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Forums - Sales Discussion - PlayStation Was The Top Selling Home Console In The World For The 8th Year In A Row!

KingofTrolls on 27 January 2019
Trumpstyle said:

Someone else might find the figure but I'm sure that both 3DS and Wii peaked in their second year, so I'm just assuming it will happen again.

It depends what do u understand by second year, because Wii launch Novemebr and Decemeber, so kinda hard to call it first year.

Imo this year will be Switch peak year, but with mid gen upgrade and price cut it will have healthy and close to peak 4th,maybe 5th year like PS4.



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Intrinsic on 27 January 2019
zorg1000 said:

I dont know much about this stuff but what would a console like you're proposing cost? And how big of a jump would it be over PS4 Pro/XB1X?

That depends.

Lets take the PS4 back in 2013 for instance

 

  • APU $120 (28nm 348mm2)
  • RAM $62 (16 x 4Gb modules in clamshell/ currently using 8 x 8Gb modules) 
  • HDD $23
  • BRD $25
Thats $230 for what I would consider the essential components. Other stuff are thins like cooling, PSU, controller, assembly.....etc. But this should give you an idea of what they are willing to spend in each field.
Now for the PS5 and without going into to much details it would be something like this
  • APU $120-$150 (7nm chip 350mm2 - 370mm2)
  • RAM $70 - $90 (8 - 12 x 16Gb modules GDDR6)
  • HDD/SSD $25 2TB HDD / $45 1TB SSD
  • BRD $25 
That will put us in the $240 - $310 bracket.
If going with a $240 setup then they will retail for $399. A $310 setup will probably end up being a $500 console when all other components are added.
At $399 you end up with a
  • CPU that is about 6 times better than whats in the PS4/XB1 and 4 times better than whats in the PS4pro/XB1X
  • GPU of around 10TF which is like 6 times better than whats in the base PS4 and about 2.5 times better than whats in the Pro
  • 16 GB of RAM 
For a $499 system the CPU will be the same and the GPU and RAM will go up a bit.

 

 

Trumpstyle said: 

I'm glad you finding so much wrong with my post but let me explain. About the GPU.

First a 40CU (xbox one X SOC) clocked at 1800mhz on 7nm transistors will probably pull about 200w we need to get that number down to 100-120W. Looking at Vega for both 14nm/7nm, the chinese console and amds own apu with just 11CU at 210mm2 die I just can't get the math to support a gpu that has more than 9TF. Just looking at Vega VII with 338mm2 die at 7nm having just 60CU we can conclude it's very unlikely we will see more than 60CU on PS5. And based on towshardware vega 56 review on how much power this card pull at varies clock-speed my conclusion is that PS5 will have about 56CU clocked at 1200-1300 MHZ. Which is actually pretty close to what you wrote.

RAM and Storage:

There's two reason I believe we will see 12 GB ram and not the common-sense prediction of 16 or 24 GB of ram. The first is prices of GDDR6 seems a good amount higher than Gddr5 and second there won't be any need for more Ram anyways because PS5 will use AMDs High-bandwidth cache controller (HBCC) which will make the ram usage much more efficient.

Because of HBCC next-gen consoles will go 1TB NVME ssd drives which is needed to use HBCC, now I seen some people thinking the price to high, but right now looking at Newegg 1TB NVMe cost between 155-180$ (I'm assuming Sony buys this stuff half the price at retail) and those are high quality NVMe SSDs (intel 660p, HP EX920 and Corsair Force MP300). Prices also predicted to drop between 20-50% this year and will likely drop a good amount during next-gen because of very high competition making 1TB NVMe ssd drive an excellent choice.

Your entire GPU argument falls through because you are basing everything off Vega architecture. Vega like Polaris are all based on the GCN architecture. Which are well known for being very inefficient chips (using more power t arrive at similar frequencies to their direct rival). Navi which is to be in the PS5/XBn has not based on GCN. Or even if it is its at the very least based on a different microArch. So basically using Vega or polaris thermals and power draw r even worse architecture limitations to measure what will be in the next gen hardware is a mistake. Only thing we know is that they are built using a 7nm process.

As fr your storage thing...... You d realize that an Nvme drive cost about 120% more than a standard SATA SSD drive right?

e.g Right now on amazon 1TB M.2 Sata SSD cost $135 meanwhile a 1TB M.2 NVme cost $330.

Its possible that sony and ms can et 1TB Sata SSDs for around $45 - $55 in 2020. It however is impossible that they will et NVME SSDs for that price in 2020. 

No NVMe SSDs? No HBCC. And thats not even how HBCC works Its not about using storage as RAM for the GPU its about using slower RAM as RAM for the GPU. Then again there is another way all this can be solved but hat is not what you are talking about.

Last edited by Intrinsic - on 28 January 2019

The_Liquid_Laser on 27 January 2019
ArchangelMadzz said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Already corrected a few posts laster

Oh I see I didn't go through the thread.

But yes reading the article they said it would take a long time to recoup the cost of RND into the PS3. As well as the money lost for each sale as they are sold at a loss. But this was 2008. The PS3 slim and super slim came in. They sold millions and milllions of software especially 2009 and onwards and by the time the PS3 came 5 years after that article I'm sure they ended up making money and it was a successful product. They sold almost 87 million of the things.

Nope.  It lost them tons of money until the PS4 came out.  


Keep in mind that the PSP was (mostly) making them money during these same years.  But the PS3 was just this giant money toilet which flushed away all of their profits.

thismeintiel said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Thanks.  This is useful.   It gives at least something.

I am not sure if there is enough there to determine what the launch price of the PS5 will be though, which is a much more important detail.  Will it be $399 or $499?  I could see them going either way.  Also, I am still waiting to see if they keep it a vanilla console or bundle in something like a VR headset.  That could drive up the price even more.  And knowing what games it will have during the first year is also very important.  These things I've said in this paragraph are even more important than knowing the system specs.  That will actually give an idea of how well the console will do.

That is why I say, it is too early to predict a PS5 victory in say, 2021.  It is also too early to say whether or not it will even sell better than the next XBox.  We still know very little about the most relevant details for either console.

I don't see them doing a $499 box.  They did it with PS3 and it didn't work out, not until the PS3 dropped to $399, and even more so at $299.  MS did it this gen, and they are going to end up being out sold by more than 2:1.  While $499 is a little more acceptable now, and will probably be acceptable in a few more years, I just don't think it sells right now.  Sony will also be subsidizing the console, like they always do.  So, it may cost $449-$499 to make, but Sony would still sell it for $399. 

And trust me, they aren't going to force VR on people.  MS tried it with Kinect and it doesn't work.  Plus, Kinect was "only" a $100 mark up, while VR would be something more like a $200-$300 mark up.  Not going to happen.  Also, considering Sony has never lost WW to Xbox, I highly doubt the PS5 will, either.  It just has too much going for it, including B/C with PS4.  Which seems even more interesting, since apparently Sony, according to one of their patents, is going to be pushing remaster packs (with higher res textures, maybe even higher geometry for models) for PS4 games on PS5.  That could be a big selling point for the 100M+ people who own a PS4, especially if its only $10-$20 for the pack instead of paying $60 for a remastered game.

Everything you are saying is a smart strategy.  I would like to get an official announcement from them though.  

I don't put it past any of the big 3 to do something dumb.  I don't really think their companies are dumb so much is that they are vulnerable to hubris.  Nintendo is probably the worst, but all 3 have had their blunders in the past based on hubris.  I don't think it is a coincidence that Sony's biggest blunder, the PS3 came right after their biggest success, the PS2.  Just like the Wii U followed the Wii, because Nintendo was too full of themselves to release a smart console at the time. 

Nintendo was humbled by the Wii U and released the Switch.  That was a smart move.  I think XBox's entertainment division has been humbled by the XB1, so I wouldn't be surprised if their next console is more solid all around.  Sony?  They are currently very successful.  That is a dangerous place to be.  This is where they can actually prove if they have learned their lesson from the PS3.  It was easy for Sony to be humble when they released the PS4.  If they can release another $399 console without any baggage again, then they will have shown that they've learned their lesson.  But I have to wait until the official announcement before I pass judgement one way or the other.



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Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
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Trumpstyle on 27 January 2019
Intrinsic said:

 

 

Trumpstyle said: 

I'm glad you finding so much wrong with my post but let me explain. About the GPU.

First a 40CU (xbox one X SOC) clocked at 1800mhz on 7nm transistors will probably pull about 200w we need to get that number down to 100-120W. Looking at Vega for both 14nm/7nm, the chinese console and amds own apu with just 11CU at 210mm2 die I just can't get the math to support a gpu that has more than 9TF. Just looking at Vega VII with 338mm2 die at 7nm having just 60CU we can conclude it's very unlikely we will see more than 60CU on PS5. And based on towshardware vega 56 review on how much power this card pull at varies clock-speed my conclusion is that PS5 will have about 56CU clocked at 1200-1300 MHZ. Which is actually pretty close to what you wrote.

RAM and Storage:

There's two reason I believe we will see 12 GB ram and not the common-sense prediction of 16 or 24 GB of ram. The first is prices of GDDR6 seems a good amount higher than Gddr5 and second there won't be any need for more Ram anyways because PS5 will use AMDs High-bandwidth cache controller (HBCC) which will make the ram usage much more efficient.

Because of HBCC next-gen consoles will go 1TB NVME ssd drives which is needed to use HBCC, now I seen some people thinking the price to high, but right now looking at Newegg 1TB NVMe cost between 155-180$ (I'm assuming Sony buys this stuff half the price at retail) and those are high quality NVMe SSDs (intel 660p, HP EX920 and Corsair Force MP300). Prices also predicted to drop between 20-50% this year and will likely drop a good amount during next-gen because of very high competition making 1TB NVMe ssd drive an excellent choice.

 

As fr your storage thing...... You d realize that an Nvme drive cost about 120% more than a standard SATA SSD drive right?

e.g Right now on amazon 1TB M.2 Sata SSD cost $135 meanwhile a 1TB M.2 NVme cost $330.

Its possible that sony and ms can et 1TB Sata SSDs for around $45 - $55 in 2020. It however is impossible that they will et NVME SSDs for that price in 2020. 

No NVMe SSDs? No HBCC. Then again there is another way all this can be solved but hat is not what you are talking about.

Yes my TF number is based on Vega, I don't expect Navi to improve the TF number but to improve perf/TF.

I'm not sure how you missed my part on NVME prices, all links below are 1TB.

https://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16820167462&ignorebbr=1 (Intel 660p NVMe drive for 155$)

https://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16820326778&ignorebbr=1 (HP EX920 NVMe drive for 168$)

https://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16820236396&ignorebbr=1 (Corsair Force MP300 for 180$)

I'm sure you can find those at Amazon for similiar prices, but I don't like the Amazon homepage as it looks like it was designed in 1990 and never received an update.



6x master league achiever in starcraft2

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zorg1000 on 27 January 2019
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

I dont know much about this stuff but what would a console like you're proposing cost? And how big of a jump would it be over PS4 Pro/XB1X?

That depends.

Lets take the PS4 back in 2013 for instance

 

  • APU $120 (28nm 348mm2)
  • RAM $62 (16 x 4Gb modules in clamshell/ currently using 8 x 8Gb modules) 
  • HDD $23
  • BRD $25
Thats $230 for what I would consider the essential components. Other stuff are thins like cooling, PSU, controller, assembly.....etc. But this should give you an idea of what they are willing to spend in each field.
Now for the PS5 and without going into to much details it would be something like this
  • APU $120-$150 (7nm chip 350mm2 - 370mm2)
  • RAM $70 - $90 (8 - 12 x 16Gb modules GDDR6)
  • HDD/SSD $25 2TB HDD / $45 1TB SSD
  • BRD $25 
That will put us in the $240 - $310 bracket.
If going with a $240 setup then they will retail for $399. A $310 setup will probably end up being a $500 console when all other components are added.
At $399 you end up with a
  • CPU that is about 6 times better than whats in the PS4/XB1 and 4 times better than whats in the PS4pro/XB1X
  • GPU of around 10TF which is like 6 times better than whats in the base PS4 and about 2.5 times better than whats in the Pro
  • 16 GB of RAM 
For a $499 system the CPU will be the same and the GPU and RAM will go up a bit.

I could be wrong but that honestly doesnt sound like that big of a jump. 6x CPU/GPU and 2x RAM when compared to base models (less when compared to Pro/X).



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Intrinsic on 27 January 2019
Trumpstyle said:
Intrinsic said:

 

 

As fr your storage thing...... You d realize that an Nvme drive cost about 120% more than a standard SATA SSD drive right?

e.g Right now on amazon 1TB M.2 Sata SSD cost $135 meanwhile a 1TB M.2 NVme cost $330.

Its possible that sony and ms can et 1TB Sata SSDs for around $45 - $55 in 2020. It however is impossible that they will et NVME SSDs for that price in 2020. 

No NVMe SSDs? No HBCC. Then again there is another way all this can be solved but hat is not what you are talking about.

Yes my TF number is based on Vega, I don't expect Navi to improve the TF number but to improve perf/TF.

 

Well you shouldn't do that.

The two things Navi is expected to improve is scalability (so no more 64CU limit) and efficiency (less power required to hit higher frequencies).   

zorg1000 said:

I could be wrong but that honestly doesnt sound like that big of a jump. 6x CPU/GPU and 2x RAM when compared to base models (less when compared to Pro/X).

Its actually a lot.

On the CPU side a 6 times improvement means the major thing devs complained about the current gen consoles is no more. And the CPU pretty much defines what is possible in game design as opposed t how a game looks which is the GPU. It shapes game design industry wide because n matter how powerful CPUs are n the PC side of thins devs still make their games around the constraints of the consoles.

As for the GPU, we are talking abut going from 1.8TF to 10TF+. And nothing everything in a graphic pipeline scales with resolution. A good way to look at it is this, look at say GOW/Horizon/Spiderman. Now picture those "made" exclusively for hardware that is 6-8 times more powerful.

As for RAM..... lets just say RAM is one of those thins that doesn't need to scale up as much as it used to before. 16GB f RAM is a lot if used exclusively for the games. Of the 8GB available in the PS4/XB1 only 5GB of that RAM is used for games. The rest is for the OS. So having 16GB dedicated to games is a 3 time increase and thats a lot. And I expect them t also have 8GB of LPDDR4 ram just for the OS. If anything what is more important (and as sony already hinted ) when it comes to Ram is bandwidth. There are those that even feel having 16GB of RAM is excessive.   



Eagle367 on 28 January 2019
d21lewis said:
Eagle367 said:
Sony's doing awesome for sure. Hope they don't get cocky though. They have a tendency to do that after success stories. I mean PS3 sold a shit ton and yet was a bigger failure than the Wii U in terms of money made. So hope they keep their heads down and do what they did with PS2 and ps4 and deliver an awesome PS5. But I do think that the next 3 years are the switch's since first year PS5 can't possibly cross switch just like switch first 2 years didn't. And remember that is with switch being ahead in the us in the same timeframe and massively still in Japan. Maybe even ps5's first 2 years it won't be no.1. we'll see what happens though. Do they screw up? Is it Microsoft's time to take back some of the gamers like it did with 360? How much close to PS4 will switch get and will it cross it? Definitely an interesting time in terms of analytics in gaming

I wouldn't say that doing something one time equals "they tend to do it". Sony kinda has this thing figured out.

Also, before somebody says vita, I think it was a worthy successor with lots of great ideas for (at the time) the same price as the 3DS. It just didn't catch on at all.

Well when you only have 4 iterations and start acting the same way you did when you had another huge success and right before your huge failure, it's what they tend to do in my eyes. I don't think they have it figured out because of their attitude in some ways like censorship of japanese games, crossplay etc. Even when they cave on crossplay, they're not letting every game have it. 

P.S: Your post took forever to find. Vgchartz takes me to my og comment instead of taking me to the reply and that's so stupid, I had to comb through every comment just to get to you. Dam that was annoying and a waste of time



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Intrinsic on 28 January 2019
Eagle367 said:
d21lewis said:

I wouldn't say that doing something one time equals "they tend to do it". Sony kinda has this thing figured out.

Also, before somebody says vita, I think it was a worthy successor with lots of great ideas for (at the time) the same price as the 3DS. It just didn't catch on at all.

Well when you only have 4 iterations and start acting the same way you did when you had another huge success and right before your huge failure, it's what they tend to do in my eyes. I don't think they have it figured out because of their attitude in some ways like censorship of japanese games, crossplay etc. Even when they cave on crossplay, they're not letting every game have it. 

P.S: Your post took forever to find. Vgchartz takes me to my og comment instead of taking me to the reply and that's so stupid, I had to comb through every comment just to get to you. Dam that was annoying and a waste of time

I am sorry..... but thats not the return of "arrogant" sony. 

And if we are to be honest what did all their arrogance result in? Making a $850 console and selling it for $600?



Evilms on 28 January 2019

Last edited by Evilms - on 28 January 2019

Zombie9ers on 28 January 2019
Evilms said:

Europe and the rest of the world are becoming more and more of a strength for Sony- as the PS4 is now no. 2 all time for home consoles in both of those territories - only trailing behind the PS2.