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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 22 December 2018

colafitte on 17 January 2019
160rmf said:
colafitte said:

From March??, very good prediction it seems then, well done. I was not making post then, but i was sure already back then that Swich was not going to do as good as most people expected (that 20M FY goal) and that PS4 was going to do a lot better too. In the end, it seems both were correct.

Does it?

Switch is not going to sell 20M to consumers in 2018 (or fiscal year if you prefer), because that was what some people were expecting back then, not shipped, sold (then after seeing how 2018 was going on they changed to expect shipped, not sold). They expected to outsell ps4 in 2018 too, and that is not happening either. So yes, it seems I'm going to be right in that specific comment I made.



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Cobretti2 on 17 January 2019

Well call me surprised I wasn't expecting to see that.



 

 

AJNShelton on 17 January 2019
colafitte said:
160rmf said:

Does it?

Switch is not going to sell 20M to consumers in 2018 (or fiscal year if you prefer), because that was what some people were expecting back then, not shipped, sold (then after seeing how 2018 was going on they changed to expect shipped, not sold). They expected to outsell ps4 in 2018 too, and that is not happening either. So yes, it seems I'm going to be right in that specific comment I made.

You just made that up



DonFerrari on 17 January 2019
SKMBlake said:
colafitte said:

Switch is not going to sell 20M to consumers in 2018 (or fiscal year if you prefer), because that was what some people were expecting back then, not shipped, sold (then after seeing how 2018 was going on they changed to expect shipped, not sold). They expected to outsell ps4 in 2018 too, and that is not happening either. So yes, it seems I'm going to be right in that specific comment I made.

You just made that up

And did he made up that a lot of people expected or predicted that Switch would outsell PS4 in 2018?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

colafitte on 17 January 2019
SKMBlake said:
colafitte said:

Switch is not going to sell 20M to consumers in 2018 (or fiscal year if you prefer), because that was what some people were expecting back then, not shipped, sold (then after seeing how 2018 was going on they changed to expect shipped, not sold). They expected to outsell ps4 in 2018 too, and that is not happening either. So yes, it seems I'm going to be right in that specific comment I made.

You just made that up

I did not made that up at all. The moment Nintendo annouced they expected 20M shipped for the next 12 months, most people expected Switch selling that to consumers. It's normal. If tomorrow Sony says they expect 15M shipped for next year, most people are going to expect around 15M sold to consumers too. Maybe you know the difference between shipped and sold, but most people in forums and gaming sites don't. They're always mixing one or another. And as a proof, Vandal.net has a news today like this:

https://vandal.elespanol.com/noticia/1350717834/switch-podria-haber-vendido-11-millones-de-consolas-en-el-ultimo-trimestre/

"Switch could have SOLD 11 millions of consoles last quarter"

When the original info is always talking about shipment numbers.

It's the way it is...

Last edited by colafitte - on 17 January 2019

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Mandalore76 on 17 January 2019
CrazyGPU said:
Amazing numbers for the Switch. Then some people critizised me for saying its a great present for kids and family for Christmas. I mean, many adults buy it for sure, but those sells don´t need to wait for christmas most of the time. Number shows that half the people are getting it as a present for the holidays.

You realize that Black Friday, where the PS4 gets a huge amount of sales from, is a Christmas Shopping holiday right?  Also, Switch had a huge launch in March 2017, a non-typical shopping period.  By your logic, PS4 launched in November of it's release year, because it was counting on Christmas purchases, which must only be for kids according to you.  Because adults don't ever give each other Christmas presents.  Not ever.



Ganoncrotch on 17 January 2019

these last few weeks have been devastating for that X1 lead over the Switch in terms of total sales, people were predicting the Switch will pass it in late 2020 or 21 but like... the last 2 weeks the Switch has consumed a million of that lead per week. 14m to go to catch the X1, unless something totally nuts happens I can't see that taking 2 years to pass.



Why not check me out on youtube and help me on the way to 2k subs over at www.youtube.com/stormcloudlive

AJNShelton on 17 January 2019
DonFerrari said:
SKMBlake said:

You just made that up

And did he made up that a lot of people expected or predicted that Switch would outsell PS4 in 2018?

Probably not (I was expecting that too) but everyone here knows at least how forecast works, and how it's always shipped since they can't really know precisely sold-through number. 



MasonADC on 17 January 2019
colafitte said:
SKMBlake said:

You just made that up

I did not made that up at all. The moment Nintendo annouced they expected 20M shipped for the next 12 months, most people expected Switch selling that to consumers. It's normal. If tomorrow Sony says they expect 15M shipped for next year, most people are going to expect around 15M sold to consumers too. Maybe you know the difference between shipped and sold, but most people in forums and gaming sites don't. They're always mixing one or another. And as a proof, Vandal.net has a news today like this:

https://vandal.elespanol.com/noticia/1350717834/switch-podria-haber-vendido-11-millones-de-consolas-en-el-ultimo-trimestre/

"Switch could have SOLD 11 millions of consoles last quarter"

When the original info is always talking about shipment numbers.

It's the way it is...

Too be fair, many expected the Switch to sorta replicate its 2017 lineup. Nintendo isn't very good at letting us know when games will be out in a reasonable time. That's the same reason why I can't make a reasonable prediction for this year, as the whole year is shrouded in mystery 



colafitte on 17 January 2019
MasonADC said:
colafitte said:

I did not made that up at all. The moment Nintendo annouced they expected 20M shipped for the next 12 months, most people expected Switch selling that to consumers. It's normal. If tomorrow Sony says they expect 15M shipped for next year, most people are going to expect around 15M sold to consumers too. Maybe you know the difference between shipped and sold, but most people in forums and gaming sites don't. They're always mixing one or another. And as a proof, Vandal.net has a news today like this:

https://vandal.elespanol.com/noticia/1350717834/switch-podria-haber-vendido-11-millones-de-consolas-en-el-ultimo-trimestre/

"Switch could have SOLD 11 millions of consoles last quarter"

When the original info is always talking about shipment numbers.

It's the way it is...

Too be fair, many expected the Switch to sorta replicate its 2017 lineup. Nintendo isn't very good at letting us know when games will be out in a reasonable time. That's the same reason why I can't make a reasonable prediction for this year, as the whole year is shrouded in mystery 

Fair enough. It's really difficult to make a good prediction for the year so early indeed (for any console). But i think Nintendo saying they aimed to ship 20M consoles for the year hyped a lot of people, not only here, but everywhere, so it was normal people expected those sales.