This is a toughie, but it comes down to MHW, Spider-Man and Smash. In the end I have to give it to Spider-Man though. I didn't have many expectations one way or the other about MHW. And with Smash it is too early to tell how well it will do. Most Smash games tend to be front loaded. Is this one front loaded too? Too early to tell.
I remember last year there was a thread asking, "which would sell better: God of War or Spider-Man?" Most people said God of War. I also remember I was on the high end of most prediction threads about Spider-Man and it still exceeded my expectations. It is selling far, far better than Spider-Man 2 on PS2 which is the only other Spider-Man game of comparable quality.
So, yeah, Spider-Man ftw!