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December NPD 2018 thread

Forums - Sales Discussion - December NPD 2018 thread

zorg1000 said:
Switch: 1
XBO: 0.52
PS4: 0.45
Other: 0.76
3DS: 0.19

YoY:
Switch: +18%
XBO: -32%
PS4:-24%
Other: +52%
3DS: -56%

Either Dec. 2017's numbers for the PS4 & XBO were off or somebody borked their math or made a type there, because the YoY % increases don't match up with the proportions. If the PS4's 1080k from 2017 was accurate, then given those numbers the XBO would have to be at 948k. But if the 1365k for the XBO's Dec. 2017 is accurate, then a -32% YoY decline would put it at 928k. -30.5% would be closer. But using the proportions, the Switch is anywhere from 1785k to 1824k, and a 40k range at this volume is a margin of error of about 2%, not significant but not trivial, either.

For the time being, I'm going to assume 821k for the PS4 and split the difference on the XBO & Switch, meaning 938k and 1805k, respectively. If we get something a bit more accurate I'll alter everything. It's late right now so I'll post a few of my standard charts. Yearly and quarter charts will arrive tomorrow.



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zorg1000 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Rather bad numbers all around. Basically everything is way below expectations, and both PS4 and XBO numbers are really bad for a December. I mean, when was the last time either did below 1M in December?

Even though it did less than expected, Switch had the best month of any console/handheld in 8 years so I dont see how that can be considered bad.

The "bad" was mostly aimed at PS4 and XBO for their steep drop compared to last year and being below 1M each.

Switch is only bad in context, not only compared to it's hype, but despite SSBU and PLG the increase compared to last year's December is rather meager. 1771K is superb, but just not much more than the 1560K of last year



Bofferbrauer2 said:
zorg1000 said:

Even though it did less than expected, Switch had the best month of any console/handheld in 8 years so I dont see how that can be considered bad.

The "bad" was mostly aimed at PS4 and XBO for their steep drop compared to last year and being below 1M each.

Switch is only bad in context, not only compared to it's hype, but despite SSBU and PLG the increase compared to last year's December is rather meager. 1771K is superb, but just not much more than the 1560K of last year

Where are you coming up with 1560 last year? It was 1500k



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Shadow1980 said:
zorg1000 said:
Switch: 1
XBO: 0.52
PS4: 0.45
Other: 0.76
3DS: 0.19

YoY:
Switch: +18%
XBO: -32%
PS4:-24%
Other: +52%
3DS: -56%

Either Dec. 2017's numbers for the PS4 & XBO were off or somebody borked their math or made a type there, because the YoY % increases don't match up with the proportions. If the PS4's 1080k from 2017 was accurate, then given those numbers the XBO would have to be at 948k. But if the 1365k for the XBO's Dec. 2017 is accurate, then a -32% YoY decline would put it at 928k. -30.5% would be closer. But using the proportions, the Switch is anywhere from 1785k to 1824k, and a 40k range at this volume is a margin of error of about 2%, not significant but not trivial, either.

For the time being, I'm going to assume 821k for the PS4 and split the difference on the XBO & Switch, meaning 938k and 1805k, respectively. If we get something a bit more accurate I'll alter everything. It's late right now so I'll post a few of my standard charts. Yearly and quarter charts will arrive tomorrow.

Welfare on Era has these numbers

2017

PS4-1050k

XBO-1350k

NSW-1500k

2018

PS4-800k

XBO-920k

NSW-1770k



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

The "bad" was mostly aimed at PS4 and XBO for their steep drop compared to last year and being below 1M each.

Switch is only bad in context, not only compared to it's hype, but despite SSBU and PLG the increase compared to last year's December is rather meager. 1771K is superb, but just not much more than the 1560K of last year

Where are you coming up with 1560 last year? It was 1500k

Typo, don't know how that 6 got there.

Still the point still stands, as 270K isn't much of a difference considering the game lineup



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'other' is mostly composed of SNES classic, right?
damn, really good.
The only good surprise, given the switch expectations.



I've made adjustments to our figures to closely match the leaked NPD figures and posted the December 29 hardware figures. If anything seems off be sure to let me know. I am about to head to bed as it is 2:30am here.



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zorg1000 said:

Welfare on Era has these numbers

2017

PS4-1050k

XBO-1350k

NSW-1500k

2018

PS4-800k

XBO-920k

NSW-1770k

So, the numbers I recorded from last December (which are in the OP as well) were actually slightly higher than that (+2.86% for the PS4 and +1.1% for the XBO). Those lower numbers for 2017 would actually would fit the percentages and proportions for this year.



trunkswd said:

I've made adjustments to our figures to closely match the leaked NPD figures and posted the December 29 hardware figures. If anything seems off be sure to let me know. I am about to head to bed as it is 2:30am here.

Making adjustments at 230am? You're crazy lol



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

I believe 1770k for Switch would be the best December of this generation (PS4/XB1 included) so that's good.

That number likely is not what Nintendo needed to get to that 20 mill target though, you likely needed sales in the 2.2-2.5 mill range to keep that target in play.

Switch is a more traditional type of platform in its sales curve (more like the PS4 actually) and I think Nintendo is going to have to just embrace that and make sure they are selling more throughout the year, not just leaning so heavily on holiday sales.

PS4 and XB1 were somewhat weak this December.