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ZhugeEX "Xbox One sales around 41m"

Forums - Sales Discussion - ZhugeEX "Xbox One sales around 41m"

Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

Are individual indies major system sellers? Not likely. Are the combination of dozens of high quality indies a system seller? Potentially.

Games like Rocket League, Celeste, Hollow Knight, Dead Cells, Stardew Valley, Overcooked, Golf Story, etc have gotten alot of attention on Switch and most indies these days sell significantly more on Switch than other platforms, often more than all other platforms combined. For many of these games its also the only portable platform and many indie games are perfect for on the go gaming.

While this is true..... its also true that everything ets scaled up with each new gen. Chances are that there will be indie games made fr the PS5/XBn that also just won't run on the NS. 

Highly unlikely though as indie developers will focus maximizing their reach and sales so ensuring their games works on the NS will be a priority.

The number of indies that cant run on NSW in the next 5 years is probably pretty miniscule.

The only 3rd party support that Switch is really at risk of losing when PS5/XB4 release is AAA titles and Switch already doesnt get many of those.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

While this is true..... its also true that everything ets scaled up with each new gen. Chances are that there will be indie games made fr the PS5/XBn that also just won't run on the NS. 

Highly unlikely though as indie developers will focus maximizing their reach and sales so ensuring their games works on the NS will be a priority.

The number of indies that cant run on NSW in the next 5 years is probably pretty miniscule.

The only 3rd party support that Switch is really at risk of losing when PS5/XB4 release is AAA titles and Switch already doesnt get many of those.

I get that.

The reason I made that statement was to prove a point.

To point out that the games that really drive sales on the PS4/XB1 and ultimately on the PS5/XBn are games that while now may be able to run on a switch (doom/fortnite...etc) will not be able to run on the switch when their PS5/XBn iterations are released. I was tryin t pint ut to a certain poster that the vastly different libraries of the platforms means sony or MS has nothing to worry about with regards t the switch because the games that sell their hardware wll not make it to the switch anyways.

Like no one is going to buy a NS to play the next GTA, Assasins Creed, COD, Elder scrolls, Cyberpunk....... etc. 



Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

The number of indies that cant run on NSW in the next 5 years is probably pretty miniscule.

The only 3rd party support that Switch is really at risk of losing when PS5/XB4 release is AAA titles and Switch already doesnt get many of those.

I get that.

The reason I made that statement was to prove a point.

To point out that the games that really drive sales on the PS4/XB1 and ultimately on the PS5/XBn are games that while now may be able to run on a switch (doom/fortnite...etc) will not be able to run on the switch when their PS5/XBn iterations are released. I was tryin t pint ut to a certain poster that the vastly different libraries of the platforms means sony or MS has nothing to worry about with regards t the switch because the games that sell their hardware wll not make it to the switch anyways.

Like no one is going to buy a NS to play the next GTA, Assasins Creed, COD, Elder scrolls, Cyberpunk....... etc. 

Gotcha, I know there are a few users who think  Switch not being able to get ports of AAA PS5/XB4 games will affect it in a meaningful way, it seemed like that's what you were saying.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

As somebody who had an original Xbox growing up and loved the Xbox 360, MS lost me with the Xbone. 

It just wasn't a very interesting or appealing platform; it seemed like just a 360 an underwhelming graphics upgrade, and without the compelling games that made me buy a 360.

It's very unlikely at this stage I will buy the next gen Xbox.



zorg1000 said:

Gotcha, I know there are a few users who think  Switch not being able to get ports of AAA PS5/XB4 games will affect it in a meaningful way, it seemed like that's what you were saying.

Naaaa...... I don't think it will affect it. I have always been among those that believe that the switch isn't directly competing with the PS4/XB1. And the best prof of that is how much library independence exists between the NS and the the two platforms.

This is also why I say the NS will live and die on the strength of nintendo first party (though it seems indies are starting to fill the gaps which I didnt expect)

Nintendo platforms have never really got PS/XB type AAA games and Nintendo AAA are usually always exclusives anyway. I d believe that the NS will lose some momentum around when the new consoles are released though.. but that is just more due to an increased media buzz and focus on those consoles. 



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Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

Gotcha, I know there are a few users who think  Switch not being able to get ports of AAA PS5/XB4 games will affect it in a meaningful way, it seemed like that's what you were saying.

Naaaa...... I don't think it will affect it. I have always been among those that believe that the switch isn't directly competing with the PS4/XB1. And the best prof of that is how much library independence exists between the NS and the the two platforms.

This is also why I say the NS will live and die on the strength of nintendo first party (though it seems indies are starting to fill the gaps which I didnt expect)

Nintendo platforms have never really got PS/XB type AAA games and Nintendo AAA are usually always exclusives anyway. I d believe that the NS will lose some momentum around when the new consoles are released though.. but that is just more due to an increased media buzz and focus on those consoles. 

I dont think it's just indies but A-AA games in general are finding a home on Switch. Kid/family titles have always had a place on Nintendo platforms and they seem to be doing well on Switch.

Japanese support is really picking up and most mid level Japanese games on PS4 were multiplat on PSV/PS3/PS4 for the first few years so I assume the same will happen when PS5 releases, those games will have Switch/PS4 versions for the first ~2 years.

Free to play AA games like Fortnite, Paladins, Arena  of Valor & Warframe are doing well. I expect these type of games to keep coming to Switch for a few more years.

Retro games do well on Nintendo platforms too and Switch has gotten a ton of them already.

Same goes for 7th gen ports/remasters, publishers love releasing these and most of these are the first time they have been on a Nintendo console or on a portable.

None of these things individually are system sellers but the combination of them help give Switch a well rounded, diverse library.

 

Ya Switch will start losing momentum around the time PS5/XB4 release, 2020/2021 will be year 4/5 for Switch, a normal time to see decline.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

While this is true..... its also true that everything ets scaled up with each new gen. Chances are that there will be indie games made fr the PS5/XBn that also just won't run on the NS. 

Highly unlikely though as indie developers will focus maximizing their reach and sales so ensuring their games works on the NS will be a priority.

The number of indies that cant run on NSW in the next 5 years is probably pretty miniscule.

The only 3rd party support that Switch is really at risk of losing when PS5/XB4 release is AAA titles and Switch already doesnt get many of those.

The third party helps, but the switch is obviously selling because of exclusives. They need more in a timely fashion. Once they pass the xbox they will need at least two major titles per yer for the next three years.



thismeintiel said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

The next xbox will be coupled in harmony with Windows 10. I could see this affecting the name. Xbox is more about services than being focused on the console, so we'll see.

 

My prediction was 45 to 50 mil max by the end of gen. Ive been out of the loop on VG Chartz most of 2018, so my prediction was from 2017. 

I think the Windows thing actually hurts the chances of the XB2 or XBW(indows.)  I mean, if you can get all of their games on PC, why not upgrade your PC for about as much as the, probably, $499 Scarlet will cost?  Granted it would probably be closer to the base XB2 in power, but it'll still play all of their games.  I know there are some people, like myself, who just prefer console gaming.  Still, if you only get a XB2, it seems a little pointless.  A PS5+PC, like the PS4+PC of this gen, is just the way to go to get pretty much everything.  Just need a Switch to get everything.  I just don't see many people going XB2+PC or XB2+PC+Switch.

And it looks like your prediction is going to be close, maybe even spot on.  I think it will finish just north of 50M, maybe 52M, but it stops there.  This year doesn't look to be off to a good start, at least according to Amazon.  It's only SKU on the Top 100 for the year is at #95, and is $229 with a 1TB HDD and Minecraft with some bundled DLC.  That's $70 cheaper than the standalone PS4, which is at #49.  Even the $170 more expensive Pro is sitting at #82.

Yeah, the move Microsoft is currently making puts the Xbox at odds of maximizing marketshare. Because of their relationship wth third party, they would definitely need to cross their fingers that sony trips over their own feet again like last gen so they can pick up the pieces. Chances are (with sony paying attention) this wont happen anytime soon. Also, you're right that PC gamers have less of a reason to own an Xbox now, so honestly, I hope they maximize their output to reach the two billion gamers they projected to reach earlier. Phil Spencer has lofty goals and has already stated on television that the console isnt the main priority. Sony beat them back into reality, which got them to invest in first party. Hopefully this means they will find a happy middle ground, on their road to innovate software distribution to their many future consumer bases. Gamepass will also be on PC, so they Xbox should be more competitive on PC next gen (in the midst of this storefront war on PC).

As for my prediction, I thought the Xbox would sell similarly to the 360, but the problem is the only reason the 360 reached 86-87 million is because it had eight years to do it before the consoles successor launched. The PS3 had seven years and the 360 had eight and it pretty much ended in a tie, while the Wii won and moved on.

I don't know about Xbox reaching 52 million, but perhaps that might occur, given the software is up to par and inspiring console sales. Microsoft's marketing has proven to be amazing,because they've been selling well despite having so few console selling games. Its pretty much like they took a page out of EA or Activision's playbook.

Lets see what happens because the switch is coming for the Xbox and thats another prediction I had for Q4. Perhaps the switch my pass the xbox sooner than that. Lets see.