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Nintendo Switch in Japan: 2018 vs. 2019 - Final Results

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Amnesia said:
Strange, so everything has been so far up by 30-50% and now we see 0% with Pokemon Sw/Sh ?

The boost wasn't going to be as big as it was last year because a sizable portion of the Pokemon fanbase already had the Switch thanks to Let's Go. Those games basically took a chunk of the boost that Sword/Shield would have gotten this year if it was the first Pokemon games on the system, and moved it to last year. The fact that it's essentially flat is win for 2019 in my view. I thought it was going to be slightly down, but it's maintaining pace. The REAL challenge now will be December.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

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PAOerfulone said:
Amnesia said:
Strange, so everything has been so far up by 30-50% and now we see 0% with Pokemon Sw/Sh ?

The boost wasn't going to be as big as it was last year because a sizable portion of the Pokemon fanbase already had the Switch thanks to Let's Go. Those games basically took a chunk of the boost that Sword/Shield would have gotten this year if it was the first Pokemon games on the system, and moved it to last year. The fact that it's essentially flat is win for 2019 in my view. I thought it was going to be slightly down, but it's maintaining pace. The REAL challenge now will be December.

Still. SW/SH sold twice as much as Let's Go in the first 3 days. And there is the Switch Lite now. So i'm a bit disappointed it's perfectly flat.

But I guess some of this week's boost has been taken by the release of the Pokemon version of the Switch Lite two weeks ago.



It is really weird to see Switch sales practically identical this year for Let's Go vs Sword/Shield.



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 9m, Switch - 22.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m

Last year had the Pokemon Let's Go & Smash Ultimate bundles release and those played a big part.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

PAOerfulone said:
Amnesia said:
Strange, so everything has been so far up by 30-50% and now we see 0% with Pokemon Sw/Sh ?

The boost wasn't going to be as big as it was last year because a sizable portion of the Pokemon fanbase already had the Switch thanks to Let's Go. Those games basically took a chunk of the boost that Sword/Shield would have gotten this year if it was the first Pokemon games on the system, and moved it to last year. The fact that it's essentially flat is win for 2019 in my view. I thought it was going to be slightly down, but it's maintaining pace. The REAL challenge now will be December.

People could buy the special edition Switch Lite with Pokémon decals since week 44, so a portion of the Sword/Shield hardware boost had already happened before the release week of the game, hence the relatively low week 46.

And if what zorg1000 said is correct, last year's week 46 was inflated by Smash bundles going on sale early.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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PAOerfulone said:
Amnesia said:
Strange, so everything has been so far up by 30-50% and now we see 0% with Pokemon Sw/Sh ?

The boost wasn't going to be as big as it was last year because a sizable portion of the Pokemon fanbase already had the Switch thanks to Let's Go. Those games basically took a chunk of the boost that Sword/Shield would have gotten this year if it was the first Pokemon games on the system, and moved it to last year. The fact that it's essentially flat is win for 2019 in my view. I thought it was going to be slightly down, but it's maintaining pace. The REAL challenge now will be December.

So does this mean that there is only one potential full boost for the Switch, which will be Animal Crossing ? Because then, except an eventual new Pikmin, there is nothing left to attract new players who doesn't have already a Switch.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TI MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.

Amnesia said:
PAOerfulone said:

The boost wasn't going to be as big as it was last year because a sizable portion of the Pokemon fanbase already had the Switch thanks to Let's Go. Those games basically took a chunk of the boost that Sword/Shield would have gotten this year if it was the first Pokemon games on the system, and moved it to last year. The fact that it's essentially flat is win for 2019 in my view. I thought it was going to be slightly down, but it's maintaining pace. The REAL challenge now will be December.

So does this mean that there is only one potential full boost for the Switch, which will be Animal Crossing ? Because then, except an eventual new Pikmin, there is nothing left to attract new players who doesn't have already a Switch.

That's not how console sales works. The 3DS had only Super Smash Bros. for 3DS left after Pokémon X/Y as all other big Nintendo IPs had already been released for the 3DS, but another ~11m in hardware sales got added to the ~13m that had been sold by the time X/Y launched. In other words, there's no need to worry that Switch could sell less than 20m lifetime in Japan, because that's simply not going to happen.

Pikmin doesn't do anything worth mentioning for hardware sales, so it shouldn't even be brought up.

The line of thinking that "nothing is left" doesn't make sense for two big reasons:

1. Sequels to big IPs also push hardware sales.

2. Nintendo can create new IPs that attract new players. See: Ring Fit Adventure.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
Amnesia said:

So does this mean that there is only one potential full boost for the Switch, which will be Animal Crossing ? Because then, except an eventual new Pikmin, there is nothing left to attract new players who doesn't have already a Switch.

That's not how console sales works. The 3DS had only Super Smash Bros. for 3DS left after Pokémon X/Y as all other big Nintendo IPs had already been released for the 3DS, but another ~11m in hardware sales got added to the ~13m that had been sold by the time X/Y launched. In other words, there's no need to worry that Switch could sell less than 20m lifetime in Japan, because that's simply not going to happen.

Pikmin doesn't do anything worth mentioning for hardware sales, so it shouldn't even be brought up.

The line of thinking that "nothing is left" doesn't make sense for two big reasons:

1. Sequels to big IPs also push hardware sales.

2. Nintendo can create new IPs that attract new players. See: Ring Fit Adventure.

The only thing I worry about is the 3rd party support, especially on the side of the higher tier Japanese developers. With all the success stories surrounding Switch, companies like Capcom are kinda dragging their feet when it comes to supporting Switch with new games (not ports of old games). Games like Granblue Fantasy Vs., Guilty Gear 2020, Project Sakura Wars, etc. are not coming to Switch or even hinted of possibly even being ported to Switch. I know there are games like NMH3, Digimon Survive, and the Trials of Mana remake coming to Switch, but I think there is potential for more, especially now that the userbase is going to be more than sizable enough that bigger companies can't ignore.



RolStoppable said:
Amnesia said:

So does this mean that there is only one potential full boost for the Switch, which will be Animal Crossing ? Because then, except an eventual new Pikmin, there is nothing left to attract new players who doesn't have already a Switch.

That's not how console sales works. The 3DS had only Super Smash Bros. for 3DS left after Pokémon X/Y as all other big Nintendo IPs had already been released for the 3DS, but another ~11m in hardware sales got added to the ~13m that had been sold by the time X/Y launched. In other words, there's no need to worry that Switch could sell less than 20m lifetime in Japan, because that's simply not going to happen.

Pikmin doesn't do anything worth mentioning for hardware sales, so it shouldn't even be brought up.

The line of thinking that "nothing is left" doesn't make sense for two big reasons:

1. Sequels to big IPs also push hardware sales.

2. Nintendo can create new IPs that attract new players. See: Ring Fit Adventure.

1 : WHO really, who doesn't have a Switch, and who was not enough interested by Zelda, will suddenly think : "omg the new sequel of Breath of the Wild is awesome, I want a Switch !!

well, I have an answer : me, so far I only have the Wii U that I bought in end of 2017 just for Zelda, but we are marginal in this situation.

2 : You mean like ARMS and Astral Chain ?...



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TI MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.

Kai_Mao said:

The only thing I worry about is the 3rd party support, especially on the side of the higher tier Japanese developers. With all the success stories surrounding Switch, companies like Capcom are kinda dragging their feet when it comes to supporting Switch with new games (not ports of old games). Games like Granblue Fantasy Vs., Guilty Gear 2020, Project Sakura Wars, etc. are not coming to Switch or even hinted of possibly even being ported to Switch. I know there are games like NMH3, Digimon Survive, and the Trials of Mana remake coming to Switch, but I think there is potential for more, especially now that the userbase is going to be more than sizable enough that bigger companies can't ignore.

Capcom can't be helped and the same will probably continue to hold true to varying degrees for the other big publishers. Square-Enix has at least committed as much as keeping the Octopath Traveler studio on Switch games and their Tokyo RPG factory is multiplat anyway; chances are that they start to dump Kingdom Hearts ports on Switch too. Dragon Quest XII should be a given. Atlus has stuck with the 3DS for a long time, but they obviously have to move on.

Overall, I don't think these publishers are important enough to really harm Switch with their lack of support, because the smaller publishers have already included Switch in their game development. Support will improve over time, but third parties on the whole won't make use of the full potential that's there.

Amnesia said:
RolStoppable said:

That's not how console sales works. The 3DS had only Super Smash Bros. for 3DS left after Pokémon X/Y as all other big Nintendo IPs had already been released for the 3DS, but another ~11m in hardware sales got added to the ~13m that had been sold by the time X/Y launched. In other words, there's no need to worry that Switch could sell less than 20m lifetime in Japan, because that's simply not going to happen.

Pikmin doesn't do anything worth mentioning for hardware sales, so it shouldn't even be brought up.

The line of thinking that "nothing is left" doesn't make sense for two big reasons:

1. Sequels to big IPs also push hardware sales.

2. Nintendo can create new IPs that attract new players. See: Ring Fit Adventure.

1 : WHO really, who doesn't have a Switch, and who was not enough interested by Zelda, will suddenly think : "omg the new sequel of Breath of the Wild is awesome, I want a Switch !!

well, I have an answer : me, so far I only have the Wii U that I bought in end of 2017 just for Zelda, but we are marginal in this situation.

2 : You mean like ARMS and Astral Chain ?...

1. I refer you back to the post of mine that you quoted. The 3DS sold another 11m units with next to nothing left. That's close to half of its lifetime sales.

2. I named Ring Fit Adventure as an example, so why do you even ask?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club