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How many will be Nintendo's forecast for FY2019 ?

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Switch shipment forecast for FY2019 ?

below 17 5 5.10%
 
17 8 8.16%
 
18 18 18.37%
 
19 9 9.18%
 
20 34 34.69%
 
21 6 6.12%
 
22 6 6.12%
 
23 4 4.08%
 
24 1 1.02%
 
25 or more 7 7.14%
 
Total:98
JRPGfan said:
They overshipped this last year right? compaired to sales.
So.... Im guessing it ll be around 18m? or so for 2019.

What makes you think it was overshipped?



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zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

I already explained multiple times why is my reasoning for this year, for the next ones there's no possible way to explain them. 

As for the numbers, fair point. 

Shipped by fiscal year:

FY 2019  18M

FY 2020  11M

FY 2021  10M

FY 2022   7M

FY 2023   5M

So around 85M shipped by March 2024.

It's going to go from a 40% drop in FY20 to a 10% drop in FY21? That's an odd sales curve.

Like miyamotoo pointed out later, it was a weird sale drop curve indeed. The fact that I was doing that numbers by phone while watching a movie did not helped. I said later that 12M in 2020FY and 9M 2021FY is a better prediction. 



colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

I change quite a bit my post, so if you can reply to my changed post. Also, thats huge drop from 18m to 11m, I dont see thats kind of drop is possible in 4. year on market for Switch. Only around 10m more than 3DS sound to little for Switch.

Your 2019 and 2020 FY are very optimistic for my tastes. There's where our main differences come between us. 

And yes, I expect a huge drop in shipments in FY 2020. By 2020-2021 I expect Switch saturation mixed by next gen hype absorbing all the attention by the people who buys switch only as a home console. Remember that sales and shipments doesn't work the same so that's why expect some differences between sales and shipments with more sales than shipments in some years. 

Maybe in 2020 I was too low, maybe 12M instead of 11M and 9M instead of 10M in 2021 would be better. 

I gave you very clear points why 2019. can be around 20m, also that fall from 2019. to 2020. is really huge in any case. But yes, you definitely have pessimistic view for my taste. :)

Next gen will have atentione on lauch, but Switch will still have own market despite next gen consoles, biggest strenght of Switch will be peserved in any case, and thats hybrid concept (handheld play) and Nintendo Switch exclusive that are very popular, not to mentione that buy time PS5/XB2 arives with its price points of $400+, Switch will have around $200 price point with already built very strong lineup of games. Shipments and sales are same at end, if you look Nintendo numbers for every platform, they are all shipped, that goes for Switch, 3DS, Wii U, Wii, DS..

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

Even 12m going from 18m in one year is huge drop for 4. FY on market, that kind of drop (33%) not even Wii had in same period, that kind of drops are usualy at end of console lifes. 3DS had that kind of drop in its 4. FY on market because 3DS had very early in life huge price cuts and revisons, and later those things couldn't effect too much on sales, thats not case with Switch, Switch is entering its 3. year on market without price cut and revision, even without bundle with one game for launch price point.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 04 February 2019

Miyamotoo said:
colafitte said:

Your 2019 and 2020 FY are very optimistic for my tastes. There's where our main differences come between us. 

And yes, I expect a huge drop in shipments in FY 2020. By 2020-2021 I expect Switch saturation mixed by next gen hype absorbing all the attention by the people who buys switch only as a home console. Remember that sales and shipments doesn't work the same so that's why expect some differences between sales and shipments with more sales than shipments in some years. 

Maybe in 2020 I was too low, maybe 12M instead of 11M and 9M instead of 10M in 2021 would be better. 

I gave you very clear points why 2019. can be around 20m, also that fall from 2019. to 2020. is really huge in any case. But yes, you definitely have pessimistic view for my taste. :)

Next gen will have atentione on lauch, but Switch will still have own market despite next gen consoles, biggest strenght of Switch will be peserved in any case, and thats hybrid concept (handheld play) and Nintendo Switch exclusive that are very popular, not to mentione that buy time PS5/XB2 arives with its price points of $400+, Switch will have around $200 price point with already built very strong lineup of games. Shipments and sales are same at end, if you look Nintendo numbers for every platform, they are all shipped, that goes for Switch, 3DS, Wii U, Wii, DS..

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

Even 12m going from 18m in one year is huge drop for 4. FY on market, that kind of drop (33%) not even Wii had in same period, that kind of drops are usualy at end of console lifes. 3DS had that kind of drop in its 4. FY on market because 3DS had very early in life huge price cuts and revisons, and later those things couldn't effect too much on sales, thats not case with Switch, Switch is entering its 3. year on market without price cut and revision, even without bundle with one game for launch price point.

What I'm pretty sure is that switch is going to sell way less in 2020. So if you find going from 18M shipped to 12M shipped too much then maybe this year is going to be 17M instead of 18M.

If switch sold 16'5m last year I expect switch around 17-17'5m in 2019 because despite expecting more sales in Japan, I expect less sales in Europe and flat sales in USA.

And for 2020 I really expect switch selling around 12-13M so shipments has to be somewhat similar but if in 2019 shipments go too high, in 2020 they need to be a million or more lower than sales. That's my reasoning. 



23M , Nintendo has many more titles for 2019 than they had for 2018, FY2018 will close with 18M so 5 more milions isn't that unrealistic to achieve, especially if a new version of the Switch is planned like many newspapers reported



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I voted for 20 million but I think that's too high for the initial prediction. The revision at their latest briefing suggests some conservatism so I think 18 million or 19 million is a likelier forecast. Personally, with Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Luigi's Mansion 3 and a wider variety of original first-party titles (as opposed to ports) and greater third-party support (at retail and on the eShop), plus the likelihood of a Switch Mini hardware revision or pricecut if there is no revision, I think we're looking at a big year for Switch. I'm not expecting insane, DS or Wii peak numbers, but they could exceed 20 million in the next financial year, assuming they do have the combination of a revision, Pokemon and Animal Crossing paced throughout their financial year. I'll take a guess at 22 million for the financial year if Nintendo get their software right and get a hardware revision out.



colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

I gave you very clear points why 2019. can be around 20m, also that fall from 2019. to 2020. is really huge in any case. But yes, you definitely have pessimistic view for my taste. :)

Next gen will have atentione on lauch, but Switch will still have own market despite next gen consoles, biggest strenght of Switch will be peserved in any case, and thats hybrid concept (handheld play) and Nintendo Switch exclusive that are very popular, not to mentione that buy time PS5/XB2 arives with its price points of $400+, Switch will have around $200 price point with already built very strong lineup of games. Shipments and sales are same at end, if you look Nintendo numbers for every platform, they are all shipped, that goes for Switch, 3DS, Wii U, Wii, DS..

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

Even 12m going from 18m in one year is huge drop for 4. FY on market, that kind of drop (33%) not even Wii had in same period, that kind of drops are usualy at end of console lifes. 3DS had that kind of drop in its 4. FY on market because 3DS had very early in life huge price cuts and revisons, and later those things couldn't effect too much on sales, thats not case with Switch, Switch is entering its 3. year on market without price cut and revision, even without bundle with one game for launch price point.

What I'm pretty sure is that switch is going to sell way less in 2020. So if you find going from 18M shipped to 12M shipped too much then maybe this year is going to be 17M instead of 18M.

If switch sold 16'5m last year I expect switch around 17-17'5m in 2019 because despite expecting more sales in Japan, I expect less sales in Europe and flat sales in USA.

And for 2020 I really expect switch selling around 12-13M so shipments has to be somewhat similar but if in 2019 shipments go too high, in 2020 they need to be a million or more lower than sales. That's my reasoning. 

I talking about percent not about numbers, expecting around 33% less shipped numbers from 3. to 4. FY is huge drop in any case. There is no way that this FY will be 17m, if 2018. FY with weaker lineup, without price cut and revision will be at around 17m.

So by your point, better lineup, first price cut and first revision dont have effect on sales, espacily when we talk about consoles that yets need to enter its 3. year on market?



Miyamotoo said:
colafitte said:

What I'm pretty sure is that switch is going to sell way less in 2020. So if you find going from 18M shipped to 12M shipped too much then maybe this year is going to be 17M instead of 18M.

If switch sold 16'5m last year I expect switch around 17-17'5m in 2019 because despite expecting more sales in Japan, I expect less sales in Europe and flat sales in USA.

And for 2020 I really expect switch selling around 12-13M so shipments has to be somewhat similar but if in 2019 shipments go too high, in 2020 they need to be a million or more lower than sales. That's my reasoning. 

I talking about percent not about numbers, expecting around 33% less shipped numbers from 3. to 4. FY is huge drop in any case. There is no way that this FY will be 17m, if 2018. FY with weaker lineup, without price cut and revision will be at around 17m.

So by your point, better lineup, first price cut and first revision dont have effect on sales, espacily when we talk about consoles that yets need to enter its 3. year on market?

You told me 18M to 12M is a 33% drop and too much, and i tell you, that 17M shipped then is more probably so the drop is less.

And the "there is no way...." reminds me of some discussions we had about how much Switch was going to do in Q3 and Q4 and how there was no way Switch was going to ship just 9M in Q3, or that i was missing a point, etc according to you.....As proved..., there IS a way.

 

And don't put words in my mouth i did not say Miyamotoo!!. My point is, not better lineup, probably (not guaranteed) price cut or revision (not both of them at the same time), and if it's just a price cut, it won't be more than $50, so the sales won't be impacted as much as you want. If they do that is because they're afraid to drop sales from the year before. So without price drop, Switch should be around 16M this year, with price cut or revision, around 17-17'5M (shipments i am saying). That's really my point.

Last edited by colafitte - on 04 February 2019

colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

I talking about percent not about numbers, expecting around 33% less shipped numbers from 3. to 4. FY is huge drop in any case. There is no way that this FY will be 17m, if 2018. FY with weaker lineup, without price cut and revision will be at around 17m.

So by your point, better lineup, first price cut and first revision dont have effect on sales, espacily when we talk about consoles that yets need to enter its 3. year on market?

You told me 18M to 12M is a 33% drop and too much, and i tell you, that 17M shipped then is more probably so the drop is less.

And the "there is no way...." reminds me of some discussions we had about how much Switch was going to do in Q3 and Q4 and how there was no way Switch was going to ship just 9M in Q3, or that i was missing a point, etc according to you.....As proved..., there IS a way.

 

 

And don't put words in my mouth i did not say Miyamotoo!!. My point is, not better lineup, probably (not guaranteed) price cut or revision (not both of them at the same time), and if it's just a price cut, it won't be more than $50, so the sales won't be impacted as much as you want. If they do that is because they're afraid to drop sales from the year before. So without price drop, Switch should be around 16M this year, with price cut or revision, around 17-17'5M (shipments i am saying). That's really my point.

And there is very unlikely that this FY will be 17m, if 2018. FY with weaker lineup, without price cut and revision will be at around 17m.

I was saying around 10m hole time, at end Q3 shipment was 9.4m, that's actually is around 10m. Actualy only surprise is lowered forecasted Q4, 2.5m and that's less than even same period of last year, but we will know in month or two why Nintendo done that (maybe Nintendo will announce Switch Mini soon with launch in April-May and that would clearly effect on Q4 sales of FY 2018). 

 

But I already gave exact titles (and that's even without 3rd party games) that clearly shows that 2019. lineup will be stronger in any case than 2018. and you ignored that, you saying "not better lineup", but based on what? Certainly not on things we do know, and with  games we dont know lineup can be only much stronger.

But even $50 price difference will make notable boost in sales in any case (first price cut always do that), also its not point only about price cut, revisions itself boost sales. But imagine situation where you having low price point Switch Mini (like Nikkei rumored fey days ago suggested) for around $200, and than at end of year price cut for current Switch at $250.

"If they do that is because they're afraid to drop sales from the year before", this just show you dont know what you talking about, price cuts are not made only when sales are not good, but also when you want much stronger sales or much stronger software sales, or productions costs went down, every console, even best selling consoles of all time had price cuts and most of them had before 3rd year on market, by time cost of production of some console is going down so you have price cut while in same time you can keep same profit margin that you had before price cut.



For the Calendar year of 2019. I think this is Nintendo's year. So I am going to be a little crazy:

one MILLION consoles!



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