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Locked: Global Hardware 29 December 2018

Forums - Latest Charts - Global Hardware 29 December 2018

Alcyon said:
zorg1000 said:

Here is another way to look at things.

2017

UK-680k

France-910k

Spain-300k

Portugal-20k

Combined-1910k

In Nintendo's Q3 FY presentation last year, they had a graph showing Switch had sold ~3.5 million in Europe as of January 20, 2018 so 3.3-3.4 million at the end of 2017 sounds about right.

That means those 4 countries made up roughly ~57 % of Europe sales. Now let's look at this years numbers.

2018

UK-820k

France-1130k

Spain-390k

Portugal-50k

Combined-2390k

Assuming those 4 countries still make up ~57% of Europe sales than it would have sold ~4.2 million in 2018 for a grand total of 7.5-7.6 million LTD for Europe so that would be about ~500k overtracked.

 

Then take the PS4 at his launch and you'd find that the PS4 was overtracked during the second year. We are back to square one. The numbers

 

In 2013 the PS4 sold 1682K in Europe.

UK (565K)+FR (260K)+ GE (278K) = 1103K (579K for the rest) or ~66% of european's sales.

 

So these 3 combined makes for ~66% of Europe's sales.

 

In 2014 the PS4 sold 6053K in Europe.

UK (1261K)+ FR (845K) + GE (1065K) = 3171K (2882K for the rest) or ~52% of european's sales.

If those 3 combined made for ~66% of Europe's sales, the "rest" would have been around 1586K. So was the PS4 overtracked for almost 1.3M units. ?

Or, perhaps, I say perhaps, new systems don't sell well outside the big western european markets. Then perhaps, I say perhaps, these markets start to grow when the console is a sucess. And for the biggest sucesses, they made up for more than half of the european sales.

But let's have a complete chart.

 

2013 : UK (565K)+FR (260K)+ GE (278K) = 1103K (579K for the rest) or ~66% of european's sales.

2014 : UK (1261K)+ GE (1065K) + FR (845K) = 3171K (2882K for the rest) or ~52% of european's sales.

2015 : UK (1148K) + GE (1371K) + FR (1026K) = 3545K out of 6859K (3314K for the rest) or ~52% of the sales.

2016 : UK (942K) + GE(1203K) + FR (973K) = 3118K out of 6795K (3677K for the rest) or ~46% of the sales.

 

If those 3 combined made of ~52% of the sale, the rest would have been around 3272K. 400K overtracked ?

 

2017 : UK (1213K) + DE (1312K) +FR (1020K) = 3545K out of 8094K (4549K for the rest) or ~44% of the sales.

2018 : UK (1100K) + GE (1163K) + FR (959K) = 3222K out of 7469K (4247K for the rest) or ~43% of the sales.

 

Now the Switch

2017 : UK (737K) + GE (567K) + FR (911K) = 2215K out of 3404K (1189K for the rest) or ~65% of the sales. Similar to the PS4 in 2013.

2018 : UK (821K) + GE(691K) + FR (1131K) = 2643K out of 4742K (2099K for the rest) or ~56% of the sales. Similar to the PS4 in 2014.

 

Why would you expect the same shares every year ?

 

@KingofTrolls : I know, but is Russia tracked in "Europe" for VGC ?

Nobody is saying that it is overtracked, just that it could be.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Bofferbrauer2 said:
colafitte said:

Oh thanks for that 2017 number. I was searching everywhere but i couldn't find it. So another big market in Europe in the 20-30% growth YOY then.

You could just have looked in the comments. By that however, 2017 Switch numbers were 340K as the total is apparently 730K

340K in 2017 instead of 300k? Thank you for the info. So a 15% growth instead of 30%...

By the way, i want to point out, that i was asking for a country with a 100% growth YOY and we already had one in Portugal. If 50k in 2018 (because 50k was just 2018 and not lifetime sales right?) and 20k from 2017 are official confirmed numbers then there is a 150% growth. So if the rest of countries in Europe are on par with this my theory will be wrong.

I'm not afraid of being wrong, i will be the first to admit if that happens, but we need way more than just Portugal to convince me.



colafitte said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

You could just have looked in the comments. By that however, 2017 Switch numbers were 340K as the total is apparently 730K

340K in 2017 instead of 300k? Thank you for the info. So a 15% growth instead of 30%...

By the way, i want to point out, that i was asking for a country with a 100% growth YOY and we already had one in Portugal. If 50k in 2018 (because 50k was just 2018 and not lifetime sales right?) and 20k from 2017 are official confirmed numbers then there is a 150% growth. So if the rest of countries in Europe are on par with this my theory will be wrong.

I'm not afraid of being wrong, i will be the first to admit if that happens, but we need way more than just Portugal to convince me.

Apparently, the 340K is wrong and with it, the 730K figure as the 300K we have was apparently correct. Here from the other thread:

Mbolibombo said: 
Bofferbrauer2 said: 

My own calculation, since if 730K total and 390K this year are both correct, then 730K -390K=340K

Yeah I'm not questioning your math skills, they are correct ;) Spain LTD is 690k which is why I'm questioning why the original poster says that it's 730K LTD when what we know it's 300k for 2017. Not 340k.


So yeah, the increase is actually from 300K to 390K and I was wrong. Maybe those 340K included the first 3 weeks of January, who knows



Bofferbrauer2 said:
colafitte said:

340K in 2017 instead of 300k? Thank you for the info. So a 15% growth instead of 30%...

By the way, i want to point out, that i was asking for a country with a 100% growth YOY and we already had one in Portugal. If 50k in 2018 (because 50k was just 2018 and not lifetime sales right?) and 20k from 2017 are official confirmed numbers then there is a 150% growth. So if the rest of countries in Europe are on par with this my theory will be wrong.

I'm not afraid of being wrong, i will be the first to admit if that happens, but we need way more than just Portugal to convince me.

Apparently, the 340K is wrong and with it, the 730K figure as the 300K we have was apparently correct. Here from the other thread:

Mbolibombo said: 

Yeah I'm not questioning your math skills, they are correct ;) Spain LTD is 690k which is why I'm questioning why the original poster says that it's 730K LTD when what we know it's 300k for 2017. Not 340k.


So yeah, the increase is actually from 300K to 390K and I was wrong. Maybe those 340K included the first 3 weeks of January, who knows

Back to 30% growth again then...



zorg1000 said:
Alcyon said:

 

Then take the PS4 at his launch and you'd find that the PS4 was overtracked during the second year. We are back to square one. The numbers

 

In 2013 the PS4 sold 1682K in Europe.

UK (565K)+FR (260K)+ GE (278K) = 1103K (579K for the rest) or ~66% of european's sales.

 

So these 3 combined makes for ~66% of Europe's sales.

 

In 2014 the PS4 sold 6053K in Europe.

UK (1261K)+ FR (845K) + GE (1065K) = 3171K (2882K for the rest) or ~52% of european's sales.

If those 3 combined made for ~66% of Europe's sales, the "rest" would have been around 1586K. So was the PS4 overtracked for almost 1.3M units. ?

Or, perhaps, I say perhaps, new systems don't sell well outside the big western european markets. Then perhaps, I say perhaps, these markets start to grow when the console is a sucess. And for the biggest sucesses, they made up for more than half of the european sales.

But let's have a complete chart.

 

2013 : UK (565K)+FR (260K)+ GE (278K) = 1103K (579K for the rest) or ~66% of european's sales.

2014 : UK (1261K)+ GE (1065K) + FR (845K) = 3171K (2882K for the rest) or ~52% of european's sales.

2015 : UK (1148K) + GE (1371K) + FR (1026K) = 3545K out of 6859K (3314K for the rest) or ~52% of the sales.

2016 : UK (942K) + GE(1203K) + FR (973K) = 3118K out of 6795K (3677K for the rest) or ~46% of the sales.

 

If those 3 combined made of ~52% of the sale, the rest would have been around 3272K. 400K overtracked ?

 

2017 : UK (1213K) + DE (1312K) +FR (1020K) = 3545K out of 8094K (4549K for the rest) or ~44% of the sales.

2018 : UK (1100K) + GE (1163K) + FR (959K) = 3222K out of 7469K (4247K for the rest) or ~43% of the sales.

 

Now the Switch

2017 : UK (737K) + GE (567K) + FR (911K) = 2215K out of 3404K (1189K for the rest) or ~65% of the sales. Similar to the PS4 in 2013.

2018 : UK (821K) + GE(691K) + FR (1131K) = 2643K out of 4742K (2099K for the rest) or ~56% of the sales. Similar to the PS4 in 2014.

 

Why would you expect the same shares every year ?

 

@KingofTrolls : I know, but is Russia tracked in "Europe" for VGC ?

Nobody is saying that it is overtracked, just that it could be.

 

One message should be enough. Check it, he's posting the same message over and over for the last 2 weeks.



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Nov + Dec numbers
Nintendo has more releases in Dec while PS has more in Nov.


Nov + Dec 2017

PS4 - 3,619 + 3,987 = 7,606
NSW - 1,658 + 4,348 = 6,006


Nov + Dec 2018

PS4 - 3,847 + 2,788 = 6,635
NSW - 3,305 + 5,081 = 8,386


Source: VGC Hardware Year-Over-Year Comparison



My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?


Another solid win for Switch while we wait to see how will the first weeks of 2019 go, will Switch slow down and PS4 keep ahead or will we have a year with Switch being ahead most of time?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

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DonFerrari said:
Another solid win for Switch while we wait to see how will the first weeks of 2019 go, will Switch slow down and PS4 keep ahead or will we have a year with Switch being ahead most of time?

We have the first three weeks already 



Switch still seems over tracked- Nintendo themselves said they crossed 30 million at the end of January- not at the beginning.



Zombie9ers said:
Switch still seems over tracked- Nintendo themselves said they crossed 30 million at the end of January- not at the beginning.

They didnt say it crossed 30m in late Jan, they said as of late Jan it was over 30m. Those statements might sound the same but they are different.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.