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Which Top-Selling New Release of 2018 Most Exceeded Retail Sales Expectations?

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Which Top-Selling New Release of 2018 Most Exceeded Retail Sales Expectations?

Red Dead Redemption II 125 7.60%
 
Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII 28 1.70%
 
FIFA 19 6 0.36%
 
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 468 28.47%
 
Spider-Man 321 19.53%
 
Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu & Eevee 75 4.56%
 
God of War 184 11.19%
 
Far Cry 5 18 1.09%
 
Monster Hunter: World 268 16.30%
 
Super Mario Party 151 9.18%
 
Total:1,644
Darashiva said:
Not sure how Smash Ultimate's sales are supposed to be surprising or exceeding expectations? Even the Wii U version sold over 5 million copies on a 13 million install base, so 9 million on a 30 million consoles shouldn't be that unexpected really, especially for what has been one of Nintendo's biggest franchises for almost two decades now. Isn't this more par for the course if anything? I would have been more surprised if it didn't sell like this.

As for what I asnwered, I never thought that Monster Hunter would become such a big hit in the west, even with the more user friendly experience. I just felt that it was always going to be more of a niche series. I'm very happy it has done so well.

People are surprised not because of that big number but the timeframe of that number. 

25 days of sales = 9-10m(Physical+Digital)

Smash Ultimate is already outpacing the previous entries and about to overtake the best selling version in just a month. 



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LGBTDBZBBQ said:
Darashiva said:
Not sure how Smash Ultimate's sales are supposed to be surprising or exceeding expectations? Even the Wii U version sold over 5 million copies on a 13 million install base, so 9 million on a 30 million consoles shouldn't be that unexpected really, especially for what has been one of Nintendo's biggest franchises for almost two decades now. Isn't this more par for the course if anything? I would have been more surprised if it didn't sell like this.

As for what I asnwered, I never thought that Monster Hunter would become such a big hit in the west, even with the more user friendly experience. I just felt that it was always going to be more of a niche series. I'm very happy it has done so well.

People are surprised not because of that big number but the timeframe of that number. 

25 days of sales = 9-10m(Physical+Digital)

Smash Ultimate is already outpacing the previous entries and about to overtake the best selling version in just a month. 

It's still nowhere near a genuine surprise as far as I'm concerned. Smash was always going to sell well, so it selling well, but faster is still completely within reason.



Darashiva said:
LGBTDBZBBQ said:

People are surprised not because of that big number but the timeframe of that number. 

25 days of sales = 9-10m(Physical+Digital)

Smash Ultimate is already outpacing the previous entries and about to overtake the best selling version in just a month. 

It's still nowhere near a genuine surprise as far as I'm concerned. Smash was always going to sell well, so it selling well, but faster is still completely within reason.

So it's going to surpass the best selling version (Brawl 13m) in 100m userbase with ease = within expectations while high budget MHW outperforming 3ds MH4+G(8.3m) is a surprise to you despite releasing on XB1+PS4+PC with over 200m userbase. 



LGBTDBZBBQ said:
Darashiva said:

It's still nowhere near a genuine surprise as far as I'm concerned. Smash was always going to sell well, so it selling well, but faster is still completely within reason.

So it's going to surpass the best selling version (Brawl 13m) in 100m userbase with ease = within expectations while high budget MHW outperforming 3ds MH4+G(8.3m) is a surprise to you despite releasing on XB1+PS4+PC with over 200m userbase. 

Yes. Smash has been a huge series for a long time, so it increasing in sales over its predecessors is perfectly reasonable, especially on a system that is as hot as the Switch is right now. MH World on the other hand comes from a series that has never been big in the west before, and I expected it to outperform earlier titles thanks to the more beginner friendly approach and higher-end graphics than the series had seen before, this was far beyond anything I thought it would sell.

The difference is in the context. Comparing the two directly in regards to playerbase, platforms, and sales is kinda pointless since they come from two completely different places.



Darashiva said:
LGBTDBZBBQ said:

People are surprised not because of that big number but the timeframe of that number. 

25 days of sales = 9-10m(Physical+Digital)

Smash Ultimate is already outpacing the previous entries and about to overtake the best selling version in just a month. 

It's still nowhere near a genuine surprise as far as I'm concerned. Smash was always going to sell well, so it selling well, but faster is still completely within reason.

Probably part of the surprise is that Smash Bros. Ultimate is not only selling well, but allowed the Switch to move so much hardware that it broke records. Sure, Smash is a system seller, but I don't believe at this level. 1.77 million Switch units were sold in the U.S. during the month of December, the highest amount of units in a month sold in this generation, especially considering that the Switch did really well in November and that the PS4 has dominated this generation but has not been able to post even these kinds of numbers during the holidays.



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Kai_Mao said:
Darashiva said:

It's still nowhere near a genuine surprise as far as I'm concerned. Smash was always going to sell well, so it selling well, but faster is still completely within reason.

Probably part of the surprise is that Smash Bros. Ultimate is not only selling well, but allowed the Switch to move so much hardware that it broke records. Sure, Smash is a system seller, but I don't believe at this level. 1.77 million Switch units were sold in the U.S. during the month of December, the highest amount of units in a month sold in this generation, especially considering that the Switch did really well in November and that the PS4 has dominated this generation but has not been able to post even these kinds of numbers during the holidays.

True but taking in to account that(if I am not mistaken) December is always the biggest sales month for Nintendo. Added with the hottest new gaming until being the Switch and the biggest Nintendo release in history the sales add up pretty well for December. Has Sony ever REALLY been "big" in Dec like Nintendo? I am genuinely asking because I don't know for sure. But from my memory I don't ever remember it being.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

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LGBTDBZBBQ said:
DonFerrari said:

SW shipment is usually quite close to selling, they don't need 2 months worth or regular sale on inventory. There is a reason pre-orders and day ones are used so much to help do right shipment.

And when you look most games the bulk of the sales come on first week and first month.

 

Holiday shipments is another story here. SMO sold-through number+Digital were~7m while the shipments were 9.07m and SSBU with the highest number of preorder usually equate to a large shipments size especially in a holiday month to prevent a stock situation from disrupting Smash momentum.  Japan 250k Smash ultimate number on the 1st week of sales was another proof of a big shipment from Nintendo. 

Yes, I agree.

Still someone predicting 15M shipping (not really saying 12M sold or anything the like) and it selling 15M shouldn't qualify as the most exceeding sales expectation right? When MHW where past 10M when several expected like 1M, 3M at most.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

TheBlackNaruto said:
Kai_Mao said:

Probably part of the surprise is that Smash Bros. Ultimate is not only selling well, but allowed the Switch to move so much hardware that it broke records. Sure, Smash is a system seller, but I don't believe at this level. 1.77 million Switch units were sold in the U.S. during the month of December, the highest amount of units in a month sold in this generation, especially considering that the Switch did really well in November and that the PS4 has dominated this generation but has not been able to post even these kinds of numbers during the holidays.

True but taking in to account that(if I am not mistaken) December is always the biggest sales month for Nintendo. Added with the hottest new gaming until being the Switch and the biggest Nintendo release in history the sales add up pretty well for December. Has Sony ever REALLY been "big" in Dec like Nintendo? I am genuinely asking because I don't know for sure. But from my memory I don't ever remember it being.

Sony and MS where a little bigger in Dec in the past, but with BF many sales migrated to Nov.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

DonFerrari said:
LGBTDBZBBQ said:

 

Holiday shipments is another story here. SMO sold-through number+Digital were~7m while the shipments were 9.07m and SSBU with the highest number of preorder usually equate to a large shipments size especially in a holiday month to prevent a stock situation from disrupting Smash momentum.  Japan 250k Smash ultimate number on the 1st week of sales was another proof of a big shipment from Nintendo. 

Yes, I agree.

Still someone predicting 15M shipping (not really saying 12M sold or anything the like) and it selling 15M shouldn't qualify as the most exceeding sales expectation right? When MHW where past 10M when several expected like 1M, 3M at most.

Only one person who made that bold prediction while the others weren't.

About MHW situation, the signs were there when the E3 trailer is the most watched trailer for Capcom game and the stage presence at E3 was the biggest for the company. Combined with a multiplayer aspect of MHW there wasn't a single doubt about MH was about to explode in the western market especially with capcom largest marketing push ever recorded. The only skepticism was in the Japanese market where it was ditching the portable for a stationary console, and they managed to sell it really well then from there MHW was going to break Capcom sales record for the WW market. 

The ones who keep downplaying the sales were fanboys who couldn't accept Capcom decision to change from portable console to stationary consoles and also with the underperforming titles like SFV, RE7, and MVC didn't help with the perception of Capcom strategy. 



TheBlackNaruto said:
Kai_Mao said:

Probably part of the surprise is that Smash Bros. Ultimate is not only selling well, but allowed the Switch to move so much hardware that it broke records. Sure, Smash is a system seller, but I don't believe at this level. 1.77 million Switch units were sold in the U.S. during the month of December, the highest amount of units in a month sold in this generation, especially considering that the Switch did really well in November and that the PS4 has dominated this generation but has not been able to post even these kinds of numbers during the holidays.

True but taking in to account that(if I am not mistaken) December is always the biggest sales month for Nintendo. Added with the hottest new gaming until being the Switch and the biggest Nintendo release in history the sales add up pretty well for December. Has Sony ever REALLY been "big" in Dec like Nintendo? I am genuinely asking because I don't know for sure. But from my memory I don't ever remember it being.

I think people still had doubts about the Switch coming into December, especially when they had the lofty goal of wanting 20 million units shipped by the end of the fiscal year. Despite Smash Ultimate being the biggest Nintendo release of the year (maybe ever), there were still doubts that it could do the kind of numbers we saw, especially when people believed Nintendo lost some momentum throughout the year because of their relatively quiet first half of 2018.

As for Sony and Microsoft, yea I think they've aimed towards getting more sales in November and utilizing Black Friday. But still, with Sony selling the way it is, you'd think it would have sold more than 1.77 million units in a month, especially during its peak years.