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December NPD 2018 thread

Forums - Sales Discussion - December NPD 2018 thread

Kai_Mao said:
Are the Switch results disappointing because of analyst and our expectations? Or is it because of Nintendo’s 20 million FY shipments goal?

Switch is up 18% YoY with a Smash release. That's weak. 

If Smash hadn't released Switch would've been down YoY.



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colafitte said:
kindark said:

Benji: "I will no longer be providing any sort of insight into the industry, sales data, or anything of that nature permanently. Sorry to those that enjoy what I share but my mental health is more important"

I'm sorry for Benji, he is a cool dude and a helpful insider, but he is the only one to blame for this. When you make predictions and you're wrong, there's no problem, but when you start being cocky and saying "i'm being right in the past, when people are going to believe everything i say??, by the way, i expect Switch doing almost impossible numbers in December" it's your fault. 

He just suffered from Icarus syndrome, he flew too close to the sun and ended being burned.... I wish him the best and a time outside forum sales can only be healthier for him.

Wrong, he did not say that.  I followed those threads the whole time.  He pitched his tent *firmly* at 2 mil and warned even that might not happen. He told people, multiple times, that he didn't buy into any 2.4 to 2.5 mil predictions.  HE didn't stir that up, others did.  He was dead on in every other element of his analysis, sales were just overall slightly softer than he put it.  The "way over 2 mil" stuff being directed at him is just misinformation.

The problem isn't he flew to close to the sun, the problem is the internet is full of petulant, abusive, patheticlittle cretins who harrass people - actually freaking harrass people- over sales discussions.  And when he was dead on in multiple months, 90% of people don't care.  Because these pitiful excuses for individuals treat him and other insiders who provide the information that sales forums get their discussion points from like vending machines: ignored when they work, kicked when they don't.  It's why we now have to pray that MagicPork comes through with NPD numbers because nearly every other insider has been run off by harrassers and condescending pricks who rather than point out how noxious that kind of behaviour is accuse the insiders of being drama queens and divas for expecting some basic respect.



Nuvendil said:
colafitte said:

I'm sorry for Benji, he is a cool dude and a helpful insider, but he is the only one to blame for this. When you make predictions and you're wrong, there's no problem, but when you start being cocky and saying "i'm being right in the past, when people are going to believe everything i say??, by the way, i expect Switch doing almost impossible numbers in December" it's your fault. 

He just suffered from Icarus syndrome, he flew too close to the sun and ended being burned.... I wish him the best and a time outside forum sales can only be healthier for him.

Wrong, he did not say that.  I followed those threads the whole time.  He pitched his tent *firmly* at 2 mil and warned even that might not happen. He told people, multiple times, that he didn't buy into any 2.4 to 2.5 mil predictions.  HE didn't stir that up, others did.  He was dead on in every other element of his analysis, sales were just overall slightly softer than he put it.  The "way over 2 mil" stuff being directed at him is just misinformation.

The problem isn't he flew to close to the sun, the problem is the internet is full of petulant, abusive, patheticlittle cretins who harrass people - actually freaking harrass people- over sales discussions.  And when he was dead on in multiple months, 90% of people don't care.  Because these pitiful excuses for individuals treat him and other insiders who provide the information that sales forums get their discussion points from like vending machines: ignored when they work, kicked when they don't.  It's why we now have to pray that MagicPork comes through with NPD numbers because nearly every other insider has been run off by harrassers and condescending pricks who rather than point out how noxious that kind of behaviour is accuse the insiders of being drama queens and divas for expecting some basic respect.

100% agree with you, or own leaker was harassed out by users in previous thread almost a year ago.



 

Acevil said:
Nuvendil said:

Wrong, he did not say that.  I followed those threads the whole time.  He pitched his tent *firmly* at 2 mil and warned even that might not happen. He told people, multiple times, that he didn't buy into any 2.4 to 2.5 mil predictions.  HE didn't stir that up, others did.  He was dead on in every other element of his analysis, sales were just overall slightly softer than he put it.  The "way over 2 mil" stuff being directed at him is just misinformation.

The problem isn't he flew to close to the sun, the problem is the internet is full of petulant, abusive, patheticlittle cretins who harrass people - actually freaking harrass people- over sales discussions.  And when he was dead on in multiple months, 90% of people don't care.  Because these pitiful excuses for individuals treat him and other insiders who provide the information that sales forums get their discussion points from like vending machines: ignored when they work, kicked when they don't.  It's why we now have to pray that MagicPork comes through with NPD numbers because nearly every other insider has been run off by harrassers and condescending pricks who rather than point out how noxious that kind of behaviour is accuse the insiders of being drama queens and divas for expecting some basic respect.

100% agree with you, or own leaker was harassed out by users in previous thread almost a year ago.

I was about to bring that up too. Can't remember his name right now but I do remember the situation.



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Nuvendil said:
colafitte said:

I'm sorry for Benji, he is a cool dude and a helpful insider, but he is the only one to blame for this. When you make predictions and you're wrong, there's no problem, but when you start being cocky and saying "i'm being right in the past, when people are going to believe everything i say??, by the way, i expect Switch doing almost impossible numbers in December" it's your fault. 

He just suffered from Icarus syndrome, he flew too close to the sun and ended being burned.... I wish him the best and a time outside forum sales can only be healthier for him.

Wrong, he did not say that.  I followed those threads the whole time.  He pitched his tent *firmly* at 2 mil and warned even that might not happen. He told people, multiple times, that he didn't buy into any 2.4 to 2.5 mil predictions.  HE didn't stir that up, others did.  He was dead on in every other element of his analysis, sales were just overall slightly softer than he put it.  The "way over 2 mil" stuff being directed at him is just misinformation.

The problem isn't he flew to close to the sun, the problem is the internet is full of petulant, abusive, patheticlittle cretins who harrass people - actually freaking harrass people- over sales discussions.  And when he was dead on in multiple months, 90% of people don't care.  Because these pitiful excuses for individuals treat him and other insiders who provide the information that sales forums get their discussion points from like vending machines: ignored when they work, kicked when they don't.  It's why we now have to pray that MagicPork comes through with NPD numbers because nearly every other insider has been run off by harrassers and condescending pricks who rather than point out how noxious that kind of behaviour is accuse the insiders of being drama queens and divas for expecting some basic respect.

Not wrong at all....I see those threads too, and i saw with my own eyes multiple times, he, saying being upset because people still doubted him, and he saying something similar of what i said a few times. I'm not lying at all. Then, in the last few days, when he started panicking is when he remembered, using humor, that it could be lower than 2M.

And he is the one to blame, i'm sorry, but if you make predictions and start calling people or forums like this "shit hole" for doubting him, he will receive the same treatment when he is proved wrong. I'm not defending people insulting him, but he has to face reality, because if it was the opposite, he would be repeating again, how much he is right and how people still doubt him. Eat crow, like anyone else when you're wrong and move on.

Be responsible of your words....that's all.



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colafitte said:
Nuvendil said:

Wrong, he did not say that.  I followed those threads the whole time.  He pitched his tent *firmly* at 2 mil and warned even that might not happen. He told people, multiple times, that he didn't buy into any 2.4 to 2.5 mil predictions.  HE didn't stir that up, others did.  He was dead on in every other element of his analysis, sales were just overall slightly softer than he put it.  The "way over 2 mil" stuff being directed at him is just misinformation.

The problem isn't he flew to close to the sun, the problem is the internet is full of petulant, abusive, patheticlittle cretins who harrass people - actually freaking harrass people- over sales discussions.  And when he was dead on in multiple months, 90% of people don't care.  Because these pitiful excuses for individuals treat him and other insiders who provide the information that sales forums get their discussion points from like vending machines: ignored when they work, kicked when they don't.  It's why we now have to pray that MagicPork comes through with NPD numbers because nearly every other insider has been run off by harrassers and condescending pricks who rather than point out how noxious that kind of behaviour is accuse the insiders of being drama queens and divas for expecting some basic respect.

Not wrong at all....I see those threads too, and i saw with my own eyes multiple times, he, saying being upset because people still doubted him, and he saying something similar of what i said a few times. I'm not lying at all. Then, in the last few days, when he started panicking is when he remembered, using humor, that it could be lower than 2M.

And he is the one to blame, i'm sorry, but if you make predictions and start calling people or forums like this "shit hole" for doubting him, he will receive the same treatment when he is proved wrong. I'm not defending people insulting him, but he has to face reality, because if it was the opposite, he would be repeating again, how much he is right and how people still doubt him. Eat crow, like anyone else when you're wrong and move on.

Be responsible of your words....that's all.

The only thing that's Benji's fault imo, is forgetting how childish and toxic people are on the internet. Those waiting around, licking their chops for him to be wrong about something. Now the internet has chased away yet another insider, they'll never learn. 



Evilms said:

PS4 LTD US

2016 : 5.20M (-9.2%)

What numbers are you using for 2016? Specifically November if you can, and where you got it.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

switch did great. of course people want to focus on stupid stuff like one insider being slightly off in his predictions.



p0isonparadise said:
Kai_Mao said:
Are the Switch results disappointing because of analyst and our expectations? Or is it because of Nintendo’s 20 million FY shipments goal?

Switch is up 18% YoY with a Smash release. That's weak. 

If Smash hadn't released Switch would've been down YoY.

But it's not like the sky is falling on the Switch.

I mean, we've also talked about how Nintendo's first party output outside of Smash, Pokemon, and Mario Party was relatively weak for most of the year compared to last year.

That's more like, "no #%$ it would've been low without a big hitter or two." Considering outside of Kirby, Pokemon Let's Go, Smash, Mario Party, Octopath Traveler, and Mario Tennis Aces, most of the games Switch has gotten in 2018 were ports. That's the context I'm looking at.



PortisheadBiscuit said:
colafitte said:

Not wrong at all....I see those threads too, and i saw with my own eyes multiple times, he, saying being upset because people still doubted him, and he saying something similar of what i said a few times. I'm not lying at all. Then, in the last few days, when he started panicking is when he remembered, using humor, that it could be lower than 2M.

And he is the one to blame, i'm sorry, but if you make predictions and start calling people or forums like this "shit hole" for doubting him, he will receive the same treatment when he is proved wrong. I'm not defending people insulting him, but he has to face reality, because if it was the opposite, he would be repeating again, how much he is right and how people still doubt him. Eat crow, like anyone else when you're wrong and move on.

Be responsible of your words....that's all.

The only thing that's Benji's fault imo, is forgetting how childish and toxic people are on the internet. Those waiting around, licking their chops for him to be wrong about something. Now the internet has chased away yet another insider, they'll never learn. 

You have to count that of course. When you expose yourself too much (and he noticed that when he saw how his tweets started being headlines in gaming sites) you have to be more cautious about what you say. He just miscalculated the reaction of his words. Toxic people in the internet are not going to disappear.

I wish Benji comes back some day. I said previously that his insight is very useful and i always listened what he said. He just need to protect himself better, and some time in the sideline will be good for him to come back stronger and wiser.