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Forums - Sales Discussion - ZhugeEX "Xbox One sales around 41m"

d21lewis on 25 January 2019
Intrinsic said:
Random_Matt said:
MS only have themselves to blame, anyone liking their streaming ambition?

Right now MS is just like a headless chicken as far as their xbox division is concerned.

They are literally doing the whole throw everything at the wall and see what sticks approach.

Make super cheap streaming only box. Make mid tier $300-$400 box and then make enthusiast tier $500-$600 box.

And after 3 years on the market the NS would have outsold the XB1.

Well, the Switch is a force of nature. It'll outsell a lot of things. Xbox One is competing with two juggernauts right now.



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Kerotan on 25 January 2019
Chicho said:
I don't think PS5 and Xbox one 2 will realease in 2019. 2021 is more likely

I'd love a 2021 release. Perfect for me and OLED TV's will have made some big improvements and come down in price by then. I'd love it but 2020 or is likely what happens. 

Blood_Tears said:
Holy Shit, X1 adjusted down by 2 million?

Yep. It was heavily over tracked. It was hard to track because MS never gave any hints. 

Evilms said:

From the same thread on era.

 

In USA : 

PS4 : 28.4 m (54%)

XB1 : 24.5 m (46%)

 

Rest of world :

PS4 : 63.2 m (79%)

XB1 : 16.5 m (21%)

That worldwide ratio is insane. Excluding the US the ps4 outsells xbox 5:1. God if Sony increase their US share again next gen MS are in for a rough ride. Lots of pressure on them. 



colafitte on 25 January 2019
zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

If XBO sells 5M in 2019 I just see impossible to sell 4M in 2020 if next gen comes around November.

But anyway around 50M is still a good number for a console, and if it is profitable, Microsoft is happy. 

What about 5.3 & 3.7 million?

If 2018 was ~6.5m than that's a ~18% drop followed by a ~30% drop.

5'3M in 2019 is possible but remember I was saying before next gen Xbox coming in 2020. Let's say it comes like XBO on Nov 22. If XBO is 3'7M by then in 2020, there is still the holiday season to sell so at least it would be another 500k sold I guess. So 3'7 suddenly becomes 4'2 or something similar and that is just a 20% drop YOY. 

It could happen but I really think XBO will drop way more than ps4 this last 2 years because XBO depends much more in the US market. 

It should be around 49-50 anyway by November 2020, so a few more k's or less won't matter that much.



The_Liquid_Laser on 25 January 2019
curl-6 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

The PS3 waited 7 years, because it was such an ambitious console with ambitious specs.  It launched with a $500/$600 price tag.  It actually got a $400 model in 2007 which would be 6 years before the PS4 launch.  Also financial losses were a big factor why Sony waited to release the PS4.  It needed to make sure that it wouldn't sell at too much of a loss even at launch.

The PS4 was not considered to have ambitious specs when it launched.  Also Sony is not hurting financially like they were during the PS3 years.  There is no business reason for Sony to wait.  It is smarter business for them to release in 2019.

As for Microsoft, they are a wildcard.  They are still figuring out the console business in a lot of ways.  Also a lot of their strategy is around figuring out how to "punk" Sony in some way.  If they can upstage Sony then they will do it.  With the XBox360 they upstaged Sony by releasing a year early.  But they might come up with some new tactic for their next console.  We'll just have to wait and see.

What about riding the PS4 gravy train for as long as possible as they're making money on it and are under no pressure to move on to the next gen?

When Sony released the PS2, the PS1 continued to sell with very long legs.  It's gravy train did not end when the PS2 released.
When Sony released the PS3, the PS2 continued its gravy train continued for a long time.
The PS4 is a very solid console like the PS1 and the PS2.  It will have strong legs even after the PS5 releases, regardless if it comes out in 2019 or a later year. 

What Sony needs to be worried about is the PS5.  The PS2 was the best selling console of all time and that did not help the PS3 one bit.  The PS4 is very solid, but that will not help the PS5 one bit.  The longer they wait to release the PS5, the harder time it will have in the marketplace.  The Switch already has a head start that is two years old and growing.  Are they going to let Microsoft have a head start too?  How much are they going to cripple the PS5 before it even launches?



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
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Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
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Dr.Vita on 25 January 2019

50M after everything is said and done. Pretty much the same as most people predicted years ago.




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Intrinsic on 25 January 2019
Evilms said:

From the same thread on era.

 

In USA : 

PS4 : 28.4 m (54%)

XB1 : 24.5 m (46%)

 

Rest of world :

PS4 : 63.2 m (79%)

XB1 : 16.5 m (21%)

This here shows just how much work MS really needs to do.

They can even have a 15M lead over the PS5 in NA but it will mean nothing when PS5 has a 40M+ lead over them from everywhere else.



TheBlackNaruto on 25 January 2019
The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

What about riding the PS4 gravy train for as long as possible as they're making money on it and are under no pressure to move on to the next gen?

When Sony released the PS2, the PS1 continued to sell with very long legs.  It's gravy train did not end when the PS2 released.
When Sony released the PS3, the PS2 continued its gravy train continued for a long time.
The PS4 is a very solid console like the PS1 and the PS2.  It will have strong legs even after the PS5 releases, regardless if it comes out in 2019 or a later year. 

What Sony needs to be worried about is the PS5.  The PS2 was the best selling console of all time and that did not help the PS3 one bit.  The PS4 is very solid, but that will not help the PS5 one bit.  The longer they wait to release the PS5, the harder time it will have in the marketplace.  The Switch already has a head start that is two years old and growing.  Are they going to let Microsoft have a head start too?  How much are they going to cripple the PS5 before it even launches?

Switch is Gen 8 not 9 so it has no head start to be honest. At least that is the consensus. And neither company is releasing the next gen system this year. Both will be next year at the earliest. In my opinion that is anyway. And Sony would be foolish also in my opinion to release the PS5 this year when they are just SLIGHTLY down from their 2017 peak year. Next year would be perfect for the PS5 release.



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Evilms on 25 January 2019

For the moment it looks like :  PS4 > WiiU+XBO+Switch. 

It reminds me a little of the PS2 versus the xbox, game cube and the dreamcast :)



The_Liquid_Laser on 25 January 2019
TheBlackNaruto said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

When Sony released the PS2, the PS1 continued to sell with very long legs.  It's gravy train did not end when the PS2 released.
When Sony released the PS3, the PS2 continued its gravy train continued for a long time.
The PS4 is a very solid console like the PS1 and the PS2.  It will have strong legs even after the PS5 releases, regardless if it comes out in 2019 or a later year. 

What Sony needs to be worried about is the PS5.  The PS2 was the best selling console of all time and that did not help the PS3 one bit.  The PS4 is very solid, but that will not help the PS5 one bit.  The longer they wait to release the PS5, the harder time it will have in the marketplace.  The Switch already has a head start that is two years old and growing.  Are they going to let Microsoft have a head start too?  How much are they going to cripple the PS5 before it even launches?

Switch is Gen 8 not 9 so it has no head start to be honest. At least that is the consensus. 

More than 50% believe that, but it is not a consensus.  In this case the majority are wrong.

Mnementh said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

The PS3 waited 7 years, because it was such an ambitious console with ambitious specs.  It launched with a $500/$600 price tag.  It actually got a $400 model in 2007 which would be 6 years before the PS4 launch.  Also financial losses were a big factor why Sony waited to release the PS4.  It needed to make sure that it wouldn't sell at too much of a loss even at launch.

The PS4 was not considered to have ambitious specs when it launched.  Also Sony is not hurting financially like they were during the PS3 years.  There is no business reason for Sony to wait.  It is smarter business for them to release in 2019.

As for Microsoft, they are a wildcard.  They are still figuring out the console business in a lot of ways.  Also a lot of their strategy is around figuring out how to "punk" Sony in some way.  If they can upstage Sony then they will do it.  With the XBox360 they upstaged Sony by releasing a year early.  But they might come up with some new tactic for their next console.  We'll just have to wait and see.

Well, PS3 peaked 2011 and PS4 released end of 2013. As PS4 peaked 2017, a release at the end of 2019 seems not out of question.

But it is not that simple. PS4 dropped in 2018 around 10%, PS3 dropped 15% in 2012. More importantly: PS3-software-sales dropped by 13% in 2012, PS4-software sales grew by 6%! So maybe Sony is willing to sit out the PS4 for a bit longer. Late in cycle they can cash in more on games, royalties and probably on hardware (PS4 also has no pricecut for some time). If sales start to drop more significantly, especially for software the new gen will come.

So, as I see it Sony might be comfortable to wait out the new gen a bit longer, as they have the sales on their side. That could still mean they drop the PS5 in the holidays this year, if sales drop sharply in 2019 (although the still have the pricecut card in their hands), but may wait a little longer if sales are fine. So maybe early 2020 (like Switch) or holidays 2020. I expect no later launch.

This comfortable sales situation is even better for Sony, as they possibly can wait out for MS to make the first move. They can access the main marketing points for the new XBox and counter it.

MS is in a more dire situation. The sales peaked back in 2015, and while the sales still decrease slowly, they decrease. On the software side of things it looks better though, still good sales. Also MS is not in need of cash. So I'm not sure about them. They may target a 2019 launch ... or not.

You bring up a good point, and I think that is the sort of thing that depends on the health of the company as a whole.  Sony, as a whole, was not doing well during the PS3 years.  They had to be a lot more careful with spending and release schedules and so forth.  My understanding is that Sony, as a whole, is doing pretty well right now.  Obviously their gaming division is making good money, and I know their movies are making money.  (Not sure about their other divisions.)

So if they are doing well, then they can afford to worry more about their next console.  I don't think releasing a PS5 in 2019 will kill their profits from the PS4.  Consoles in their final few years make a lot of profit even if there is a newer console on the market.  They really are smarter releasing in 2019.  Another blunder like the PS3 will cost them a lot more than they will get in PS4 profits by releasing later.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

Intrinsic on 25 January 2019
'Juat so I am clear as not t jump to any unfunded conclusionsThe_Liquid_Laser said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

Switch is Gen 8 not 9 so it has no head start to be honest. At least that is the consensus. 

More than 50% believe that, but it is not a consensus.  In this case the majority are wrong.

Just so I am sure and not to jump to conclusions.

So you believe the NS is a 9th gen console? And as such the NS already has a 30M+ lead into the 9th gen?

If your answers to the above is yes and yes then my next question is.

If consoles are grouped into generations by a combination of factors like time/period of release, technologies that define the platform and software library...... how can something that is released in the 8th gen (in the time of the PS4/XB1), shares a library with other 8th gen platforms (when we say NS gets multiplat games we are talking of games that are also on the PS4/XB1) and uses technology similar to other 8th gen platforms (UE4, Unity....etc) be considered as a 9th gen platform?

Also, so if your theory still persists, when the "other" 9th gen consoles are released (PS5/XB4) what does that make the NS when it no longer recives ports of "multiplat games" because its hardware can't handle them? Further more' what do we now cal the NS2 which could be released in 2023/2024 that can then handle mutiplats from the other PS5/XB4? 10th gen?