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Kingdom Hearts 3 FW sales prediction

Forums - Sales Discussion - Kingdom Hearts 3 FW sales prediction

LGBTDBZBBQ said:
Nautilus said:
Gonna do 4 millions FW worldwide, for sure.This is the most hyped KH ever, in my opinion.Not only that, but the popular disney worlds there will help it sell outside the fanbase.


Honestly, this game will sell at least 10 millions LT.

FFXV 24-hour shipments+Digital = 5m.

Current LTD = 8.4m(PC/PS4/XB1).

I don't think 10m is realistic for a single player JRPG if FFXV is struggling to reach that sales number. This isn't the same as MHW situation where the potential of sales was held back by the hardware and region, multiplayer focused games tend to do better in the west. 

KH3 isn't going to outsell FFXV and nowhere near MHW numbers. 

I never understood this FF XV comparison.Why FF XV selling 8.4 million will stop KH III from doing better than it?Because its a better known franchise?That argument is bad for several reasons:

First, FF has fallen from grace.That is a known fact.The last masterpiece to ever grace FF was FF X, and ever since then, the franchise has been losing steam, at least in terms of how it is perceived by the public.FF XV might be the third best selling entry(?), but thats after three different versions hit the store shelves.(The vanilla one, Pocket Edition, and the Royal Edition)The only reason FF XV is "struggling" to reach that number(8.4 is an excellent number, even if thats I dont like that) is because the game is not good.

Second: Many single player games have been performing incredibly in the 8th and 9th gen(Switch is 9th gen).Persona 5, Nier Automata, MH World, Xenoblade Chronicles 2, Dragon Quest XI and many more have been doing far better than what their franchises usually do.Not only that, but KH is arguably better known than most RPGs(Japanese or not), so it has a bigger chance of success either way.

Third: KH 1 and 2, if Im not mistaken, have sold a bit more than 6 million each.The collections did about 2 millions each.Assuming that KH III will do 10 millions lifetime, after years of being on the market, dosent seem far fetched to me.

Fourth: As I said, quality is very important nowadays, on an age where information is far more easily acessible than it was 15 years ago.This makes word of mouth far stronger and important for a game to sell itself.FF has been in decline for years now(and FF XV didnt change that), but KH has maintained its pedigree for the most part.If KH III is very well received (Metacritic of 85+), then there is no reason to expect that it will do less than FF XV, at least not for the reasons you presented.

Fifth: KH has the Disney appeal to help sell it.Not only that, but it has popular Disney IPs on it(Frozen and Toy Story just to name a few) that might make it a better sell than FF nowadays.

 

And those are just a few reasons that KH MIGHT beat FF XV sales and reach 10 millions.For years now, KH has been one of the three Square flagship franchises (FF, KH and DQ).People need to stop getting so hang up on past data and franchise pedigrees and start looking more on the circunstances around the game and the current market trends.Just to give a quick example: MH World wasnt being held back solely because of the hardware it was in.MH was once in the PS2 after all, and the PS2 sold 150 million units by the end of its life.MH World sold like it did because of two simple reasons:It was a multiplatform game, AND it was an excellent game, much better(both in quality and innovation) than its predecessors.Simple as that.

 

If KH III ends up being as good as I think it will, ohhhh boy.... The only thing that might hold it back selling more than it will is the story, since you need to have played 6 and a half games to understand it(Im not counting Coded and Chi in kind of a half game, being a mobile game and all).



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i would say 4 millions in the first week, will be interesting how it will do the weeks after



Sorry KH fans. KH is one of my favorite franchises, but it's been too long since the last mainline game. Hype has definitely died down for the series as a whole. The last game got just over 4 million lifetime. This one will get even less than that. It's releasing 13 years later after many have lost interest after several confusing spinoffs that make it impossible to follow the story unless you're a diehard fan. And there are a lot of diehard KH fans, but not more than there were 13 years ago. It'll probably sell half its lifetime sales or more in the first week, so being generous...

WW: 2 million shipped+digital
NA: 1 million shipped+digital
EU: 300k shipped+digital
Japan: 600k shipped+digital
RoW: 100k shipped+digital



HylianSwordsman said:
Sorry KH fans. KH is one of my favorite franchises, but it's been too long since the last mainline game. Hype has definitely died down for the series as a whole. The last game got just over 4 million lifetime. This one will get even less than that. It's releasing 13 years later after many have lost interest after several confusing spinoffs that make it impossible to follow the story unless you're a diehard fan. And there are a lot of diehard KH fans, but not more than there were 13 years ago. It'll probably sell half its lifetime sales or more in the first week, so being generous...

WW: 2 million shipped+digital
NA: 1 million shipped+digital
EU: 300k shipped+digital
Japan: 600k shipped+digital
RoW: 100k shipped+digital

Have you not been watching it's preorders? It's tracking ahead of Resident Evil 2 Remake in almost every market based on the various country specific Amazon Online charts, even though Resident Evil 2 Remake launches 4 days earlier, and is currently #1 or #2 on multiple Amazon charts despite releasing in 9 days. So it looks like it's western performance will be very strong.

Game Data Library, a site dedicated to tracking Japanese game sales, just predicted over 600k first week physical for KH3 in Japan, which is just 100k behind KH2, though digital is a thing now, digital didn't exist when KH2 released. That prediction is nearly in line with FFXV first week physical sales in Japan, which went on to sell 1m physical lifetime in Japan. They also predicted that KH3 will more than double Res 2 Remake first week sales in Japan, and that is in spite of their prediction that Res 2 Remake will outsell Res 7 first week in Japan. 

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 20 January 2019

HylianSwordsman said:
Sorry KH fans. KH is one of my favorite franchises, but it's been too long since the last mainline game. Hype has definitely died down for the series as a whole. The last game got just over 4 million lifetime. This one will get even less than that.

This is basically impossible when you account for how much software sales of every nearly every major video game franchise have grown. 



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I'd be happy to be wrong. Shocked, but happy.



You guys are idiots. Kingdom hearts is a massive game and will sell massive numbers. And you folks are forgetting the Disney appeal. Disney as a brand is as strong as they have ever been in their history and arguably have reached their peak. KH3 appeal covers from kids to adults who have been waiting over a decade for this game, so the market potential for KH3 is huuuge.

5 million+ FW sales fellers

User was warned for this Post. ~ Pemalite.

Last edited by Pemalite - on 20 January 2019

It will sell more than it deserves.



HylianSwordsman said:
Hype has definitely died down for the series as a whole. The last game got just over 4 million lifetime. This one will get even less than that.
ARamdomGamer said:
It will sell more than it deserves.

This is Monster Hunter World all over again.



Replicant said:
HylianSwordsman said:
Hype has definitely died down for the series as a whole. The last game got just over 4 million lifetime. This one will get even less than that.
ARamdomGamer said:
It will sell more than it deserves.

This is Monster Hunter World all over again.

I highly doubt it will be a repeat of MHW. I'd love to be proved wrong there, as it's one of my favorite series, and a MHW style reaction would be amazing. Random people at work that never played a Japanese game in their life were talking about MHW when it came out. It was crazy. KH3 won't get that treatment, as much as I'd love that. I haven't heard a single soul outside this forum mention KH3. Not even from my friends I used to nerd out talking about KH and exchange fan theories with and shit. It's just not getting talked about. No one seems to care anymore. It's honestly a bit depressing.