronger first 3 years (vs its peak), but it also dropped by around 5% in last year or so, compared to PS3. So if we take PS3 sales curve from years 6 to 9, adjust it by -5% and plug PS4 numbers, we'll end up with around 125M by the end of 2022. Of course that's if PS5 releases in 2020 as it'd correlate with the PS4's time of release in PS3's lifetime.