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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 22 December 2018

colafitte on 15 January 2019
Bofferbrauer2 said:
colafitte said:
Those european numbers for Switch are really weird though. I still think VGC is overtracking big time Switch in Europe.

We had, with a week left, 15% growth YOY in France (we know it has to be 24% in the end), 10% growth YOY in UK (we know it has to be 20% in the end) and VGC is showing a 17% growth YOY in Germany already (we don't know official data yet here) but VGC is showing a whooping 34% growth YOY in all Europe with that week left of the year. Is that even possible when the 3 biggest markets....by far, are around 10-15%, and all Europe around 34%???. So what then? in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Sweden, Netherlands, .... is a 50-60% growth YOY? It has to be if in Europe is so big the growth...

Yes, it's possible. Very much so, in fact.

Those countries are where the Playstation is making Sonyland actually a thing. If you just add the big 3 together, then Switch will be pretty close to the PS4 (600K difference, mostly from Germany as UK and France mostly cancel each other out) - yet with all the other countries PS4 will be far in front. Without those countries the PS4 wouldn't be dominating the continent nearly as much.

It's also where the PS4 sales were mostly dropping compared to last year, since Japan is mostly stable and US even potentially up compared to last year. Nintendo has possibly taken over some market share from Sony there.

It's not "very much" possible at all.

UK, France are not Sonyland by any means. Germany, Spain, Italy are far better examples of that. We don't know Germany numbers either but Germany has been always, alongside Spain, the best market for PS4 (marketshare i mean). So i seriously doubt Switch suddenly is going to grow more there than in UK or France.

And by the, way, i think you did not understand correctly what i meant with EU numbers. If UK, FR and GE are 20-25% growth, and they're basically 65-70% of the market sales in Europe, that means that if Europe as a whole is a 35%, the 30-35% of the rest of Europe must be a lot more than a 35% growth, and there is no info in Spain or Italy (next 2 bigger markets in Europe) saying something like this either, so Netherlands, Portugal, Austria, Sweden, .... is practically impossible that they make the difference.



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zorg1000 on 15 January 2019
Clank said:
Hnm what about china? I know there are some restrictions but switch was first in amazon ch for a long time (and even a small increase could mean so much in such big population)

It's not officially released in China. I believe they have to import it.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

aris4me on 15 January 2019

Amazing switch numbers



zorg1000 on 15 January 2019
colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

I agree with you on America/Europe, one is over and the other under but they cancel each other out.

RotW however could possibly correct. Like I said in last weeks thread, it didn't release until late in 2017 in certain South American & Asian countries.

For example, it launched in South Korea on December 1 and did over 100k by the end of 2017. If it did 100k in 1 month than what did it do in the following 12? Is 250-300k out of the question, a 150-200% increase.

Yup, i remember your comment, that's why i added Argentina.....

And yes, US and EU will probably cancel each out. I was expecting myself 2'1-2'3M in US in December, o I expect 0'6-0'8M more, and in Europe I expect 4'1-4'2M for the year, so, probably 0'6-0'7M less.

If ROTW is ok, then Switch should be around 16'8M by the end of the year according to VGC. I expected 16'3M from months, like i discussed numerous times here, so if it end, i'm only around 500k off, i will buy it.

I believe my prediction from March was PS4 & NSW each doing 17-18 million and XBO around 7.5 million so looks like I will be pretty close.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

colafitte on 15 January 2019
zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

Yup, i remember your comment, that's why i added Argentina.....

And yes, US and EU will probably cancel each out. I was expecting myself 2'1-2'3M in US in December, o I expect 0'6-0'8M more, and in Europe I expect 4'1-4'2M for the year, so, probably 0'6-0'7M less.

If ROTW is ok, then Switch should be around 16'8M by the end of the year according to VGC. I expected 16'3M from months, like i discussed numerous times here, so if it end, i'm only around 500k off, i will buy it.

I believe my prediction from March was PS4 & NSW each doing 17-18 million and XBO around 7.5 million so looks like I will be pretty close.

From March??, very good prediction it seems then, well done. I was not making post then, but i was sure already back then that Swich was not going to do as good as most people expected (that 20M FY goal) and that PS4 was going to do a lot better too. In the end, it seems both were correct.



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MasonADC on 15 January 2019

The switch has shrunken the ps4 lead by some much these last few weeks, makes me excited for next year



Slownenberg on 15 January 2019

Wow Switch SMASHHHHHH!

Switch almost doubled PS4 that is totally nuts. 2019 Switch takes over as the leading game system. Hell it might end up within a million of the PS4 in 2018. And it will hit 30 million in 2018! Earlier this year I totally though it'd end up at 28-something. Crazy impressive December for Switch. I think 2019 could be a 20 million year for Switch.

Even Xbox killed PS4 in NA.



kirby007 on 15 January 2019

If smash is indeed the blue ocean game starter the switch wont slow down anymore weeks below 300k are a thing of the past and starting pokemon mainline 2020 will be 30m



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

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ZODIARKrebirth on 15 January 2019

amazing numbers for switch, sales like crazy



Immersiveunreality on 15 January 2019
kirby007 said:
If smash is indeed the blue ocean game starter the switch wont slow down anymore weeks below 300k are a thing of the past and starting pokemon mainline 2020 will be 30m

That will be the time i finally get a switch for myself !

Also it is switch's time to shine,hope they keep this up for a long while and im pretty confident they will !!!