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Nintendo FY Q3 Results (Switch 32.3m LT, Smash Bros 12m, Pokemon 10m..)

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo FY Q3 Results (Switch 32.3m LT, Smash Bros 12m, Pokemon 10m..)

Marth said:
Attach rates
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 46.5%
Super Mario Odyssey: 42.6%
Smash Bros Ultimate: 37.4%
Breath of the Wild: 36.2%
Pokemon LetsGo: 31%
Splatoon 2: 25.6%
Super Mario Party: 16.4%
1-2-Switch: 8.9%

Wowza. I almost feel special for not owning Mario Kart, Smash Bros. or Pokémon.



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Looks like there won't be crow served to all those who said 20m wouldn't happen! A lot of people have been spared. 17m is quite a drop. I agree with those saying they were expecting labo to be huge but that never happened.



Great numbers, but now it's time for everyone that said who expected less than 20M (or god forbid lower than 18M) to be trolls and haters to apologize right?

Now it looks like the probability of 25M on 2019 is very thin.

And seems like the predictions people made of PS4 forecasted 16M becoming 18M actual and Switch 20M becoming 17M actual with both selling quite close on the year was quite spot one, who could guess? I now who, people who kept sales curve in mind and made conservative predictions.

With 3DS SW sales dropping YOY it is very indicative of the end of its life as a platform in the couple next years, let's keep looking if it will get a successor or Switch will be the sole platform.

Will we also see people that said Labo would explode in Holidays (more than 6 months after a lukewarm release) admit they were wrong? It was a blue ocean product, nothing like it was in the market as far as I'm aware, but it wasn't an EVERGREEN, it sold like normal stuff, most on the first week and month, then declining as normally happens to SW.

Last edited by DonFerrari - on 31 January 2019

duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Kerotan said:
Looks like there won't be crow served to all those who said 20m wouldn't happen! A lot of people have been spared. 17m is quite a drop. I agree with those saying they were expecting labo to be huge but that never happened.

Despite lower forcast for 3m, 17m is great result in any case, like you can see in graph.

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1090894240559915008/photo/1

 

Also, you want comment incredible software sales, for instance 12m in one month for Smash Bros, or going from 100m to 110m forecast? :)



Miyamotoo said:
Asriel said:
Pokemon, Super Mario Party and Smash did extremely well and the quarterly numbers for Switch were good.

It's obvious Labo has been a flop and not driven hardware sales in anyway whatsoever. It was clear Nintendo anticipated Labo helping drive Switch up to 20 million units. The revision down to 17 million now seems too conservative - if sales remain flat versus last year, shipments would come in at ~17.4 million. I'm still expecting a quarter in the 3 to 3.5 million range, so 17 to 17.9 million for the financial year, which keeps Switch tracking similarly to PS4, launch-aligned.

The lesson to Nintendo should be to pace their releases consistently. Here's hoping Luigi's Mansion 3, Animal Crossing and Pokemon generation 8 are paced out, with the smaller titles (Fire Emblem, Daemon X Machina, Marvel Ultimate Alliance etc) coming at a regular clip, too. A Direct in the next couple of weeks seems likely, given the leaks of third party ports this week (AC 3, Darksiders).

Agree, Q1 and Q3 were slower than expected for Nintendo, and most likely they expecting that Labo will move much more units.

Remember when you said that you didn't care if LABO didn't have a long life and that Nintendo would be happy if it only sold a few million? ;)

 

On topic:

The drop by 3 million is bigger than i was expecting, if comments here were taken into consideration.
It sucks, but personally, not relevant. Switch is doing more than well.

Pokémon was a real surprise, for me, at least.
I had doubts it could perform that well. Glad i wasn't proven right, like with LABO.

Overall, the oulook for 2019 seems to be better than the one for 2018, which is great.



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Lower than expected hardware shipments for the quarter. The reduction of the forecast to 17m instead of 17.5m means that Nintendo wants to be sure to meet the new goal as shipping 2.5m units in the final quarter is much less of a challenge than 3m.

The PS4 shipped 17.7m units in its second full fiscal year when it had a $50 price cut, so in the big picture Switch sales are still great as they are among the most successful consoles in history, but the result gets dampened by Nintendo's high initial forecast. Furthermore, the hardware forecast is the only one that Nintendo fell short on and after the underwhelming fiscal Q1 it was clear that something would have to give. Nintendo's choice was hardware units, so they are prioritizing a long lifecycle for Switch.

New software releases did slightly better than I expected, but evergreens did worse. Not surprising, because sales of evergreens tie in with hardware sales and those came in below my expectation of 10-10.5m for the quarter.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

PwerlvlAmy said:
Pokemon Lets Go 10m? geez, so much for it ''flopping''. If a spin off that ''nobody likes'' can pull in 10m. What is the true traditional Gen 8 going to do as far as numbers go? gonna be insane if Gamefreak doesnt mess it up xD

Game Freak will mess it up, and the numbers will be insane. Pokémon fans don't really care.

Smash, though... damn.



RolStoppable said:
Lower than expected hardware shipments for the quarter. The reduction of the forecast to 17m instead of 17.5m means that Nintendo wants to be sure to meet the new goal as shipping 2.5m units in the final quarter is much less of a challenge than 3m.

The PS4 shipped 17.7m units in its second full fiscal year when it had a $50 price cut, so in the big picture Switch sales are still great as they are among the most successful consoles in history, but the result gets dampened by Nintendo's high initial forecast. Furthermore, the hardware forecast is the only one that Nintendo fell short on and after the underwhelming fiscal Q1 it was clear that something would have to give. Nintendo's choice was hardware units, so they are prioritizing a long lifecycle for Switch.

New software releases did slightly better than I expected, but evergreens did worse. Not surprising, because sales of evergreens tie in with hardware sales and those came in below my expectation of 10-10.5m for the quarter.

Pretty much in line with my own predictions - as can be seen in the other threads, I over-estimated the evergreen titles and hardware sales and under-estimated Super Mario Party, Pokemon and Smash.

Do you see a price-cut or hardware revision coming in the next financial year?  Looking at sales in Japan, which Nintendo attach a lot of importance to, I'm wondering if they'll want to move on price in order to achieve stronger sales. While Switch is tracking ahead of any home system in Japan since PS2, it's behind the curve set by DS and 3DS. I'm thinking if a hardware revision does come, it won't be anything major - and might just be a new standard model. Personally I think any major hardware revision could wait until 2020, if they're willing to move on price this year and definitely get both Animal Crossing and Pokemon out globally in good time.



Asriel said:

Pretty much in line with my own predictions - as can be seen in the other threads, I over-estimated the evergreen titles and hardware sales and under-estimated Super Mario Party, Pokemon and Smash.

Do you see a price-cut or hardware revision coming in the next financial year?  Looking at sales in Japan, which Nintendo attach a lot of importance to, I'm wondering if they'll want to move on price in order to achieve stronger sales. While Switch is tracking ahead of any home system in Japan since PS2, it's behind the curve set by DS and 3DS. I'm thinking if a hardware revision does come, it won't be anything major - and might just be a new standard model. Personally I think any major hardware revision could wait until 2020, if they're willing to move on price this year and definitely get both Animal Crossing and Pokemon out globally in good time.

I think everyone expects a price cut and/or revision in the next fiscal year. The only console that didn't see a price reduction in its first 24 months on the market was the Wii, so Switch is due for a change to its pricing.

For the hardware revision I expect smaller size and better battery life to improve portable functionality of the console. Nintendo will want to move closer to the goal of making Switch a one-per-person device. It's possible that the revision will become the new standard while the original SKU gets phased out, like it happened with DS Lite and DS. Although smaller size means smaller screen as well, so going forward it's more likely to be a relationship like 3DS and 3DS XL released in reverse order.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Miyamotoo said: 

-This year: 14.49 million

Is this the sales for calendar 2018 worldwide?