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Nintendo Switch in Japan: 2018 vs. 2019 - Week 28 Numbers Posted

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The_Liquid_Laser said:
That gap between 2018 and 2019 is just going to keep increasing every week. Nintendo didn't really release anything major last year until the end of 2018. This year they are already tracking ahead, and you can bet they are going to have a better release schedule this year.

Hmm, as Rol pointed out, I don't believe the baseline is much growing this year. Maybe a few K, enough to keep the Switch consistently above 40K without dips below like last year. The reason for that is mostly - that the Switch already sold pretty great in japan. There simply is not too much potential for growth.

This is different in the US and especially europe though. The Switch has the clear potential to grow here - let's see if it can fulfill that potential.

But back to Japan - I still see Switch up against last year. But not because of the baseline, but because of the game release peaks. Even last year some games boosted the sales around 5K-10K. I expect to see such releases more often this year. Additionally there will be bigger peaks on DQ11, Yokai Watch and Animal Crossing. And the holidays will be crazy because of Pokemon.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

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Mnementh said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
That gap between 2018 and 2019 is just going to keep increasing every week. Nintendo didn't really release anything major last year until the end of 2018. This year they are already tracking ahead, and you can bet they are going to have a better release schedule this year.

Hmm, as Rol pointed out, I don't believe the baseline is much growing this year. Maybe a few K, enough to keep the Switch consistently above 40K without dips below like last year. The reason for that is mostly - that the Switch already sold pretty great in japan. There simply is not too much potential for growth.

This is different in the US and especially europe though. The Switch has the clear potential to grow here - let's see if it can fulfill that potential.

But back to Japan - I still see Switch up against last year. But not because of the baseline, but because of the game release peaks. Even last year some games boosted the sales around 5K-10K. I expect to see such releases more often this year. Additionally there will be bigger peaks on DQ11, Yokai Watch and Animal Crossing. And the holidays will be crazy because of Pokemon.

Already 150K over last year though



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Mnementh said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
That gap between 2018 and 2019 is just going to keep increasing every week. Nintendo didn't really release anything major last year until the end of 2018. This year they are already tracking ahead, and you can bet they are going to have a better release schedule this year.

Hmm, as Rol pointed out, I don't believe the baseline is much growing this year. Maybe a few K, enough to keep the Switch consistently above 40K without dips below like last year. The reason for that is mostly - that the Switch already sold pretty great in japan. There simply is not too much potential for growth.

This is different in the US and especially europe though. The Switch has the clear potential to grow here - let's see if it can fulfill that potential.

But back to Japan - I still see Switch up against last year. But not because of the baseline, but because of the game release peaks. Even last year some games boosted the sales around 5K-10K. I expect to see such releases more often this year. Additionally there will be bigger peaks on DQ11, Yokai Watch and Animal Crossing. And the holidays will be crazy because of Pokemon.

We may actually be saying the same thing.  I expect the baseline to up a few K every week.  That is just going to make the gap grow between 2018 and 2019 even when there isn't a decent release.  As you pointed out, there are going to also be significant releases throughout the year.  So add these peaks to the baseline, and yeah, the gap between 2018 and 2019 is just going to keep growing and growing.



I think the baseline could be like 20% (~10k) higher this year, which is significant, but there should be a lot more releases that give boosts as well. Also if a new version of the Switch comes out (either a cheaper one or a pro version with the original dropping in price) we could see a several hundred thousand unit bump from that as well. I think Switch will easily clear 4 million this year and I think a good target is 4.5 million with a higher baseline, more game release bumps than last year, revision, lower entry price, Animal Crossing, and Pokemon.



Week 6 numbers have just been added and the Switch just passed 530k in Japan for the year. Compared to last year, the Switch didn't reach that mark until week 10.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

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PAOerfulone said:
Week 6 numbers have just been added and the Switch just passed 530k in Japan for the year. Compared to last year, the Switch didn't reach that mark until week 10.

And with that Direct, the gap will just get bigger and bigger

Edit: How much did the 3DS do in it's best year? 4.8M? Because if the Switch continues like that it might get rather close call between the two.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 13 February 2019

Bofferbrauer2 said:
PAOerfulone said:
Week 6 numbers have just been added and the Switch just passed 530k in Japan for the year. Compared to last year, the Switch didn't reach that mark until week 10.

And with that Direct, the gap will just get bigger and bigger

Edit: How much did the 3DS do in it's best year? 4.8M? Because if the Switch continues like that it might get rather close call between the two.

Hohooo, yes it will. Yoshi may not move much units when it drops in late March. But the baseline should maintain its level with a few drops here and there until Mario Maker 2 comes out. Then, with Three Houses & Dragon Quest XI S one month later, this summer should be quite the increase of last summer. 

As for your second question, the 3DS' best year, according to VGC, was close to 5.5 million in 2012. That's a BIG year and even with the Switch's current lineup planned for this year, it will be very difficult/highly unlikely to reach those levels. But, I expect the Switch to start noticeably closing the gap on the 3DS in 2020 regardless.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 13 February 2019

Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

PAOerfulone said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

And with that Direct, the gap will just get bigger and bigger

Edit: How much did the 3DS do in it's best year? 4.8M? Because if the Switch continues like that it might get rather close call between the two.

Hohooo, yes it will. Yoshi may not move much units when it drops in late March. But the baseline should maintain its level with a few drops here and there until Mario Maker 2 comes out. Then, with Three Houses & Dragon Quest XI S one month later, this summer should be quite the increase of last summer. 

As for your second question, the 3DS' best year, according to VGC, was close to 5.5 million in 2012. That's a BIG year and even with the Switch's current lineup planned for this year, it will be very difficult/highly unlikely to reach those levels. But, I expect the Switch to start noticeably closing the gap on the 3DS in 2020 regardless.

Somehow, I was under the impression the 4.88M of 2013 was it's best year. I agree 5.5M is just too much, 4.8M seems much more achievable by now.

I mean, Dragon Quest, Pokemon and Animal Crossing coming out in the same year? Plus a plethora of other games? Looks to me like the switch will be on fire starting summer and then go straight to ludicrous speed in fall when the 3 big ones will release.



It's cruising along the good waves of time ;)



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

+ 25K this week baby ! The Switch is going strong still ^^



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909