Torillian said:
My apologies for the late reply, I knew this would take some time to think about and write out and life has been busy. I agree that laymen talk about scientific research in the way you describe, using single studies and modeling their decisions around what the media portrays the conclusions to be. I think that skepticism of any specific study or what is read in the media is healthy. My concern is that if one takes that too far you start to disbelieve things that become detrimental. The example of climate change is an apt one, while I would not hang my hat on a single study or a story in the media, meta-analyses of studies I find quite trustworthy to get an idea of the consensus of the scientific community and that is overwhelmingly on the side of "it's happening and we're causing it". The line "well at one point you all thought it was going to be global cooling" is often used as a way to dismiss the current understanding even though I don't think there's been any meta analysis done of any time range that indicated that the consensus was global cooling. Hence my concern that you are dismissing the findings of current climate change science based on a perceived consensus from decades ago. I disagree with the example about having a consensus that butter was to be avoided. At least, not a consensus among scientists though I would agree there was a consensus among doctors seeing patients. Biological questions like that are incredibly complex and I would be surprised to find a consensus among scientists in that field about any given food to avoid as there are so many variables to account for. You can appeal to common sense but you were not interacting with scientists doing these kind of studies, rather you were interacting with the doctors and media trying to make recommendations based off how they perceived these studies. Similar to your original example of how one should take research and how those not in the field often do, I suspect that the differences in your grandmother, mother, and father's dietary recommendations are due to similar factors. All that said, my field does not involve anything as macro as the climate or dietary effects on human health so this is speaking solely within my understanding of how research is done and published in my field. It's possible that those fields are more apt to make more direct and concrete conclusions (with less "outs" if a particular hypothesis ends up incorrect) based on their findings which lead media to make more sensationalist headlines, but regardless I think the doctors acted reasonably because all they can do is base their recommendations off their understanding of recent findings. Overall, I cannot accept "common sense" understanding to tell me what the consensus of the scientific community is or was and I hope that you are not dismissing current consensus based on how you perceive it to have changed in the past. Science could always be wrong about something, but the methods for research and publication are rigorous enough that I think it's best to trust the scientific consensus unless you know of particular issues with the studies that make up that consensus. This is why I dislike the sentiment you put forth in the original post, because it can easily lead to viewpoints that are completely against everything we've come to understand about reality like Anti-vaxxer, anti-GMO, anti-human caused climate change, and even things as ridiculous as globe denial. |
When you say that science could always be wrong about something, you're agreeing with me, that was my whole point, even though we can discuss if my examples were the right ones or not.
Now, You say that there were no scientific consensus about butter and eggs even though doctors were giving recommendations based on recent findings.
Two questions:
* Where does those recent findings come from?
* If even the US federal dietary guidelines have been changing its recommendation on eggs (from "limit and avoid consumption" to "ok, dietary cholesterol is not bad"), how can we say that we didn't have a scientific consensus about it?
If advices like those we get from doctors and government aren't a sort of scientific consensus, what's science then? Again, I'm not a scientist and the terms that I use here don't have philosophical and scientific meaning, but you have to agree that I'm not quoting Oprah Winfrey. You can call your GP now and he'll say to you that there were and there are guidelines on foods like eggs and butter and that it's has been changed from sort of bad to good. You can also call your children school and they'll tell you that the amount of eggs and cholesterol they serve to children come from guidelines.
That's why I haven't quoted any source, because this talk on eggs, butter and cholesterol is so consensual everywhere that there's no need to quote, really, and I feel like those who ask me to quote it are just trying to defeat me on the discussion on absurd technicalities.
Now, if you say that my GP, my children school chef, the gov guidelines, the overall media advice on animal fat doesn't come at all from some sort of scientific consensus. Well, then, we should trust no one.
God bless You.
My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+
When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019
There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?