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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 22 December 2018

Spindel said:
colafitte said:
Those european numbers for Switch are really weird though. I still think VGC is overtracking big time Switch in Europe.

We had, with a week left, 15% growth YOY in France (we know it has to be 24% in the end), 10% growth YOY in UK (we know it has to be 20% in the end) and VGC is showing a 17% growth YOY in Germany already (we don't know official data yet here) but VGC is showing a whooping 34% growth YOY in all Europe with that week left of the year. Is that even possible when the 3 biggest markets....by far, are around 10-15%, and all Europe around 34%???. So what then? in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Sweden, Netherlands, .... is a 50-60% growth YOY? It has to be if in Europe is so big the growth...

According to VGC Switch sold 3'4M in Europe in 2017 and it seems is on pace to 4'8M in 2018. That would be a 41% growth YOY in Europe. Knowing UK and France numbers already i find it very difficult to be true.

On the other side, if my maths are correct, Switch is going to be around 1'2M (365k+392k+ around 440k = 1'2M) in USA in December with a week left according to VGC, so maybe finishing the year around 1'4-1'5M. That seems too low.

As for the rest of the world (not USA+EU+JP markets), Switch did 1'6M in 2017 and is alrady around 2'9M in 2018 with a week left. That's a 81% growth YOY (even with a week left).

My guess: USA is going to be undertracked around 500k at least (probably more), EU is going to be overtracked by around 500-600k (at least, too), and ROTW i really don't know anything here how it works, but a 85-90% growth YOY is reaaaaally a lot, so i won't be surprised if it's overtracked too.

For PS4 numbers....well, it seems it only needs around 500-600K in the last week (and maybe some tweaking in VGC numbers) to be on par with official numbers.

I'm not saying that you are wrong, but you can't disregard eastern europe.

 

If who I get paired with in online matches in MK8D, Spaltoon 2 and SSBU, is a sign of anything it seems that Swtich is really popular in Poland (population 38 million) and Russia (population 145 million (and most of them living west of Ural)). Of course Russia is on average poorer than western europe, but they are not that poor, Poland is close to western europe tho.

I am a french living in Hungary so I think my position is fair to talk :

Eastern Europe is having a GDP increase of about 4% or more these last few years. Their average salary almost doubled between 2010 and 2019. I am the one who has the shitty smartphone at 100€ where my hungarian colleagues all have much more expensive phones. Buying a console at 250 or 350 is not a big problem today in Eastern Europe. Ofcourse, even if the West is in an economical stagnation, they remain much richer and capable of buying. I think a strong marketing dedication could produce significant sales numbers in the future for East.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
colafitte said:

It's not "very much" possible at all.

UK, France are not Sonyland by any means. Germany, Spain, Italy are far better examples of that. We don't know Germany numbers either but Germany has been always, alongside Spain, the best market for PS4 (marketshare i mean). So i seriously doubt Switch suddenly is going to grow more there than in UK or France.

And by the, way, i think you did not understand correctly what i meant with EU numbers. If UK, FR and GE are 20-25% growth, and they're basically 65-70% of the market sales in Europe, that means that if Europe as a whole is a 35%, the 30-35% of the rest of Europe must be a lot more than a 35% growth, and there is no info in Spain or Italy (next 2 bigger markets in Europe) saying something like this either, so Netherlands, Portugal, Austria, Sweden, .... is practically impossible that they make the difference.

I think you didn't understand me correctly. I was saying that it's not the big 3 that make Sonyland, but all the smaller countries taken together. My first sentence was probably too ambiguous for that to be clear. 

@bolded: That's where you are dead wrong. they barely even represent half of Europe anymore, safe for Xbox (almost 1.2M out of 1.7M total this year by VGC numbers). For Sony, they are 3.1M out of 7.2M total sold this year, while for the Switch it's 2.5M out of 4.5M. Hence why I said Switch is growing there in the smaller European countries while the PS4 had the bulk of their losses there when compared to last year sales, there's much more growth there than most people realize.

1. Oh, that makes more sense that way...XD

2. You're proving my point. UK+FR+GE in 2017 did 2'2M from 3'4M Europe did as a whole. That's a 65% (that 65-70% was an aproximation because i did not looked for the exact number). So rest of Europe (not UK, FR and GE in this case) did 1'2M in 2017. When you say to me that, according to VGC numbers, in 2018 UK+FR+GE did 2'5M and Europe as whole did 4'5M until now, that means rest of Europe did 2'0M in 2018. That's a 66'7% growth YOY compared to last year with a week left, compared to just a 13% growth for UK+FR+GE in the same period. Considering there is no news in Spain or Italy (the next 2 biggest markets in Europe) saying Switch did much much better than UK of France, we should expect the same growth happened in those countries. So if we count the big 5 (UK, FR, GE, SP and IT) that represent probably 75-80% of European sales. If all of these countries are in the same % of growth, it makes basically impossible the difference in grotwh made by the rest of Europe.



Spindel said:
colafitte said:
Those european numbers for Switch are really weird though. I still think VGC is overtracking big time Switch in Europe.

We had, with a week left, 15% growth YOY in France (we know it has to be 24% in the end), 10% growth YOY in UK (we know it has to be 20% in the end) and VGC is showing a 17% growth YOY in Germany already (we don't know official data yet here) but VGC is showing a whooping 34% growth YOY in all Europe with that week left of the year. Is that even possible when the 3 biggest markets....by far, are around 10-15%, and all Europe around 34%???. So what then? in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Sweden, Netherlands, .... is a 50-60% growth YOY? It has to be if in Europe is so big the growth...

According to VGC Switch sold 3'4M in Europe in 2017 and it seems is on pace to 4'8M in 2018. That would be a 41% growth YOY in Europe. Knowing UK and France numbers already i find it very difficult to be true.

On the other side, if my maths are correct, Switch is going to be around 1'2M (365k+392k+ around 440k = 1'2M) in USA in December with a week left according to VGC, so maybe finishing the year around 1'4-1'5M. That seems too low.

As for the rest of the world (not USA+EU+JP markets), Switch did 1'6M in 2017 and is alrady around 2'9M in 2018 with a week left. That's a 81% growth YOY (even with a week left).

My guess: USA is going to be undertracked around 500k at least (probably more), EU is going to be overtracked by around 500-600k (at least, too), and ROTW i really don't know anything here how it works, but a 85-90% growth YOY is reaaaaally a lot, so i won't be surprised if it's overtracked too.

For PS4 numbers....well, it seems it only needs around 500-600K in the last week (and maybe some tweaking in VGC numbers) to be on par with official numbers.

I'm not saying that you are wrong, but you can't disregard eastern europe.

 

If who I get paired with in online matches in MK8D, Spaltoon 2 and SSBU, is a sign of anything it seems that Swtich is really popular in Poland (population 38 million) and Russia (population 145 million (and most of them living west of Ural)). Of course Russia is on average poorer than western europe, but they are not that poor, Poland is close to western europe tho.

I'm not disregarding eastern europe for the sake of it and i don't want to disminish eastern european countries, but it's a historical data fact that the bulk of european sales come from western european markets, like in America's case they come from North America to be precise despite South America having a huge number of people. It's not about the amount of people, but the way they consume it. In fact, Spain despite being around 15M less than Italy (and less PIB per capita by the way), consume more hardware and software sales than Italy for example.



Another strong week for Switch, but doesn't seem like VGC will record any 2M week.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Damn Switch, awesome numbers



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ironmanDX said:
kirby007 said:
Next week is gonna be a drop tho

By drop, do you mean like.... Off a cliff?

 

I'm gonna stop you right there. Yes, quickrick said Switch sales will fall of a cliff BUUUUT he then said they will be flat. And we can see that they're actually flat, even it will probably ending up selling 4 million more than last year.



colafitte said:

So what then? in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Sweden, Netherlands, .... is a 50-60% growth YOY? It has to be if in Europe is so big the growth...

Just read on Era that Switch is now over 50k sold in Portugal, up from 20k at the end of 2017 so a ~50% YoY increase. So maybe these smaller countries did have bigger growth.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

colafitte said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I think you didn't understand me correctly. I was saying that it's not the big 3 that make Sonyland, but all the smaller countries taken together. My first sentence was probably too ambiguous for that to be clear. 

@bolded: That's where you are dead wrong. they barely even represent half of Europe anymore, safe for Xbox (almost 1.2M out of 1.7M total this year by VGC numbers). For Sony, they are 3.1M out of 7.2M total sold this year, while for the Switch it's 2.5M out of 4.5M. Hence why I said Switch is growing there in the smaller European countries while the PS4 had the bulk of their losses there when compared to last year sales, there's much more growth there than most people realize.

1. Oh, that makes more sense that way...XD

2. You're proving my point. UK+FR+GE in 2017 did 2'2M from 3'4M Europe did as a whole. That's a 65% (that 65-70% was an aproximation because i did not looked for the exact number). So rest of Europe (not UK, FR and GE in this case) did 1'2M in 2017. When you say to me that, according to VGC numbers, in 2018 UK+FR+GE did 2'5M and Europe as whole did 4'5M until now, that means rest of Europe did 2'0M in 2018. That's a 66'7% growth YOY compared to last year with a week left, compared to just a 13% growth for UK+FR+GE in the same period. Considering there is no news in Spain or Italy (the next 2 biggest markets in Europe) saying Switch did much much better than UK of France, we should expect the same growth happened in those countries. So if we count the big 5 (UK, FR, GE, SP and IT) that represent probably 75-80% of European sales. If all of these countries are in the same % of growth, it makes basically impossible the difference in grotwh made by the rest of Europe.

I didn't hear much from those 2 countries yet myself. However, look a bit farther up north, to the Benelux for instance. Here I could see much growth (and with see I mean especially larger Nintendo sections in stores than they had during Wii U or even Wii days and also more front-and-center than in the past. I also heard that the Switch is apparently growing fast in some eastern Europe countries, though not sure how big their impact would be.

In other words, even if Italy and Spain stay stubbornly staunch Sony States, their percentage of the total European sales, just like the one of the big 3, is waning. I hope Nintendo will come with an Europe/EU/Eurozone region in the near future to make it more clear what sells where.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
colafitte said:

1. Oh, that makes more sense that way...XD

2. You're proving my point. UK+FR+GE in 2017 did 2'2M from 3'4M Europe did as a whole. That's a 65% (that 65-70% was an aproximation because i did not looked for the exact number). So rest of Europe (not UK, FR and GE in this case) did 1'2M in 2017. When you say to me that, according to VGC numbers, in 2018 UK+FR+GE did 2'5M and Europe as whole did 4'5M until now, that means rest of Europe did 2'0M in 2018. That's a 66'7% growth YOY compared to last year with a week left, compared to just a 13% growth for UK+FR+GE in the same period. Considering there is no news in Spain or Italy (the next 2 biggest markets in Europe) saying Switch did much much better than UK of France, we should expect the same growth happened in those countries. So if we count the big 5 (UK, FR, GE, SP and IT) that represent probably 75-80% of European sales. If all of these countries are in the same % of growth, it makes basically impossible the difference in grotwh made by the rest of Europe.

I didn't hear much from those 2 countries yet myself. However, look a bit farther up north, to the Benelux for instance. Here I could see much growth (and with see I mean especially larger Nintendo sections in stores than they had during Wii U or even Wii days and also more front-and-center than in the past. I also heard that the Switch is apparently growing fast in some eastern Europe countries, though not sure how big their impact would be.

In other words, even if Italy and Spain stay stubbornly staunch Sony States, their percentage of the total European sales, just like the one of the big 3, is waning. I hope Nintendo will come with an Europe/EU/Eurozone region in the near future to make it more clear what sells where.

I can believe those countries growth is bigger %s than in UK, but 65-70% more than in the previous year as needed??? I have no data so i can't proof anything, but i'm just saying that % is big, very big.



zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

So what then? in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Sweden, Netherlands, .... is a 50-60% growth YOY? It has to be if in Europe is so big the growth...

Just read on Era that Switch is now over 50k sold in Portugal, up from 20k at the end of 2017 so a ~50% YoY increase. So maybe these smaller countries did have bigger growth.

Now we need every country in Europe not named UK, FR or GE doing the same or even better (by VGC calculations they have to do as a whole more than 65% more, at least, than last year to match VGC numbers). The question is... is that possible?