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Forums - Sales Discussion - ZhugeEX "Xbox One sales around 41m"

curl-6 on 24 January 2019
The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

The big 3 have "waited too long" before. PS3/360 weren't replaced until 7/8 years after they launched.

The PS3 waited 7 years, because it was such an ambitious console with ambitious specs.  It launched with a $500/$600 price tag.  It actually got a $400 model in 2007 which would be 6 years before the PS4 launch.  Also financial losses were a big factor why Sony waited to release the PS4.  It needed to make sure that it wouldn't sell at too much of a loss even at launch.

The PS4 was not considered to have ambitious specs when it launched.  Also Sony is not hurting financially like they were during the PS3 years.  There is no business reason for Sony to wait.  It is smarter business for them to release in 2019.

As for Microsoft, they are a wildcard.  They are still figuring out the console business in a lot of ways.  Also a lot of their strategy is around figuring out how to "punk" Sony in some way.  If they can upstage Sony then they will do it.  With the XBox360 they upstaged Sony by releasing a year early.  But they might come up with some new tactic for their next console.  We'll just have to wait and see.

What about riding the PS4 gravy train for as long as possible as they're making money on it and are under no pressure to move on to the next gen?



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zorg1000 on 24 January 2019
colafitte said:
CGI-Quality said:

Roughly 4-5 million each year (perhaps a bit less next). 

If XBO sells 5M in 2019 I just see impossible to sell 4M in 2020 if next gen comes around November.

But anyway around 50M is still a good number for a console, and if it is profitable, Microsoft is happy. 

What about 5.3 & 3.7 million?

If 2018 was ~6.5m than that's a ~18% drop followed by a ~30% drop.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Chicho on 25 January 2019

I don't think PS5 and Xbox one 2 will realease in 2019. 2021 is more likely



polofresco on 25 January 2019

Great Job



polofresco on 25 January 2019

Is there is any chance that we can see Spanish numbers or another countries in the main/front page?



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derpysquirtle64 on 25 January 2019
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Kerotan said: 

Good point regarding release. I think we all just assume MS won't want Sony getting a head start and will either release with the ps4 or jump the gun. 

Actually, I think either Sony or Microsoft (or both) will release in 2019.  That would be "on time", especially for Sony.  Also if one of them releases in 2019 and the other waits, then the first one to release steals the spotlight from the other.  The only good reason to release in 2020 is to get the benefit from selling out early in the year like Switch did with its launch.  But the marketing buzz will be a lot stronger for someone releasing around holiday season 2019.  Both of these times are good.  Anything after this is really waiting too long.

Won’t happen. The hardware isn’t ready for a 2019 release. And with the next Xbox it is already known that the devs don’t even have devkits yet. So, 2020 release is the earliest possible. 



 

Blood_Tears on 25 January 2019

Holy Shit, X1 adjusted down by 2 million?



Evilms on 25 January 2019

From the same thread on era.

 

In USA : 

PS4 : 28.4 m (54%)

XB1 : 24.5 m (46%)

 

Rest of world :

PS4 : 63.2 m (79%)

XB1 : 16.5 m (21%)

Last edited by Evilms - on 25 January 2019

Mnementh on 25 January 2019
The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

The big 3 have "waited too long" before. PS3/360 weren't replaced until 7/8 years after they launched.

The PS3 waited 7 years, because it was such an ambitious console with ambitious specs.  It launched with a $500/$600 price tag.  It actually got a $400 model in 2007 which would be 6 years before the PS4 launch.  Also financial losses were a big factor why Sony waited to release the PS4.  It needed to make sure that it wouldn't sell at too much of a loss even at launch.

The PS4 was not considered to have ambitious specs when it launched.  Also Sony is not hurting financially like they were during the PS3 years.  There is no business reason for Sony to wait.  It is smarter business for them to release in 2019.

As for Microsoft, they are a wildcard.  They are still figuring out the console business in a lot of ways.  Also a lot of their strategy is around figuring out how to "punk" Sony in some way.  If they can upstage Sony then they will do it.  With the XBox360 they upstaged Sony by releasing a year early.  But they might come up with some new tactic for their next console.  We'll just have to wait and see.

Well, PS3 peaked 2011 and PS4 released end of 2013. As PS4 peaked 2017, a release at the end of 2019 seems not out of question.

But it is not that simple. PS4 dropped in 2018 around 10%, PS3 dropped 15% in 2012. More importantly: PS3-software-sales dropped by 13% in 2012, PS4-software sales grew by 6%! So maybe Sony is willing to sit out the PS4 for a bit longer. Late in cycle they can cash in more on games, royalties and probably on hardware (PS4 also has no pricecut for some time). If sales start to drop more significantly, especially for software the new gen will come.

So, as I see it Sony might be comfortable to wait out the new gen a bit longer, as they have the sales on their side. That could still mean they drop the PS5 in the holidays this year, if sales drop sharply in 2019 (although the still have the pricecut card in their hands), but may wait a little longer if sales are fine. So maybe early 2020 (like Switch) or holidays 2020. I expect no later launch.

This comfortable sales situation is even better for Sony, as they possibly can wait out for MS to make the first move. They can access the main marketing points for the new XBox and counter it.

MS is in a more dire situation. The sales peaked back in 2015, and while the sales still decrease slowly, they decrease. On the software side of things it looks better though, still good sales. Also MS is not in need of cash. So I'm not sure about them. They may target a 2019 launch ... or not.



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Landale_Star on 25 January 2019
ironmanDX said:
BlackBeauty said:

Xbox one had multiple revisions to sell just 40 million. (Xbox one S, X, multiple storage configs & SKUs, limited editions etc)

The Wii U got only one so far. (The switch).

So Wii U won.

As we all know, the WiiU is just an add on to the Wii. Wii to sell 200 million and become greatest selling console ever?

But the Wii was just a glorified Gamecube with motion controls. Gamecube is Nintendo's greatest success ever?