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What's With The PS4 Sales Doubt?

Forums - Sony Discussion - What's With The PS4 Sales Doubt?

Where Do You Think The PS4 Ends?

100M-110M 13 11.61%
 
111M-120M 30 26.79%
 
121M-130M 40 35.71%
 
131M-140M 21 18.75%
 
141M-150M 5 4.46%
 
150M+ 3 2.68%
 
Total:112
Kerotan said:
People have doubted it from the moment it was announced. These LTD predictions of 110m are super crazy. It's going to sell way more then that. Maybe they just enjoy the crow.

110 would be fine predictions compared to what we usually saw here.

People were laughing at other saying it would never reach 100M when it had already sold 60M so fast, or telling it would not even reach the PS3 sales...

I just don't really care enough about that as I once did or else I would dig those threads for you to see, they were insane.



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Kerotan said:
People have doubted it from the moment it was announced. These LTD predictions of 110m are super crazy. It's going to sell way more then that. Maybe they just enjoy the crow.

the moment it was announced? nah, certain ppl were convinced the PS4 was going to be Sony's last console for atleast a year before it was announced

@topic)

I see no realistic way for the PS4 to end up shipping less than 120m lifetime, with 130+m being my best guess right now and 140+m being a possibility. I think Sony could even release a PS4-handheld (straight up PS4 HW in a handheld) once we get to the 5nm process and with further battery tech improvements, which pretty certainly would make the PS4-family the best sold system.



A lot of optimistic projections here..

I voted for 120M-130M.

I expect the PS4 to be around 120M by the time the PS5 is released and I don't expect it t ell any more than 10M after the PS5 is released.

I know its easy to look at the PS2 and say the PS4 will go on to sell really well after the PS5 comes along but this is not 2006. The world is much different now. This is not a knock on the PS4, I just think the uptake of the PS5 will be even faster than that of the PS4. And the market will be flooded with used cheap PS4s.



Lafiel said:
Kerotan said:
People have doubted it from the moment it was announced. These LTD predictions of 110m are super crazy. It's going to sell way more then that. Maybe they just enjoy the crow.

the moment it was announced? nah, certain ppl were convinced the PS4 was going to be Sony's last console for atleast a year before it was announced

@topic)

I see no realistic way for the PS4 to end up shipping less than 120m lifetime, with 130+m being my best guess right now and 140+m being a possibility. I think Sony could even release a PS4-handheld (straight up PS4 HW in a handheld) once we get to the 5nm process and with further battery tech improvements, which pretty certainly would make the PS4-family the best sold system.

3nm sure..... 5nm not a chance. 

For a handheld to work you need to get the APU to pull no more than 20W. And thats just the start of your problems.



I said below 110 before but now I think between 115 and 120. This year will be weak for PS4.



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EricHiggin said:
thismeintiel said:

I think it is rather easily predictable. 

In order for MS to get back to the 360 days, two things have to happen.  One, they don't shoot themselves in the foot.  And two, Sony shoots themselves in their own.  I don't really see either shooting themselves in the foot.  Even with those things being met last gen, Sony was still able to recover and pass the 360 in the end.  PS is just that large of a WW brand.

Sony seems to be making another traditional home console, while MS is throwing everything at the wall next gen (streaming box, low-powered and a high-powered boxes, both of which have a download-only box) hoping something will stick.  The latter of which actually can lead to consumer confusion.  If MS is advertising for 4 or 5 different consoles, but Sony has a nice all-in-one PS5, that also is B/C with their previous consoles at launch, the PS5 is going to sell on simplicity and features alone.  Really, I think MS is going to continue to move their focus to PC gaming.  They'll give XB2 a big push at the beginning of the gen, but if they meet a fate worse than the XBO, I think they are done with consoles. 

As for the Switch, we already see its impact on the PS4 and vice versa.  There isn't one.  Sony is making a killing in the traditional home console market, while Nintendo is making a killing with their hybrid.  They are different enough, and offer their own positives, that people are buying both.  Sony isn't going to screw up their business model, that is extremely successful, to try and chase some other market.  A market that has dwindled since last gen, and one that they just had a massive failure in.  The most I could see Sony doing is some kind of cheap handheld streaming device that works with the PS5.  It still wouldn't be a big focus of theirs.  In other words, Sony is doing what it does best, powerful home consoles, and Nintendo is doing what it does best, unique handhelds (now, hybrids.)

Based on how predictable the Wii, 360, PS3, XB1, Pro, XB1X, and Switch all were, plus the more complicated the hardware, software, network, subscriptions, services, etc, situation get's overall in the console market, the harder it's going to be to predict in comparison to the past, which wasn't easy back then, as much sense as it may have made in hindsight.

Just giving an opinion on a portion of what may be causing the sales doubt. If none of what is rumored is true, or only the MS portion, then that doesn't change the fact that people may be concerned about PS4's continued sales longevity because of it.

That's cool.  Still, I just don't see what MS does really affecting the PS4 at this point in time.  If it affects anything at all, it would be the PS5.  There are going to still be people looking for a really cheap PS4 once it becomes readily available at $199, and $149, if Sony can get it that low.  And if they can only afford it at those prices, I doubt they have the kind of money to afford internet fast enough, and with no data cap, to stream XB2 games competently enough, so probably wouldn't be picking up a XB2 streaming box.

Intrinsic said:

A lot of optimistic projections here..

I voted for 120M-130M.

I expect the PS4 to be around 120M by the time the PS5 is released and I don't expect it t ell any more than 10M after the PS5 is released.

I know its easy to look at the PS2 and say the PS4 will go on to sell really well after the PS5 comes along but this is not 2006. The world is much different now. This is not a knock on the PS4, I just think the uptake of the PS5 will be even faster than that of the PS4. And the market will be flooded with used cheap PS4s.

Yea, I doubt many think that the PS4 is going to pull off what the PS2 did.  No console will.  ~50M after your successor is out is just crazy.  I guess it did help that the PS3 was so expensive.  And they were able to get the PS2 down to $99.  I think the cheapest we could ever see the PS4 at is $149.  Still, I can definitely see it doing 10M-15M after the PS5 launches.  The PS1 was able to pull off 20M+, even with the PS2 being B/C and having a MUCH faster adoption rate.  And the less popular PS3 did ~7.5M.



FentonCrackshell said:
I said below 110 before but now I think between 115 and 120. This year will be weak for PS4.

Well, 115M-120M is definitely more reasonable.  What is your prediction for PS4 sales this year?



I see PS4 ending in the 120M-140M range.

I am kind of surprised that people are arguing over this stuff. The PS4 has already won generation 8. Every successful console always gets a decent amount of sales on the tail end too. It kind of doesn't matter when the PS5 launches. The PS4 is just going to keep selling, just like every previous PS console did. Now that we are this far into the PS4's life, isn't the story pretty much written?



Intrinsic said:

A lot of optimistic projections here..

I voted for 120M-130M.

I expect the PS4 to be around 120M by the time the PS5 is released and I don't expect it t ell any more than 10M after the PS5 is released.

I know its easy to look at the PS2 and say the PS4 will go on to sell really well after the PS5 comes along but this is not 2006. The world is much different now. This is not a knock on the PS4, I just think the uptake of the PS5 will be even faster than that of the PS4. And the market will be flooded with used cheap PS4s.

especially if there's ps4 BC on PS5



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BraLoD said:
I remember all those "it won't reach 100M" posts, lol.
Even when PS4 sales would need to simply stop abruptly for that to be possible.
Anyway, my 120M prediction from day 1 is still holding up very well, I would say.

Some said it wouldn't even outsell the 3ds (I couldn't find the thread though)