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December NPD 2018 thread

Forums - Sales Discussion - December NPD 2018 thread

MasonADC said:
Intrinsic said:

 

yup..... 

people can just forget about that price drop as long as sony can still manage like 16M+ sales at $299. I mean the NS has a smaller install base and is currently averaging around 16M/yr also at $299 and is still less than 2yrs old. 

Why should the 5yr+ old PS4 drop its price from $299 when its still putting up 18M+ years?

I will say it again' no price drop unless we have sub 2014 year numbers.

What was 2014 numbers? Because there is no way that the PS4 does 16 million this year

USA will be down more than people expect imo 

No way huh??. I'm pretty sure it can do it. People expecting ps4 disappearing and selling much less in 2019 has not been paying attention to ps4 this gen at all. 



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KingofTrolls said:
Acevil said:

Switch and nintendo will do fine. Their success seems independent of Sony and Microsoft war and ultimately is based on internal hardware and software ideals for success and failure.

The problem I have with Nintendo consoles, they always seem like one-trick pony to me. Alright, they kinda merged handheld/home console with Switch ( but the latter lags behind big time ), Switch is selling good, but still, the sales of the separate home consoles and handhelds are untouchable.

The Switch's succes so far, seems more like Wii U failure/3DS dying effect, than its own achievement. 

Switch is matching 3DS+Wii U hardware, has much better software sales and is significantly more profitable so I dont agree that separate handheld/consoles are untouchable unless you are specifically talking about Wii+DS but nobody is ever reaching those heights again.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

colafitte said:
Intrinsic said:

 

yup..... 

people can just forget about that price drop as long as sony can still manage like 16M+ sales at $299. I mean the NS has a smaller install base and is currently averaging around 16M/yr also at $299 and is still less than 2yrs old. 

Why should the 5yr+ old PS4 drop its price from $299 when its still putting up 18M+ years?

I will say it again' no price drop unless we have sub 2014 year numbers.

Did you not laugh at me the other day for saying PS4 is going to do 16M this year?? . Don't get me wrong, i'm saying that in a good mood, so i want to ask you again if you think i'm going to be wrong, because if i remember correctly, you expected 15M at most didn't you?

I really think PS4 is going to do 16M with or without price cut, and Switch is not going to do so much better as most people are expecing. I expecting an adjustment for Switch in 2018 being more like 16'5M in 2018, and something like 17'5-18M in 2019. So, if in the improbable situation that Sony did a huge price cut for PS4, PS4 would be very close to those numbers too in my opinion (but it won't happen in my opinion). 2019 software for PS4 is going to be legendary and if TLOU II launches this year.....buff.

Yes...... I am still expecting PS4 to do around 15M this year. WITHOUT A PRICE DROP. 

With a price drop around june this year to $199 then it will finish the year at around 17M. If the price drop comes around october instead then it finished the year at 16M. 

As for the NS I expect it to around sell around 2M more than whatever it sold last year. So if it finished 2018 at around 16.5M I expect it to do 18.5M in 2019 but only if its none holiday average sales (jan - oct) goes up by at least 5%. If however it remains flat or even drops through jan-oct then I expect it t sell n more than 1M more in 2019 vs 2018. 



MasonADC said:

What was 2014 numbers? Because there is no way that the PS4 does 16 million this year

USA will be down more than people expect imo 

2014 number is around 14M.

My personal prediction for PS4 in 2019 is 15M. Give or take 250k. But this is because I expect sony to not drop the price of the PS4 especially if they can see that they are still tracking to sell around 15M while still being at $299.

If we get a price drop around june or october it will be because sony is putting up 2014 like numbers.



Intrinsic said:
colafitte said:

Did you not laugh at me the other day for saying PS4 is going to do 16M this year?? . Don't get me wrong, i'm saying that in a good mood, so i want to ask you again if you think i'm going to be wrong, because if i remember correctly, you expected 15M at most didn't you?

I really think PS4 is going to do 16M with or without price cut, and Switch is not going to do so much better as most people are expecing. I expecting an adjustment for Switch in 2018 being more like 16'5M in 2018, and something like 17'5-18M in 2019. So, if in the improbable situation that Sony did a huge price cut for PS4, PS4 would be very close to those numbers too in my opinion (but it won't happen in my opinion). 2019 software for PS4 is going to be legendary and if TLOU II launches this year.....buff.

Yes...... I am still expecting PS4 to do around 15M this year. WITHOUT A PRICE DROP. 

With a price drop around june this year to $199 then it will finish the year at around 17M. If the price drop comes around october instead then it finished the year at 16M. 

As for the NS I expect it to around sell around 2M more than whatever it sold last year. So if it finished 2018 at around 16.5M I expect it to do 18.5M in 2019 but only if its none holiday average sales (jan - oct) goes up by at least 5%. If however it remains flat or even drops through jan-oct then I expect it t sell n more than 1M more in 2019 vs 2018. 

15-16M is the range i expect too, only you expect 15M and me, more like 16M. It will probably be around that....



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Honestly, NS numbers are pretty underwhelming, I expected 2 Million+ based on the consensus on here!

How does this line up with Nintendo's 20 Million FY prediction? Can they make it?



Chart time!

 

The Switch's performance was the best of any system this generation (including the 3DS). The last time a system sold more units in a single month was the 360's performance in Dec. 2011.

More charts, including quarterly and yearly ones, will arrive later on today.

EDIT: Charts updated with corrected Nov. 2017 data for the PS4.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 24 January 2019

LTD
PS4: ~28.4M
XB1: ~24.5M
NSW: ~10.5M



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

PotentHerbs said:
Honestly, NS numbers are pretty underwhelming, I expected 2 Million+ based on the consensus on here!

How does this line up with Nintendo's 20 Million FY prediction? Can they make it?

Best month for a console in 8 years is underwhelming?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Shadow1980 said:

Chart time!

 

The Switch's performance was the best of any system this generation (including the 3DS). The last time a system sold more units in a single month was the 360's performance in Dec. 2011.

More charts, including quarterly and yearly ones, will arrive later on today.

"The Switch's performance was the best of any system this generation (including the 3DS). The last time a system sold more units in a single month was the 360's performance in Dec. 2011." 

 

Wow, people keep saying that switch's numbers are underwhelming? Switch is kicking asses! People should not have underestimated it and don't forget that 2019 will be the strongest year of the console since its launch