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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Switch is selling better than PS4, PS2, PS1, PS3, X360 launch aligned

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Switch is doing well, but in a few years we will all look back and realize that these first two years were the "slow" years.  The real excitement is yet to come.

I wouldn't get too far ahead of yourself there.  That's the same kind of thinking that led people to believe Nintendo would hit 20M this FY and do 2.5M this past Dec in the US.  The Switch is successful, but its not the Wii in its prime.



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thismeintiel said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Switch is doing well, but in a few years we will all look back and realize that these first two years were the "slow" years.  The real excitement is yet to come.

I wouldn't get too far ahead of yourself there.  That's the same kind of thinking that led people to believe Nintendo would hit 20M this FY and do 2.5M this past Dec in the US.  The Switch is successful, but its not the Wii in its prime.

I've been predicting Switch would become the best selling console of all time for a while now.  People are underestimating how many third party games the Switch will have.  They are also overestimating the effect of Western AAA third parties compared to all of the other third party games.  Switch is going to have a massive third party library, but it will miss lots of the big names that get mentioned most often.  I am betting quantity will beat quality (or budget).

The number of third party games on Switch is going to increase dramatically this year.  When the flood of games comes, then the console sales will follow.  

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 31 January 2019

Oh wow! Good job Switch!



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
thismeintiel said:

I wouldn't get too far ahead of yourself there.  That's the same kind of thinking that led people to believe Nintendo would hit 20M this FY and do 2.5M this past Dec in the US.  The Switch is successful, but its not the Wii in its prime.

I've been predicting Switch would become the best selling console of all time for a while now.  People are underestimating how many third party games the Switch will have.  They are also overestimating the effect of Western AAA third parties compared to all of the other third party games.  Switch is going to have a massive third party library, but it will miss lots of the big names that get mentioned most often.  I am betting quantity will beat quality (or budget).

The number of third party games on Switch is going to increase dramatically this year.  When the flood of games comes, then the console sales will follow.  

That's not going to happen, though.  If the Switch was going to become the best selling console ever, it would be above PS2.  And not the way it is presented in the OP, but country launches aligned, which it is not.  It will either have to sell like the PS2 late in its life, which means incredible legs, or like the DS, which means a shit ton of sales for the next 3 years.  For the PS2 path, it would need to sell 100M+ by the time the Switch 2 arrives, and then 60M+ afterwards.  Looking at DS, it shipped 35M+ after being on the market for ~2 years + 1 month.  The Switch will probably match it.  However, after another year, it had shipped another 29M+ units.  Then, the following year it shipped another 31M+ units.  28M+ the next.  Switch isn't coming close to that.  Well, maybe if Nintendo drops the price to $199 when Pokemon hits.

And while Switch will still sell fine after the PS5 hits, it will definitely not be the hot new piece of kit anymore, and will most likely be on a natural downward slope soon after.  The PS5 and XB2 will also illustrate an even larger gap in performance compared to the home consoles and hybrid Switch.  This may or may not have an impact on the public perception of price vs value when it comes to the Switch.  My guess is not much, but it will probably push Nintendo to turn their focus to a coming (more powerful) Switch 2, which will undoubtedly lead to decline in Switch releases from them.

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 31 January 2019

 

thismeintiel said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I've been predicting Switch would become the best selling console of all time for a while now.  People are underestimating how many third party games the Switch will have.  They are also overestimating the effect of Western AAA third parties compared to all of the other third party games.  Switch is going to have a massive third party library, but it will miss lots of the big names that get mentioned most often.  I am betting quantity will beat quality (or budget).

The number of third party games on Switch is going to increase dramatically this year.  When the flood of games comes, then the console sales will follow.  

That's not going to happen, though.  If the Switch was going to become the best selling console ever, it would be above PS2.  And not the way it is presented in the OP, but country launches aligned, which it is not.  It will either have to sell like the PS2 late in its life, which means incredible legs, or like the DS, which means a shit ton of sales for the next 3 years.  For the PS2 path, it would need to sell 100M+ by the time the Switch 2 arrives, and then 60M+ afterwards.  Looking at DS, it shipped 35M+ after being on the market for ~2 years + 1 month.  The Switch will probably match it.  However, after another year, it had shipped another 29M+ units.  Then, the following year it shipped another 31M+ units.  28M+ the next.  Switch isn't coming close to that.  Well, maybe if Nintendo drops the price to $199 when Pokemon hits.

And while Switch will still sell fine after the PS5 hits, it will definitely not be the hot new piece of kit anymore, and will most likely be on a natural downward slope soon after.  The PS5 and XB2 will also illustrate an even larger gap in performance compared to the home consoles and hybrid Switch.  This may or may not have an impact on the public perception of price vs value when it comes to the Switch.  My guess is not much, but it will probably push Nintendo to turn their focus to a coming (more powerful) Switch 2, which will undoubtedly lead to decline in Switch releases from them.

I'm predicting Switch will sell more like the DS.  There will a spike in sales this year, especially near the end.  But then sales will get higher in 2020 and stay high in 2021 (and good legs after that, like the DS).  It will be more like the DS or PS1, both of which seemed slow out of the gate in retrospect.  Sometimes a console does much better one or two years later than you might first expect based on it's launch.  Switch is going to be a console like that.

Switch is already doing well based on its first party games, but it's going to get a lot more third party games and that will be noticable this year.  Hardware sales will follow.



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Shadow1980 said:

Others have already mentioned the most glaring flaws of such comparisons: staggered regional launches and differences in what time of the year the system was released. Global sales never tell the whole story in and of themselves, and global LTD sales are an even less accurate comparison. This is not to say that the Switch is not doing very well, but that ZhugeEX's graph is misleading by insinuating that the Switch is doing better than it is, i.e. "better than PS2 numbers." If you take the PS2's shipment data for 2000+2001 in Japan and 2001+2002 in N. America and Europe, a different picture emerges. Adding those number up gives us a total of 42.96M units shipped. The Switch has shipped 32.3M combined for the 2017+2018 period. Looking at regional figures, it's easy to see how we end up with this corrected deficit. While the Switch has sold roughly on par with the PS2 in Japan, in the U.S. it has run a significant deficit (note that in these charts I count launch year for Q1 launches like the Switch as a full year as sales in Q1 amounted to about normal quarterly sales relative to other quarters):

Because of the lack in sales data for the PS2 in Europe, I have to use shipment data, while sales for the other systems I'll base on VGC data (which is usually nearly on the mark for annual and LTD figures after adjustments). There were 14.92M PS2s shipped in Europe during the 2001-2002 period, while according to VGC, the Wii sold about 13.5M in the 2007-2008 period, the 360 sold about 3.94M for the 2006-2007 period, the PS4 sold just over 13M in the 2014-2015 period, and the Switch has so far amassed 8.22M as of the week ending Dec. 29 (presumably the end of VGC's 2018 tracking period).

So, the Switch isn't even close to doing PS2 numbers globally, though it is close just in Japan. Against the PS4, the Switch is besting it by a huge margin in Japan, trailing it by a significant amount in Europe, and the two are about on par in the U.S. Against the Wii, the Switch is slightly ahead in Japan (and that margin will continue to grow as the Wii was very front-loaded in Japan), but trailing it by a significant amount in the U.S. & Europe. Against the 360, the Switch is obviously destroying it by an entire order of magnitude, and is handily outpacing it in Europe and the U.S.; however, it's worth pointing out that the 360 had a late and quite large peak in the U.S., selling over 14M units combined in the 2010-2011 period, and I somehow doubt that the Switch will be pulling those kind of numbers in the 2021-2022 period, that is unless it pulls off some miraculously anomalous DS-level growth. And to throw the 3DS on the pile, the Switch is outpacing it by a good bit in the U.S. & Europe but trailing it in Japan, likely due to its relatively high price point (not too bad for a home console, but expensive for a handheld).

Of course, what's happening now isn't what's going to happen in the coming years. No two sales curves are identical, and they're rarely even similar. If I had to guess, then based on what's typical for Nintendo systems I'd make the following lifetime estimates for the Switch:

U.S.: 35M
Europe: 30M
Japan: 20M (maybe 25M if it gets significant price reductions soon)
RoW: 5M

Total: 90M

Of course, it's still very early and the Switch could indeed see significant growth in the future, or it could peak this year. We don't really know yet. It just depends on what Nintendo has in the pipeline regarding major software releases (Pokemon Gen VIII will be the big one this year), price cuts, and, possibly, hardware revisions.

Great job and effort, I will just point that Switch is obviously not typical Nintendo system, its Nintendo integrated platform, and doenst mean only all Nintendo IPs on just one platform, but hole Nintendo support (in any case) just for one platform, thats very different to any previous Nintendo platform. Also, Nintendo said they planning that Switch has longer life span than usual 5-6 years and that's totally makes sense because its their only platform going forward.



 

Shadow1980 said:

Others have already mentioned the most glaring flaws of such comparisons: staggered regional launches and differences in what time of the year the system was released. Global sales never tell the whole story in and of themselves, and global LTD sales are an even less accurate comparison. This is not to say that the Switch is not doing very well, but that ZhugeEX's graph is misleading by insinuating that the Switch is doing better than it is, i.e. "better than PS2 numbers." If you take the PS2's shipment data for 2000+2001 in Japan and 2001+2002 in N. America and Europe, a different picture emerges. Adding those number up gives us a total of 42.96M units shipped. The Switch has shipped 32.3M combined for the 2017+2018 period. Looking at regional figures, it's easy to see how we end up with this corrected deficit. While the Switch has sold roughly on par with the PS2 in Japan, in the U.S. it has run a significant deficit (note that in these charts I count launch year for Q1 launches like the Switch as a full year as sales in Q1 amounted to about normal quarterly sales relative to other quarters):

Because of the lack in sales data for the PS2 in Europe, I have to use shipment data, while sales for the other systems I'll base on VGC data (which is usually nearly on the mark for annual and LTD figures after adjustments). There were 14.92M PS2s shipped in Europe during the 2001-2002 period, while according to VGC, the Wii sold about 13.5M in the 2007-2008 period, the 360 sold about 3.94M for the 2006-2007 period, the PS4 sold just over 13M in the 2014-2015 period, and the Switch has so far amassed 8.22M as of the week ending Dec. 29 (presumably the end of VGC's 2018 tracking period).

So, the Switch isn't even close to doing PS2 numbers globally, though it is close just in Japan. Against the PS4, the Switch is besting it by a huge margin in Japan, trailing it by a significant amount in Europe, and the two are about on par in the U.S. Against the Wii, the Switch is slightly ahead in Japan (and that margin will continue to grow as the Wii was very front-loaded in Japan), but trailing it by a significant amount in the U.S. & Europe. Against the 360, the Switch is obviously destroying it by an entire order of magnitude, and is handily outpacing it in Europe and the U.S.; however, it's worth pointing out that the 360 had a late and quite large peak in the U.S., selling over 14M units combined in the 2010-2011 period, and I somehow doubt that the Switch will be pulling those kind of numbers in the 2021-2022 period, that is unless it pulls off some miraculously anomalous DS-level growth. And to throw the 3DS on the pile, the Switch is outpacing it by a good bit in the U.S. & Europe but trailing it in Japan, likely due to its relatively high price point (not too bad for a home console, but expensive for a handheld).

Of course, what's happening now isn't what's going to happen in the coming years. No two sales curves are identical, and they're rarely even similar. If I had to guess, then based on what's typical for Nintendo systems I'd make the following lifetime estimates for the Switch:

U.S.: 35M
Europe: 30M
Japan: 20M (maybe 25M if it gets significant price reductions soon)
RoW: 5M

Total: 90M

Of course, it's still very early and the Switch could indeed see significant growth in the future, or it could peak this year. We don't really know yet. It just depends on what Nintendo has in the pipeline regarding major software releases (Pokemon Gen VIII will be the big one this year), price cuts, and, possibly, hardware revisions.

The usual great post, thanks for the info.

Could you please make the "rightly aligned all regions" graph comparing PS2, Wii, PS4 and Switch in it and if possible have dotted lines for the remaining time in the market you expect for PS4 and Switch?

And on agreement with Rol, make it launch day, doesn't cut anything, because long term those fluctuation won't impact much.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:

 

thismeintiel said:

That's not going to happen, though.  If the Switch was going to become the best selling console ever, it would be above PS2.  And not the way it is presented in the OP, but country launches aligned, which it is not.  It will either have to sell like the PS2 late in its life, which means incredible legs, or like the DS, which means a shit ton of sales for the next 3 years.  For the PS2 path, it would need to sell 100M+ by the time the Switch 2 arrives, and then 60M+ afterwards.  Looking at DS, it shipped 35M+ after being on the market for ~2 years + 1 month.  The Switch will probably match it.  However, after another year, it had shipped another 29M+ units.  Then, the following year it shipped another 31M+ units.  28M+ the next.  Switch isn't coming close to that.  Well, maybe if Nintendo drops the price to $199 when Pokemon hits.

And while Switch will still sell fine after the PS5 hits, it will definitely not be the hot new piece of kit anymore, and will most likely be on a natural downward slope soon after.  The PS5 and XB2 will also illustrate an even larger gap in performance compared to the home consoles and hybrid Switch.  This may or may not have an impact on the public perception of price vs value when it comes to the Switch.  My guess is not much, but it will probably push Nintendo to turn their focus to a coming (more powerful) Switch 2, which will undoubtedly lead to decline in Switch releases from them.

I'm predicting Switch will sell more like the DS.  There will a spike in sales this year, especially near the end.  But then sales will get higher in 2020 and stay high in 2021 (and good legs after that, like the DS).  It will be more like the DS or PS1, both of which seemed slow out of the gate in retrospect.  Sometimes a console does much better one or two years later than you might first expect based on it's launch.  Switch is going to be a console like that.

Switch is already doing well based on its first party games, but it's going to get a lot more third party games and that will be noticable this year.  Hardware sales will follow.

I don't think third party titles will push the switch as much when there is a more powerful third party system out there that is extremely popular and will be able to undercut it due to not having a tablet.  Maybe portability will make those more desirable but that's not as much of a draw for people who don't commute plus the mobile games market continues to turn into cell and tablet games.  Switch will continue to get big nintendo software but third parties won't give it the same spike as PS4



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Robert_Downey_Jr. said:

 

The_Liquid_Laser said:

 

I'm predicting Switch will sell more like the DS.  There will a spike in sales this year, especially near the end.  But then sales will get higher in 2020 and stay high in 2021 (and good legs after that, like the DS).  It will be more like the DS or PS1, both of which seemed slow out of the gate in retrospect.  Sometimes a console does much better one or two years later than you might first expect based on it's launch.  Switch is going to be a console like that.

Switch is already doing well based on its first party games, but it's going to get a lot more third party games and that will be noticable this year.  Hardware sales will follow.

I don't think third party titles will push the switch as much when there is a more powerful third party system out there that is extremely popular and will be able to undercut it due to not having a tablet.  Maybe portability will make those more desirable but that's not as much of a draw for people who don't commute plus the mobile games market continues to turn into cell and tablet games.  Switch will continue to get big nintendo software but third parties won't give it the same spike as PS4

I think if the third party titles are exclusives (like with 3DS and DS before it and even Wii a bit), then you may be incorrect in your analysis. It will not be about power when there is only one place to play the game. Nobody cares about the power of Switch when they know the only place to play Shin Megami Tensi 5 is on Switch. Get enough games like that and the case you make will evaporate.



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Nintendo needs to get a new direct out already. So far Q4 is a dropped ball. At least Late March/April looks good.