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Global Hardware 22 December 2018

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AlbiNecroxz said:
colafitte said:
Those european numbers for Switch are really weird though. I still think VGC is overtracking big time Switch in Europe.

We had, with a week left, 15% growth YOY in France (we know it has to be 24% in the end), 10% growth YOY in UK (we know it has to be 20% in the end) and VGC is showing a 17% growth YOY in Germany already (we don't know official data yet here) but VGC is showing a whooping 34% growth YOY in all Europe with that week left of the year. Is that even possible when the 3 biggest markets....by far, are around 10-15%, and all Europe around 34%???. So what then? in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Sweden, Netherlands, .... is a 50-60% growth YOY? It has to be if in Europe is so big the growth...

According to VGC Switch sold 3'4M in Europe in 2017 and it seems is on pace to 4'8M in 2018. That would be a 41% growth YOY in Europe. Knowing UK and France numbers already i find it very difficult to be true.

On the other side, if my maths are correct, Switch is going to be around 1'2M (365k+392k+ around 440k = 1'2M) in USA in December with a week left according to VGC, so maybe finishing the year around 1'4-1'5M. That seems too low.

As for the rest of the world (not USA+EU+JP markets), Switch did 1'6M in 2017 and is alrady around 2'9M in 2018 with a week left. That's a 81% growth YOY (even with a week left).

My guess: USA is going to be undertracked around 500k at least (probably more), EU is going to be overtracked by around 500-600k (at least, too), and ROTW i really don't know anything here how it works, but a 85-90% growth YOY is reaaaaally a lot, so i won't be surprised if it's overtracked too.

For PS4 numbers....well, it seems it only needs around 500-600K in the last week (and maybe some tweaking in VGC numbers) to be on par with official numbers.

I think you're right about US market, 1.2m is too law if Benji is correct. Europe it's overtracked but I think 500k overtracking units is too much, maybe 300k is a right guess. RotW who knows. Btw I think 1.6/1.7m WW is probably the best guess after all

If you think EU is only 300k overtracked that would still be around 4'5M and a 32% growth YOY. With its two biggest markets around 20-24% growth, and Germany seemingly in the same pace, that growth for Europe in total is still too much.



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colafitte said:
AlbiNecroxz said:

I think you're right about US market, 1.2m is too law if Benji is correct. Europe it's overtracked but I think 500k overtracking units is too much, maybe 300k is a right guess. RotW who knows. Btw I think 1.6/1.7m WW is probably the best guess after all

If you think EU is only 300k overtracked that would still be around 4'5M and a 32% growth YOY. With its two biggest markets around 20-24% growth, and Germany seemingly in the same pace, that growth for Europe in total is still too much.

Surely that growth didn't happened here in Italy lol. It's one of the best market for Sony as much as Spain. I think that a 20% growth here is reasonable or maybe more, who knows. We'll know the truth only on 31st of January ;)



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colafitte said:
Those european numbers for Switch are really weird though. I still think VGC is overtracking big time Switch in Europe.

We had, with a week left, 15% growth YOY in France (we know it has to be 24% in the end), 10% growth YOY in UK (we know it has to be 20% in the end) and VGC is showing a 17% growth YOY in Germany already (we don't know official data yet here) but VGC is showing a whooping 34% growth YOY in all Europe with that week left of the year. Is that even possible when the 3 biggest markets....by far, are around 10-15%, and all Europe around 34%???. So what then? in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Sweden, Netherlands, .... is a 50-60% growth YOY? It has to be if in Europe is so big the growth...

According to VGC Switch sold 3'4M in Europe in 2017 and it seems is on pace to 4'8M in 2018. That would be a 41% growth YOY in Europe. Knowing UK and France numbers already i find it very difficult to be true.

On the other side, if my maths are correct, Switch is going to be around 1'2M (365k+392k+ around 440k = 1'2M) in USA in December with a week left according to VGC, so maybe finishing the year around 1'4-1'5M. That seems too low.

As for the rest of the world (not USA+EU+JP markets), Switch did 1'6M in 2017 and is alrady around 2'9M in 2018 with a week left. That's a 81% growth YOY (even with a week left).

My guess: USA is going to be undertracked around 500k at least (probably more), EU is going to be overtracked by around 500-600k (at least, too), and ROTW i really don't know anything here how it works, but a 85-90% growth YOY is reaaaaally a lot, so i won't be surprised if it's overtracked too.

For PS4 numbers....well, it seems it only needs around 500-600K in the last week (and maybe some tweaking in VGC numbers) to be on par with official numbers.

I agree with you on America/Europe, one is over and the other under but they cancel each other out.

RotW however could possibly correct. Like I said in last weeks thread, it didn't release until late in 2017 in certain South American & Asian countries.

For example, it launched in South Korea on December 1 and did over 100k by the end of 2017. If it did 100k in 1 month than what did it do in the following 12? Is 250-300k out of the question, a 150-200% increase.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:
Those european numbers for Switch are really weird though. I still think VGC is overtracking big time Switch in Europe.

We had, with a week left, 15% growth YOY in France (we know it has to be 24% in the end), 10% growth YOY in UK (we know it has to be 20% in the end) and VGC is showing a 17% growth YOY in Germany already (we don't know official data yet here) but VGC is showing a whooping 34% growth YOY in all Europe with that week left of the year. Is that even possible when the 3 biggest markets....by far, are around 10-15%, and all Europe around 34%???. So what then? in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Sweden, Netherlands, .... is a 50-60% growth YOY? It has to be if in Europe is so big the growth...

According to VGC Switch sold 3'4M in Europe in 2017 and it seems is on pace to 4'8M in 2018. That would be a 41% growth YOY in Europe. Knowing UK and France numbers already i find it very difficult to be true.

On the other side, if my maths are correct, Switch is going to be around 1'2M (365k+392k+ around 440k = 1'2M) in USA in December with a week left according to VGC, so maybe finishing the year around 1'4-1'5M. That seems too low.

As for the rest of the world (not USA+EU+JP markets), Switch did 1'6M in 2017 and is alrady around 2'9M in 2018 with a week left. That's a 81% growth YOY (even with a week left).

My guess: USA is going to be undertracked around 500k at least (probably more), EU is going to be overtracked by around 500-600k (at least, too), and ROTW i really don't know anything here how it works, but a 85-90% growth YOY is reaaaaally a lot, so i won't be surprised if it's overtracked too.

For PS4 numbers....well, it seems it only needs around 500-600K in the last week (and maybe some tweaking in VGC numbers) to be on par with official numbers.

I agree with you on America/Europe, one is over and the other under but they cancel each other out.

RotW however could possibly correct. Like I said in last weeks thread, it didn't release until late in 2017 in certain South American & Asian countries.

For example, it launched in South Korea on December 1 and did over 100k by the end of 2017. If it did 100k in 1 month than what did it do in the following 12? Is 250-300k out of the question, a 150-200% increase.

Yup, i remember your comment, that's why i added Argentina.....

And yes, US and EU will probably cancel each out. I was expecting myself 2'1-2'3M in US in December, o I expect 0'6-0'8M more, and in Europe I expect 4'1-4'2M for the year, so, probably 0'6-0'7M less.

If ROTW is ok, then Switch should be around 16'8M by the end of the year according to VGC. I expected 16'3M from months, like i discussed numerous times here, so if it end, i'm only around 500k off, i will buy it.



colafitte said:
Those european numbers for Switch are really weird though. I still think VGC is overtracking big time Switch in Europe.

We had, with a week left, 15% growth YOY in France (we know it has to be 24% in the end), 10% growth YOY in UK (we know it has to be 20% in the end) and VGC is showing a 17% growth YOY in Germany already (we don't know official data yet here) but VGC is showing a whooping 34% growth YOY in all Europe with that week left of the year. Is that even possible when the 3 biggest markets....by far, are around 10-15%, and all Europe around 34%???. So what then? in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Sweden, Netherlands, .... is a 50-60% growth YOY? It has to be if in Europe is so big the growth...

Yes, it's possible. Very much so, in fact.

Those countries are where the Playstation is making Sonyland actually a thing. If you just add the big 3 together, then Switch will be pretty close to the PS4 (600K difference, mostly from Germany as UK and France mostly cancel each other out) - yet with all the other countries PS4 will be far in front (by 2.7M, over 4 times more than just with the big 3). Without those countries the PS4 wouldn't be dominating the continent nearly as much.

It's also where the PS4 sales were mostly dropping compared to last year, since Japan is mostly stable and US even potentially up compared to last year. Nintendo has possibly taken over some market share from Sony there.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 15 January 2019

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Hnm what about china? I know there are some restrictions but switch was first in amazon ch for a long time (and even a small increase could mean so much in such big population)



Bofferbrauer2 said:
colafitte said:
Those european numbers for Switch are really weird though. I still think VGC is overtracking big time Switch in Europe.

We had, with a week left, 15% growth YOY in France (we know it has to be 24% in the end), 10% growth YOY in UK (we know it has to be 20% in the end) and VGC is showing a 17% growth YOY in Germany already (we don't know official data yet here) but VGC is showing a whooping 34% growth YOY in all Europe with that week left of the year. Is that even possible when the 3 biggest markets....by far, are around 10-15%, and all Europe around 34%???. So what then? in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Sweden, Netherlands, .... is a 50-60% growth YOY? It has to be if in Europe is so big the growth...

Yes, it's possible. Very much so, in fact.

Those countries are where the Playstation is making Sonyland actually a thing. If you just add the big 3 together, then Switch will be pretty close to the PS4 (600K difference, mostly from Germany as UK and France mostly cancel each other out) - yet with all the other countries PS4 will be far in front. Without those countries the PS4 wouldn't be dominating the continent nearly as much.

It's also where the PS4 sales were mostly dropping compared to last year, since Japan is mostly stable and US even potentially up compared to last year. Nintendo has possibly taken over some market share from Sony there.

It's not "very much" possible at all.

UK, France are not Sonyland by any means. Germany, Spain, Italy are far better examples of that. We don't know Germany numbers either but Germany has been always, alongside Spain, the best market for PS4 (marketshare i mean). So i seriously doubt Switch suddenly is going to grow more there than in UK or France.

And by the, way, i think you did not understand correctly what i meant with EU numbers. If UK, FR and GE are 20-25% growth, and they're basically 65-70% of the market sales in Europe, that means that if Europe as a whole is a 35%, the 30-35% of the rest of Europe must be a lot more than a 35% growth, and there is no info in Spain or Italy (next 2 bigger markets in Europe) saying something like this either, so Netherlands, Portugal, Austria, Sweden, .... is practically impossible that they make the difference.



Clank said:
Hnm what about china? I know there are some restrictions but switch was first in amazon ch for a long time (and even a small increase could mean so much in such big population)

It's not officially released in China. I believe they have to import it.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Amazing switch numbers



colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

I agree with you on America/Europe, one is over and the other under but they cancel each other out.

RotW however could possibly correct. Like I said in last weeks thread, it didn't release until late in 2017 in certain South American & Asian countries.

For example, it launched in South Korea on December 1 and did over 100k by the end of 2017. If it did 100k in 1 month than what did it do in the following 12? Is 250-300k out of the question, a 150-200% increase.

Yup, i remember your comment, that's why i added Argentina.....

And yes, US and EU will probably cancel each out. I was expecting myself 2'1-2'3M in US in December, o I expect 0'6-0'8M more, and in Europe I expect 4'1-4'2M for the year, so, probably 0'6-0'7M less.

If ROTW is ok, then Switch should be around 16'8M by the end of the year according to VGC. I expected 16'3M from months, like i discussed numerous times here, so if it end, i'm only around 500k off, i will buy it.

I believe my prediction from March was PS4 & NSW each doing 17-18 million and XBO around 7.5 million so looks like I will be pretty close.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.