Quantcast
Switch is selling better than PS4, PS2, PS1, PS3, X360 launch aligned

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Switch is selling better than PS4, PS2, PS1, PS3, X360 launch aligned

Oh wow! Good job Switch!



NNID: Zephyr25 / PSN: Zephyr--25 / Switch: SW-4450-3680-7334

Around the Network
The_Liquid_Laser said:
thismeintiel said:

I wouldn't get too far ahead of yourself there.  That's the same kind of thinking that led people to believe Nintendo would hit 20M this FY and do 2.5M this past Dec in the US.  The Switch is successful, but its not the Wii in its prime.

I've been predicting Switch would become the best selling console of all time for a while now.  People are underestimating how many third party games the Switch will have.  They are also overestimating the effect of Western AAA third parties compared to all of the other third party games.  Switch is going to have a massive third party library, but it will miss lots of the big names that get mentioned most often.  I am betting quantity will beat quality (or budget).

The number of third party games on Switch is going to increase dramatically this year.  When the flood of games comes, then the console sales will follow.  

That's not going to happen, though.  If the Switch was going to become the best selling console ever, it would be above PS2.  And not the way it is presented in the OP, but country launches aligned, which it is not.  It will either have to sell like the PS2 late in its life, which means incredible legs, or like the DS, which means a shit ton of sales for the next 3 years.  For the PS2 path, it would need to sell 100M+ by the time the Switch 2 arrives, and then 60M+ afterwards.  Looking at DS, it shipped 35M+ after being on the market for ~2 years + 1 month.  The Switch will probably match it.  However, after another year, it had shipped another 29M+ units.  Then, the following year it shipped another 31M+ units.  28M+ the next.  Switch isn't coming close to that.  Well, maybe if Nintendo drops the price to $199 when Pokemon hits.

And while Switch will still sell fine after the PS5 hits, it will definitely not be the hot new piece of kit anymore, and will most likely be on a natural downward slope soon after.  The PS5 and XB2 will also illustrate an even larger gap in performance compared to the home consoles and hybrid Switch.  This may or may not have an impact on the public perception of price vs value when it comes to the Switch.  My guess is not much, but it will probably push Nintendo to turn their focus to a coming (more powerful) Switch 2, which will undoubtedly lead to decline in Switch releases from them.

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 31 January 2019

 

RolStoppable said:

ZhugeEX's chart is misleading because it doesn't take the staggered launch of the PS2 into account, but your comparison isn't better. Instead of properly aligning regions, you ignore the opening quarter of the PS2 in America and Europe and swap in the ninth quarter instead. Said ninth quarter is unsurprisingly superior to the omitted first quarter.

Taking information from an archived Sony website, the first eight fiscal quarters of each region amount to this:
https://web.archive.org/web/20120609161654/http://scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps2_e.html

Japan - 8.30m (December 2001)
America - 17.94m (September 2002)
Europe - 12.64m (September 2002)
Total - 38.88m

That's a difference of 4m in comparison to your number.

For completion's sake, it has to be noted that Sony's reporting method at the time was production shipments. This means a unit was counted as soon as it was packaged up and is on its way to a Sony warehouse where it was then waiting to be sold to a retailer. This is opposed to shipments as they are counted nowadays where a unit isn't counted until it has been sold to a retailer. It is unknown how many of the above units had yet to be sold to retailers, but two things are certain:

1. Sold to retailer shipments were lower than 38.88m.
2. Sold to retailer shipments at that point in time were higher than Switch's, because... well, common sense.

I ignored the launch quarter for the PS2, PS2, Wii, & 360 in the U.S. because those systems were Q4 launches. The Switch was a Q1 launch. This does matter for two main reasons: 1) aligning by launch month misaligns their respective holiday periods (e.g., the Switch first holiday period were its 9th & 10th months, whereas the PS4's 9th & 10th months in the U.S. were a July & August), and 2) launching during the holidays producing larger initial sales as it gets a further boost from December, while a Q1 launch results in a rapid drop in its second month as there is no major holiday shopping period to sustain high sales past launch month.

Therefore, I deemed it to be more accurate to compare the Switch's 2017 with the first full calendar year of the other systems. While the Switch's launch month was the sole month of Q1, the ~900k sales in the U.S. amounts to about a full quarter's worth of sales compared to later quarters. By doing this, you can align and compare the systems by their first full post-launch Q4, and get a better grasp of post-launch performances relative to each other. For LTD sales, the systems have to be aligned to a specific period, and this is a more accurate way of doing so than by aligning them to launch month.



 

thismeintiel said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I've been predicting Switch would become the best selling console of all time for a while now.  People are underestimating how many third party games the Switch will have.  They are also overestimating the effect of Western AAA third parties compared to all of the other third party games.  Switch is going to have a massive third party library, but it will miss lots of the big names that get mentioned most often.  I am betting quantity will beat quality (or budget).

The number of third party games on Switch is going to increase dramatically this year.  When the flood of games comes, then the console sales will follow.  

That's not going to happen, though.  If the Switch was going to become the best selling console ever, it would be above PS2.  And not the way it is presented in the OP, but country launches aligned, which it is not.  It will either have to sell like the PS2 late in its life, which means incredible legs, or like the DS, which means a shit ton of sales for the next 3 years.  For the PS2 path, it would need to sell 100M+ by the time the Switch 2 arrives, and then 60M+ afterwards.  Looking at DS, it shipped 35M+ after being on the market for ~2 years + 1 month.  The Switch will probably match it.  However, after another year, it had shipped another 29M+ units.  Then, the following year it shipped another 31M+ units.  28M+ the next.  Switch isn't coming close to that.  Well, maybe if Nintendo drops the price to $199 when Pokemon hits.

And while Switch will still sell fine after the PS5 hits, it will definitely not be the hot new piece of kit anymore, and will most likely be on a natural downward slope soon after.  The PS5 and XB2 will also illustrate an even larger gap in performance compared to the home consoles and hybrid Switch.  This may or may not have an impact on the public perception of price vs value when it comes to the Switch.  My guess is not much, but it will probably push Nintendo to turn their focus to a coming (more powerful) Switch 2, which will undoubtedly lead to decline in Switch releases from them.

I'm predicting Switch will sell more like the DS.  There will a spike in sales this year, especially near the end.  But then sales will get higher in 2020 and stay high in 2021 (and good legs after that, like the DS).  It will be more like the DS or PS1, both of which seemed slow out of the gate in retrospect.  Sometimes a console does much better one or two years later than you might first expect based on it's launch.  Switch is going to be a console like that.

Switch is already doing well based on its first party games, but it's going to get a lot more third party games and that will be noticable this year.  Hardware sales will follow.



 

Shadow1980 said:

Others have already mentioned the most glaring flaws of such comparisons: staggered regional launches and differences in what time of the year the system was released. Global sales never tell the whole story in and of themselves, and global LTD sales are an even less accurate comparison. This is not to say that the Switch is not doing very well, but that ZhugeEX's graph is misleading by insinuating that the Switch is doing better than it is, i.e. "better than PS2 numbers." If you take the PS2's shipment data for 2000+2001 in Japan and 2001+2002 in N. America and Europe, a different picture emerges. Adding those number up gives us a total of 42.96M units shipped. The Switch has shipped 32.3M combined for the 2017+2018 period. Looking at regional figures, it's easy to see how we end up with this corrected deficit. While the Switch has sold roughly on par with the PS2 in Japan, in the U.S. it has run a significant deficit (note that in these charts I count launch year for Q1 launches like the Switch as a full year as sales in Q1 amounted to about normal quarterly sales relative to other quarters):

Because of the lack in sales data for the PS2 in Europe, I have to use shipment data, while sales for the other systems I'll base on VGC data (which is usually nearly on the mark for annual and LTD figures after adjustments). There were 14.92M PS2s shipped in Europe during the 2001-2002 period, while according to VGC, the Wii sold about 13.5M in the 2007-2008 period, the 360 sold about 3.94M for the 2006-2007 period, the PS4 sold just over 13M in the 2014-2015 period, and the Switch has so far amassed 8.22M as of the week ending Dec. 29 (presumably the end of VGC's 2018 tracking period).

So, the Switch isn't even close to doing PS2 numbers globally, though it is close just in Japan. Against the PS4, the Switch is besting it by a huge margin in Japan, trailing it by a significant amount in Europe, and the two are about on par in the U.S. Against the Wii, the Switch is slightly ahead in Japan (and that margin will continue to grow as the Wii was very front-loaded in Japan), but trailing it by a significant amount in the U.S. & Europe. Against the 360, the Switch is obviously destroying it by an entire order of magnitude, and is handily outpacing it in Europe and the U.S.; however, it's worth pointing out that the 360 had a late and quite large peak in the U.S., selling over 14M units combined in the 2010-2011 period, and I somehow doubt that the Switch will be pulling those kind of numbers in the 2021-2022 period, that is unless it pulls off some miraculously anomalous DS-level growth. And to throw the 3DS on the pile, the Switch is outpacing it by a good bit in the U.S. & Europe but trailing it in Japan, likely due to its relatively high price point (not too bad for a home console, but expensive for a handheld).

Of course, what's happening now isn't what's going to happen in the coming years. No two sales curves are identical, and they're rarely even similar. If I had to guess, then based on what's typical for Nintendo systems I'd make the following lifetime estimates for the Switch:

U.S.: 35M
Europe: 30M
Japan: 20M (maybe 25M if it gets significant price reductions soon)
RoW: 5M

Total: 90M

Of course, it's still very early and the Switch could indeed see significant growth in the future, or it could peak this year. We don't really know yet. It just depends on what Nintendo has in the pipeline regarding major software releases (Pokemon Gen VIII will be the big one this year), price cuts, and, possibly, hardware revisions.

Great job and effort, I will just point that Switch is obviously not typical Nintendo system, its Nintendo integrated platform, and doenst mean only all Nintendo IPs on just one platform, but hole Nintendo support (in any case) just for one platform, thats very different to any previous Nintendo platform. Also, Nintendo said they planning that Switch has longer life span than usual 5-6 years and that's totally makes sense because its their only platform going forward.



Around the Network

 

Shadow1980 said: 

I ignored the launch quarter for the PS2, PS2, Wii, & 360 in the U.S. because those systems were Q4 launches. The Switch was a Q1 launch. This does matter for two main reasons: 1) aligning by launch month misaligns their respective holiday periods (e.g., the Switch first holiday period were its 9th & 10th months, whereas the PS4's 9th & 10th months in the U.S. were a July & August), and 2) launching during the holidays producing larger initial sales as it gets a further boost from December, while a Q1 launch results in a rapid drop in its second month as there is no major holiday shopping period to sustain high sales past launch month.

Therefore, I deemed it to be more accurate to compare the Switch's 2017 with the first full calendar year of the other systems. While the Switch's launch month was the sole month of Q1, the ~900k sales in the U.S. amounts to about a full quarter's worth of sales compared to later quarters. By doing this, you can align and compare the systems by their first full post-launch Q4, and get a better grasp of post-launch performances relative to each other. For LTD sales, the systems have to be aligned to a specific period, and this is a more accurate way of doing so than by aligning them to launch month.

It isn't more accurate though. You don't get LTD sales by omitting the launch quarter. What you did is a method to compare performance during calendar years, but it's not a LTD comparison anymore, because you are looking at different timeframes from launch by choosing quarters arbitrarily.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

 

Shadow1980 said:

Others have already mentioned the most glaring flaws of such comparisons: staggered regional launches and differences in what time of the year the system was released. Global sales never tell the whole story in and of themselves, and global LTD sales are an even less accurate comparison. This is not to say that the Switch is not doing very well, but that ZhugeEX's graph is misleading by insinuating that the Switch is doing better than it is, i.e. "better than PS2 numbers." If you take the PS2's shipment data for 2000+2001 in Japan and 2001+2002 in N. America and Europe, a different picture emerges. Adding those number up gives us a total of 42.96M units shipped. The Switch has shipped 32.3M combined for the 2017+2018 period. Looking at regional figures, it's easy to see how we end up with this corrected deficit. While the Switch has sold roughly on par with the PS2 in Japan, in the U.S. it has run a significant deficit (note that in these charts I count launch year for Q1 launches like the Switch as a full year as sales in Q1 amounted to about normal quarterly sales relative to other quarters):

Because of the lack in sales data for the PS2 in Europe, I have to use shipment data, while sales for the other systems I'll base on VGC data (which is usually nearly on the mark for annual and LTD figures after adjustments). There were 14.92M PS2s shipped in Europe during the 2001-2002 period, while according to VGC, the Wii sold about 13.5M in the 2007-2008 period, the 360 sold about 3.94M for the 2006-2007 period, the PS4 sold just over 13M in the 2014-2015 period, and the Switch has so far amassed 8.22M as of the week ending Dec. 29 (presumably the end of VGC's 2018 tracking period).

So, the Switch isn't even close to doing PS2 numbers globally, though it is close just in Japan. Against the PS4, the Switch is besting it by a huge margin in Japan, trailing it by a significant amount in Europe, and the two are about on par in the U.S. Against the Wii, the Switch is slightly ahead in Japan (and that margin will continue to grow as the Wii was very front-loaded in Japan), but trailing it by a significant amount in the U.S. & Europe. Against the 360, the Switch is obviously destroying it by an entire order of magnitude, and is handily outpacing it in Europe and the U.S.; however, it's worth pointing out that the 360 had a late and quite large peak in the U.S., selling over 14M units combined in the 2010-2011 period, and I somehow doubt that the Switch will be pulling those kind of numbers in the 2021-2022 period, that is unless it pulls off some miraculously anomalous DS-level growth. And to throw the 3DS on the pile, the Switch is outpacing it by a good bit in the U.S. & Europe but trailing it in Japan, likely due to its relatively high price point (not too bad for a home console, but expensive for a handheld).

Of course, what's happening now isn't what's going to happen in the coming years. No two sales curves are identical, and they're rarely even similar. If I had to guess, then based on what's typical for Nintendo systems I'd make the following lifetime estimates for the Switch:

U.S.: 35M
Europe: 30M
Japan: 20M (maybe 25M if it gets significant price reductions soon)
RoW: 5M

Total: 90M

Of course, it's still very early and the Switch could indeed see significant growth in the future, or it could peak this year. We don't really know yet. It just depends on what Nintendo has in the pipeline regarding major software releases (Pokemon Gen VIII will be the big one this year), price cuts, and, possibly, hardware revisions.

The usual great post, thanks for the info.

Could you please make the "rightly aligned all regions" graph comparing PS2, Wii, PS4 and Switch in it and if possible have dotted lines for the remaining time in the market you expect for PS4 and Switch?

And on agreement with Rol, make it launch day, doesn't cut anything, because long term those fluctuation won't impact much.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

 

The_Liquid_Laser said:

 

thismeintiel said:

That's not going to happen, though.  If the Switch was going to become the best selling console ever, it would be above PS2.  And not the way it is presented in the OP, but country launches aligned, which it is not.  It will either have to sell like the PS2 late in its life, which means incredible legs, or like the DS, which means a shit ton of sales for the next 3 years.  For the PS2 path, it would need to sell 100M+ by the time the Switch 2 arrives, and then 60M+ afterwards.  Looking at DS, it shipped 35M+ after being on the market for ~2 years + 1 month.  The Switch will probably match it.  However, after another year, it had shipped another 29M+ units.  Then, the following year it shipped another 31M+ units.  28M+ the next.  Switch isn't coming close to that.  Well, maybe if Nintendo drops the price to $199 when Pokemon hits.

And while Switch will still sell fine after the PS5 hits, it will definitely not be the hot new piece of kit anymore, and will most likely be on a natural downward slope soon after.  The PS5 and XB2 will also illustrate an even larger gap in performance compared to the home consoles and hybrid Switch.  This may or may not have an impact on the public perception of price vs value when it comes to the Switch.  My guess is not much, but it will probably push Nintendo to turn their focus to a coming (more powerful) Switch 2, which will undoubtedly lead to decline in Switch releases from them.

I'm predicting Switch will sell more like the DS.  There will a spike in sales this year, especially near the end.  But then sales will get higher in 2020 and stay high in 2021 (and good legs after that, like the DS).  It will be more like the DS or PS1, both of which seemed slow out of the gate in retrospect.  Sometimes a console does much better one or two years later than you might first expect based on it's launch.  Switch is going to be a console like that.

Switch is already doing well based on its first party games, but it's going to get a lot more third party games and that will be noticable this year.  Hardware sales will follow.

I don't think third party titles will push the switch as much when there is a more powerful third party system out there that is extremely popular and will be able to undercut it due to not having a tablet.  Maybe portability will make those more desirable but that's not as much of a draw for people who don't commute plus the mobile games market continues to turn into cell and tablet games.  Switch will continue to get big nintendo software but third parties won't give it the same spike as PS4



I am Iron Man

 

Robert_Downey_Jr. said:

 

The_Liquid_Laser said:

 

I'm predicting Switch will sell more like the DS.  There will a spike in sales this year, especially near the end.  But then sales will get higher in 2020 and stay high in 2021 (and good legs after that, like the DS).  It will be more like the DS or PS1, both of which seemed slow out of the gate in retrospect.  Sometimes a console does much better one or two years later than you might first expect based on it's launch.  Switch is going to be a console like that.

Switch is already doing well based on its first party games, but it's going to get a lot more third party games and that will be noticable this year.  Hardware sales will follow.

I don't think third party titles will push the switch as much when there is a more powerful third party system out there that is extremely popular and will be able to undercut it due to not having a tablet.  Maybe portability will make those more desirable but that's not as much of a draw for people who don't commute plus the mobile games market continues to turn into cell and tablet games.  Switch will continue to get big nintendo software but third parties won't give it the same spike as PS4

I think if the third party titles are exclusives (like with 3DS and DS before it and even Wii a bit), then you may be incorrect in your analysis. It will not be about power when there is only one place to play the game. Nobody cares about the power of Switch when they know the only place to play Shin Megami Tensi 5 is on Switch. Get enough games like that and the case you make will evaporate.



01000110 01101111 01110010 00100000 01001001 01111001 01101111 01101100 01100001 01101000 00100001 00100000 01000110 01101111 01110010 00100000 01000101 01110100 01100101 01110010 01101110 01101001 01110100 01111001 00100001 00100000

 

Miyamotoo said:

 

Great job and effort, I will just point that Switch is obviously not typical Nintendo system, its Nintendo integrated platform, and doenst mean only all Nintendo IPs on just one platform, but hole Nintendo support (in any case) just for one platform, thats very different to any previous Nintendo platform. Also, Nintendo said they planning that Switch has longer life span than usual 5-6 years and that's totally makes sense because its their only platform going forward.

By "typical" I was thinking more in the sense of a system that lasts the typical 5-6 years for a Nintendo system, and has weaker legs than PS & Xbox because of the system being largely abandoned once replaced. Nintendo may say they want it to last longer, but the generational cycle is dictated by sales and if Switch sales are already in the post-peak decline by 2021, then it simply won't have a longer than the old average lifetime like PS & Xbox do now.