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Forums - Sales Discussion - ZhugeEX "Xbox One sales around 41m"

so its an anlayst.... normally we dont trust them .......



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Intrinsic said:
'Juat so I am clear as not t jump to any unfunded conclusionsThe_Liquid_Laser said:

More than 50% believe that, but it is not a consensus.  In this case the majority are wrong.

Just so I am sure and not to jump to conclusions.

So you believe the NS is a 9th gen console? And as such the NS already has a 30M+ lead into the 9th gen?

If your answers to the above is yes and yes then my next question is.

If consoles are grouped into generations by a combination of factors like time/period of release, technologies that define the platform and software library...... how can something that is released in the 8th gen (in the time of the PS4/XB1), shares a library with other 8th gen platforms (when we say NS gets multiplat games we are talking of games that are also on the PS4/XB1) and uses technology similar to other 8th gen platforms (UE4, Unity....etc) be considered as a 9th gen platform?

Also, so if your theory still persists, when the "other" 9th gen consoles are released (PS5/XB4) what does that make the NS when it no longer recives ports of "multiplat games" because its hardware can't handle them? Further more' what do we now cal the NS2 which could be released in 2023/2024 that can then handle mutiplats from the other PS5/XB4? 10th gen? 

I really dont get all the generation talk, it's this simple when PS4/XBO/Wii U were the main platforms, those were current gen. PS4/XBO are still the main platforms and Nintendo replaced Wii U with NSW, now those are current gen. In the next 2 years Sony/MS will replace PS4/XBO with PS5/XB4 and Nintendo will stick to NSW, when that happens PS5/XB4/NSW will be current gen.

I dont think anyone other than Wikipedia lists generations by numbers, it's usually just previous, current or next.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

RolStoppable said:
This means that Switch will most likely pass the XB1 in LTD sales before 2019 is over. I'd say for sure, but Nintendo's release schedule remains a mystery and therefore the first 6-9 months of the year could be quite meh.

Definitely a possibility. Nintendo should up YOY, at least slightly, and going by Amazon the XBO isn't off to a great start this year.



colafitte said:
CGI-Quality said:

Eh, I imagine 50m being obtained by launch time, especially considering the pegged timeframe points to 2020. 

You think so?. XBO seems to have sold around 6'5M in 2018. If XBO sells, let's say, 5M in 2019, it will need 4M before next XBOX launch in 2020 (all of this if next XBO launch in 2020 and not in 2019).

I really think it won't reach 50M before that.

The rumored disc less and super slim console if priced right will give it a decent enough sales boost to reach 50 million before the next one gets released.



Evilms said:

For the moment it looks like :  PS4 > WiiU+XBO+Switch. 

It reminds me a little of the PS2 versus the xbox, game cube and the dreamcast :)

Nah, PS2 dominated even more it was like 150million versus 60 million.



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Chris Hu said:
colafitte said:

You think so?. XBO seems to have sold around 6'5M in 2018. If XBO sells, let's say, 5M in 2019, it will need 4M before next XBOX launch in 2020 (all of this if next XBO launch in 2020 and not in 2019).

I really think it won't reach 50M before that.

The rumored disc less and super slim console if priced right will give it a decent enough sales boost to reach 50 million before the next one gets released.

Maybe, but until the rumors become true, i will keep my prediction. Switch rumors were saying a revision is coming this year too and Nintendo said recently that they don't expect succesors or price cuts in the foreseable future, so.....



colafitte said:
Chris Hu said:

The rumored disc less and super slim console if priced right will give it a decent enough sales boost to reach 50 million before the next one gets released.

Maybe, but until the rumors become true, i will keep my prediction. Switch rumors were saying a revision is coming this year too and Nintendo said recently that they don't expect succesors or price cuts in the foreseable future, so.....

Well yeah nobody is going to admit anything about a revision/price cut until they are ready to announce it.

Remember back in 2012 when Miyamoto said in an interview that they had no plans for a 3DS revision and 3 weeks later a revision was announced?

Companies announce things on their terms, not when people ask them in interviews.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Intrinsic said:
'Juat so I am clear as not t jump to any unfunded conclusionsThe_Liquid_Laser said:

More than 50% believe that, but it is not a consensus.  In this case the majority are wrong.

Just so I am sure and not to jump to conclusions.

So you believe the NS is a 9th gen console? And as such the NS already has a 30M+ lead into the 9th gen?

If your answers to the above is yes and yes then my next question is.

If consoles are grouped into generations by a combination of factors like time/period of release, technologies that define the platform and software library...... how can something that is released in the 8th gen (in the time of the PS4/XB1), shares a library with other 8th gen platforms (when we say NS gets multiplat games we are talking of games that are also on the PS4/XB1) and uses technology similar to other 8th gen platforms (UE4, Unity....etc) be considered as a 9th gen platform?

Also, so if your theory still persists, when the "other" 9th gen consoles are released (PS5/XB4) what does that make the NS when it no longer recives ports of "multiplat games" because its hardware can't handle them? Further more' what do we now cal the NS2 which could be released in 2023/2024 that can then handle mutiplats from the other PS5/XB4? 10th gen? 

I do believe that Switch is 9th gen and it has a 30M+ lead.  Yes.

But I would like to understand what you mean exactly by "technology"?  What generation would you put the Wii into?

zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

Just so I am sure and not to jump to conclusions.

So you believe the NS is a 9th gen console? And as such the NS already has a 30M+ lead into the 9th gen?

If your answers to the above is yes and yes then my next question is.

If consoles are grouped into generations by a combination of factors like time/period of release, technologies that define the platform and software library...... how can something that is released in the 8th gen (in the time of the PS4/XB1), shares a library with other 8th gen platforms (when we say NS gets multiplat games we are talking of games that are also on the PS4/XB1) and uses technology similar to other 8th gen platforms (UE4, Unity....etc) be considered as a 9th gen platform?

Also, so if your theory still persists, when the "other" 9th gen consoles are released (PS5/XB4) what does that make the NS when it no longer recives ports of "multiplat games" because its hardware can't handle them? Further more' what do we now cal the NS2 which could be released in 2023/2024 that can then handle mutiplats from the other PS5/XB4? 10th gen? 

I really dont get all the generation talk, it's this simple when PS4/XBO/Wii U were the main platforms, those were current gen. PS4/XBO are still the main platforms and Nintendo replaced Wii U with NSW, now those are current gen. In the next 2 years Sony/MS will replace PS4/XBO with PS5/XB4 and Nintendo will stick to NSW, when that happens PS5/XB4/NSW will be current gen.

I dont think anyone other than Wikipedia lists generations by numbers, it's usually just previous, current or next.

I certainly DO list the generations by numbers.  The term "current generation" is a misleading term that was started by the NPD (because they are a business).  Some of the NPD's customers are game developers releasing games on PS4 and XB1.  They don't want to piss off their customers by saying these games are coming out on a last gen console.  So they just say everything is "current gen".

But the term is misleading.  If you really want to understand the Genesis, for example, then it would be confusing to say that it was "current gen" with the NES.  Even in 1989 it wasn't current gen with the NES.  In 1989 the NES was a runaway sales juggernaut that could not be stopped.  If you compare the Genesis to the NES it looks like a pathetic console that was cast aside, much like the Master System was.  That type of comparison is an unfair analysis of Sega's most successful console.

On the other hand if you look at NES as generation 3 and Genesis as generation 4, then you see that Genesis was actually getting a 2-year head start on the SNES.  This is a more accurate picture of the Genesis. Sega was still figuring the console business out, and these 2 years let them get a solid footing.  It gave them time to market the console so that they had name recognition, "Genesis does what Nintendon't".  It have them time to develop a killer app (e.g. Sonic).  And most importantly, every game that they made in 89 and 90 was still available to compete with the SNES when it launched.  So the SNES had to fight against another console that already had a sizable game library already in stores.

That is why it is appropriate to say that Switch is generation 9.  It's success has not slowed down the PS4's success in the slightest.  That's because there are underlying phenomena going on, like the people who adopt a console early are different that the late adopters.  Switch is selling to people who are ready to move on from 3DS/Wii U/PS4/XB1.  A few might want a technology upgrade, but most just want a new set of games to play.  The Switch is just as much a legitimate next gen device as a PS5 or Scarlet, because what people want most is a new set of games to play.    Whenever PS5 and Scarlet release, Switch will have a 2-4 year head start with it's game library.  That is a huge head start.  That is much stronger than what the Genesis had, because it's first two years were ok, but not exceptional compared to its later games.  Switch, on the other hand, already has several killer apps and the list is growing, not to mention a huge game library.  The longer Sony and Microsoft wait to release, the harder it will be for them to compete.

Switch is generation 9, because it's success has not hampered PS4 or XB1 in the slightest.  It most definitely will hamper the success of PS5 and Scarlett.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Intrinsic said:

Just so I am sure and not to jump to conclusions.

So you believe the NS is a 9th gen console? And as such the NS already has a 30M+ lead into the 9th gen?

If your answers to the above is yes and yes then my next question is.

If consoles are grouped into generations by a combination of factors like time/period of release, technologies that define the platform and software library...... how can something that is released in the 8th gen (in the time of the PS4/XB1), shares a library with other 8th gen platforms (when we say NS gets multiplat games we are talking of games that are also on the PS4/XB1) and uses technology similar to other 8th gen platforms (UE4, Unity....etc) be considered as a 9th gen platform?

Also, so if your theory still persists, when the "other" 9th gen consoles are released (PS5/XB4) what does that make the NS when it no longer recives ports of "multiplat games" because its hardware can't handle them? Further more' what do we now cal the NS2 which could be released in 2023/2024 that can then handle mutiplats from the other PS5/XB4? 10th gen? 

I do believe that Switch is 9th gen and it has a 30M+ lead.  Yes.

But I would like to understand what you mean exactly by "technology"?  What generation would you put the Wii into?

zorg1000 said:

I really dont get all the generation talk, it's this simple when PS4/XBO/Wii U were the main platforms, those were current gen. PS4/XBO are still the main platforms and Nintendo replaced Wii U with NSW, now those are current gen. In the next 2 years Sony/MS will replace PS4/XBO with PS5/XB4 and Nintendo will stick to NSW, when that happens PS5/XB4/NSW will be current gen.

I dont think anyone other than Wikipedia lists generations by numbers, it's usually just previous, current or next.

I certainly DO list the generations by numbers.  The term "current generation" is a misleading term that was started by the NPD (because they are a business).  Some of the NPD's customers are game developers releasing games on PS4 and XB1.  They don't want to piss off their customers by saying these games are coming out on a last gen console.  So they just say everything is "current gen".

But the term is misleading.  If you really want to understand the Genesis, for example, then it would be confusing to say that it was "current gen" with the NES.  Even in 1989 it wasn't current gen with the NES.  In 1989 the NES was a runaway sales juggernaut that could not be stopped.  If you compare the Genesis to the NES it looks like a pathetic console that was cast aside, much like the Master System was.  That type of comparison is an unfair analysis of Sega's most successful console.

On the other hand if you look at NES as generation 3 and Genesis as generation 4, then you see that Genesis was actually getting a 2-year head start on the SNES.  This is a more accurate picture of the Genesis. Sega was still figuring the console business out, and these 2 years let them get a solid footing.  It gave them time to market the console so that they had name recognition, "Genesis does what Nintendon't".  It have them time to develop a killer app (e.g. Sonic).  And most importantly, every game that they made in 89 and 90 was still available to compete with the SNES when it launched.  So the SNES had to fight against another console that already had a sizable game library already in stores.

That is why it is appropriate to say that Switch is generation 9.  It's success has not slowed down the PS4's success in the slightest.  That's because there are underlying phenomena going on, like the people who adopt a console early are different that the late adopters.  Switch is selling to people who are ready to move on from 3DS/Wii U/PS4/XB1.  A few might want a technology upgrade, but most just want a new set of games to play.  The Switch is just as much a legitimate next gen device as a PS5 or Scarlet, because what people want most is a new set of games to play.    Whenever PS5 and Scarlet release, Switch will have a 2-4 year head start with it's game library.  That is a huge head start.  That is much stronger than what the Genesis had, because it's first two years were ok, but not exceptional compared to its later games.  Switch, on the other hand, already has several killer apps and the list is growing, not to mention a huge game library.  The longer Sony and Microsoft wait to release, the harder it will be for them to compete.

Switch is generation 9, because it's success has not hampered PS4 or XB1 in the slightest.  It most definitely will hamper the success of PS5 and Scarlett.

I disagree with pretty much all of that.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

Maybe, but until the rumors become true, i will keep my prediction. Switch rumors were saying a revision is coming this year too and Nintendo said recently that they don't expect succesors or price cuts in the foreseable future, so.....

Well yeah nobody is going to admit anything about a revision/price cut until they are ready to announce it.

Remember back in 2012 when Miyamoto said in an interview that they had no plans for a 3DS revision and 3 weeks later a revision was announced?

Companies announce things on their terms, not when people ask them in interviews.

I know, i know, every company is a bunch of liars about these things, but It was the way how they said it. They sound convinced Switch is doing extremely good and doesn't need any revision or price cut. I think they're telling the truth and i think the same. Revisions and price cuts is losing money when your console is going to sell 17-18M anyway in an upward trend while the software sales keeps getting better and better.

That's what Sony did with PS4 after the $300 price seemed to work fine (the only revision was cosmetical) and i think Nintendo is going to do the same...