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Switch vs PS4 2019

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Which console will sell more and by how much?

Switch by 20 million plus 9 6.92%
 
Switch by 15-20 million 1 0.77%
 
Switch by 10-15 million 10 7.69%
 
Switch by 5-10 million 44 33.85%
 
Switch by under 5 million 44 33.85%
 
PS4 by under 5 million 14 10.77%
 
PS4 by 5-10 million 2 1.54%
 
PS4 by 10-15 million 1 0.77%
 
PS4 by 15-20 million 1 0.77%
 
PS4 by 20 million plus 4 3.08%
 
Total:130

This is another update to the thread and shows sales data until June 29th, one day short of the end of Q2 2019. Once again the PS4 is holding it's own and looks set to defy the popular opinion in the OP poll that the Switch would easily dominate it in 2019.
In 2019 to date -
Nintendo Switch - 6.1 million
Playstation 4 - 5.3 million

This means that the Switch has 53.51% of the 2019 head to head market with the PS4 tracking at 46.49%. I think most will agree that Nintendo has some seriously heavy hitting software to come in the second half of this year but will it be enough to achieve the domination that many expected? Will the Lite be the SKU that gives the Switch the edge going into the 2019 holiday season?

I'd like to hear any thoughts on this and I'll update the thread at the end of September to see if Q3 changed the situation in favour of either console.



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Trumpstyle said:


Nintendo has no cards left except a switch handheld only for 200$ and that won't release this year. I suspect 2018 was peak year for switch and for 2019 it will sell 14 million units.

Well, this post hasn't aged well... (Though to be fair it was pretty terrible to begin with)



tripenfall said:
This is another update to the thread and shows sales data until June 29th, one day short of the end of Q2 2019. Once again the PS4 is holding it's own and looks set to defy the popular opinion in the OP poll that the Switch would easily dominate it in 2019.
In 2019 to date -
Nintendo Switch - 6.1 million
Playstation 4 - 5.3 million

This means that the Switch has 53.51% of the 2019 head to head market with the PS4 tracking at 46.49%. I think most will agree that Nintendo has some seriously heavy hitting software to come in the second half of this year but will it be enough to achieve the domination that many expected? Will the Lite be the SKU that gives the Switch the edge going into the 2019 holiday season?

I'd like to hear any thoughts on this and I'll update the thread at the end of September to see if Q3 changed the situation in favour of either console.

Uh... it really doesn't look that way. Switch is up YoY by 23.9%, while PS4 is down YoY by 24.7%. If those YoY changes hold for the rest of the year, Switch will be at 20.2 million and PS4 will be at 13.6 million.

Last year, PS4 sold 2.12 million more units than Switch did in the first half, but Switch actually sold 0.45 million more in the second half. If Switch is already ahead in the first half of 2019, it's going to be ahead by an even greater margin in the second half because its sales are more concentrated in the holidays than PS4's. 70% of Switch's 2018 sales were in the second half, versus only 61% of PS4's 2018 sales.



StarDoor said:
tripenfall said:
This is another update to the thread and shows sales data until June 29th, one day short of the end of Q2 2019. Once again the PS4 is holding it's own and looks set to defy the popular opinion in the OP poll that the Switch would easily dominate it in 2019.
In 2019 to date -
Nintendo Switch - 6.1 million
Playstation 4 - 5.3 million

This means that the Switch has 53.51% of the 2019 head to head market with the PS4 tracking at 46.49%. I think most will agree that Nintendo has some seriously heavy hitting software to come in the second half of this year but will it be enough to achieve the domination that many expected? Will the Lite be the SKU that gives the Switch the edge going into the 2019 holiday season?

I'd like to hear any thoughts on this and I'll update the thread at the end of September to see if Q3 changed the situation in favour of either console.

Uh... it really doesn't look that way. Switch is up YoY by 23.9%, while PS4 is down YoY by 24.7%. If those YoY changes hold for the rest of the year, Switch will be at 20.2 million and PS4 will be at 13.6 million.

Last year, PS4 sold 2.12 million more units than Switch did in the first half, but Switch actually sold 0.45 million more in the second half. If Switch is already ahead in the first half of 2019, it's going to be ahead by an even greater margin in the second half because its sales are more concentrated in the holidays than PS4's. 70% of Switch's 2018 sales were in the second half, versus only 61% of PS4's 2018 sales.

This. Never mind the Switch Lite.

Edit: also, hi StarDoor! It's been a while



mZuzek said:
StarDoor said:

Uh... it really doesn't look that way. Switch is up YoY by 23.9%, while PS4 is down YoY by 24.7%. If those YoY changes hold for the rest of the year, Switch will be at 20.2 million and PS4 will be at 13.6 million.

Last year, PS4 sold 2.12 million more units than Switch did in the first half, but Switch actually sold 0.45 million more in the second half. If Switch is already ahead in the first half of 2019, it's going to be ahead by an even greater margin in the second half because its sales are more concentrated in the holidays than PS4's. 70% of Switch's 2018 sales were in the second half, versus only 61% of PS4's 2018 sales.

This. Never mind the Switch Lite.

Edit: also, hi StarDoor! It's been a while

Oh yeah, definitely. Even before the Lite's announcement, the signs were pointing to a Switch blowout. A new model just seals the deal.

And hi to you too, mZuzek! I've been busy for a few months, but I haven't forgotten about you guys.



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StarDoor said:
mZuzek said:

also, hi StarDoor! It's been a while

And hi to you too, mZuzek! I've been busy for a few months, but I haven't forgotten about you guys.

Will you be around by the end of the year?



mZuzek said:
StarDoor said:

And hi to you too, mZuzek! I've been busy for a few months, but I haven't forgotten about you guys.

Will you be around by the end of the year?

What, are you already advertising for this year's Greatest Games thread?

Also, yes.



StarDoor said:
mZuzek said:

Will you be around by the end of the year?

What, are you already advertising for this year's Greatest Games thread?

Not really, but, good idea.



zorg1000 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
I think Switch can sell about 25m in 2019, assuming they are able to manufacture and ship that much. Not sure how many the PS4 will sell though. I think Switch will be above PS4 by at least 10m though. So Switch by 10-15m.

That's ridiculous

I still stand by my prediction.  

As StarDoor said, if current trends continue Switch will be 20.2m and PS4 will be 13.6m.  That puts up Switch by 6.6m.  Now when you factor in both Switch's upcoming software schedule and the new hardware model, I think being 10m+ ahead is pretty reasonable.

I am still very confident in my 25m prediction for Switch.  The only thing that can kill my "10-15m ahead" prediction is if Sony issues a major permanent price cut.  Still no word if they are going to do this or not.



It's time to revisit this post.
VG Chartz is currently showing platform totals until September 28th 2019, which is 2 days shy of the end of the 3rd quarter of the calendar year. The results this far are interesting. The Switch has current 2019 sales of 9.3 million units to the 8.7 million of the PS4. In a head to head battle the Switch owns 51.66% of the 2019 sales putting the PS4 at 48.33%. The PS4 has actually made ground since the end of the 2nd quarter in this regard (see above post) and it blows my mind that a console that has sold over 100 million units and is 6 years into it's lifespan can sell so well. It really is a beast.
Most people (myself included) agree that the 4th quarter will be where the Switch really shines but if you look at the poll in the OP most people had the Switch winning this battle by millions... Can the 4th quarter sales of the Switch really be that strong? I think that if Nintendo have any chance of the Switch one day reaching numbers like the Wii this 4th quarter will have to be epic. Sony has a shiny new console looming and Nintendo needs to cash in now. The Switch Lite should help this happen but time will tell. The elephant in the room is also how mediocre the Switch sells in Europe. 10 million sales in the whole of Europe is below par and the Switch needs to vastly improve in this region if the console has any hope of outselling the PS3 LTD. 
Thoughts?