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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Switch in Japan: 2018 vs. 2019 - Final Results

Any November numbers?



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Just updated the list again with the latest Famitsu numbers with Pokemon Sword/Shield's launch.
My apologies for the LONG delay. I've had to deal with various circumstances and Rol has been regular updating a list of his own on all the Famitsu threads, so I figured, "Eh, he's taking care of it. I'm in no rush."

But anyways, this year is basically flat, just slightly down from last year in comparison to Pokemon Let's Go.



Strange, so everything has been so far up by 30-50% and now we see 0% with Pokemon Sw/Sh ?



Amnesia said:
Strange, so everything has been so far up by 30-50% and now we see 0% with Pokemon Sw/Sh ?

The boost wasn't going to be as big as it was last year because a sizable portion of the Pokemon fanbase already had the Switch thanks to Let's Go. Those games basically took a chunk of the boost that Sword/Shield would have gotten this year if it was the first Pokemon games on the system, and moved it to last year. The fact that it's essentially flat is win for 2019 in my view. I thought it was going to be slightly down, but it's maintaining pace. The REAL challenge now will be December.



PAOerfulone said:
Amnesia said:
Strange, so everything has been so far up by 30-50% and now we see 0% with Pokemon Sw/Sh ?

The boost wasn't going to be as big as it was last year because a sizable portion of the Pokemon fanbase already had the Switch thanks to Let's Go. Those games basically took a chunk of the boost that Sword/Shield would have gotten this year if it was the first Pokemon games on the system, and moved it to last year. The fact that it's essentially flat is win for 2019 in my view. I thought it was going to be slightly down, but it's maintaining pace. The REAL challenge now will be December.

Still. SW/SH sold twice as much as Let's Go in the first 3 days. And there is the Switch Lite now. So i'm a bit disappointed it's perfectly flat.

But I guess some of this week's boost has been taken by the release of the Pokemon version of the Switch Lite two weeks ago.



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It is really weird to see Switch sales practically identical this year for Let's Go vs Sword/Shield.



Last year had the Pokemon Let's Go & Smash Ultimate bundles release and those played a big part.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

PAOerfulone said:
Amnesia said:
Strange, so everything has been so far up by 30-50% and now we see 0% with Pokemon Sw/Sh ?

The boost wasn't going to be as big as it was last year because a sizable portion of the Pokemon fanbase already had the Switch thanks to Let's Go. Those games basically took a chunk of the boost that Sword/Shield would have gotten this year if it was the first Pokemon games on the system, and moved it to last year. The fact that it's essentially flat is win for 2019 in my view. I thought it was going to be slightly down, but it's maintaining pace. The REAL challenge now will be December.

So does this mean that there is only one potential full boost for the Switch, which will be Animal Crossing ? Because then, except an eventual new Pikmin, there is nothing left to attract new players who doesn't have already a Switch.



RolStoppable said:
Amnesia said:

So does this mean that there is only one potential full boost for the Switch, which will be Animal Crossing ? Because then, except an eventual new Pikmin, there is nothing left to attract new players who doesn't have already a Switch.

That's not how console sales works. The 3DS had only Super Smash Bros. for 3DS left after Pokémon X/Y as all other big Nintendo IPs had already been released for the 3DS, but another ~11m in hardware sales got added to the ~13m that had been sold by the time X/Y launched. In other words, there's no need to worry that Switch could sell less than 20m lifetime in Japan, because that's simply not going to happen.

Pikmin doesn't do anything worth mentioning for hardware sales, so it shouldn't even be brought up.

The line of thinking that "nothing is left" doesn't make sense for two big reasons:

1. Sequels to big IPs also push hardware sales.

2. Nintendo can create new IPs that attract new players. See: Ring Fit Adventure.

The only thing I worry about is the 3rd party support, especially on the side of the higher tier Japanese developers. With all the success stories surrounding Switch, companies like Capcom are kinda dragging their feet when it comes to supporting Switch with new games (not ports of old games). Games like Granblue Fantasy Vs., Guilty Gear 2020, Project Sakura Wars, etc. are not coming to Switch or even hinted of possibly even being ported to Switch. I know there are games like NMH3, Digimon Survive, and the Trials of Mana remake coming to Switch, but I think there is potential for more, especially now that the userbase is going to be more than sizable enough that bigger companies can't ignore.



RolStoppable said:
Amnesia said:

So does this mean that there is only one potential full boost for the Switch, which will be Animal Crossing ? Because then, except an eventual new Pikmin, there is nothing left to attract new players who doesn't have already a Switch.

That's not how console sales works. The 3DS had only Super Smash Bros. for 3DS left after Pokémon X/Y as all other big Nintendo IPs had already been released for the 3DS, but another ~11m in hardware sales got added to the ~13m that had been sold by the time X/Y launched. In other words, there's no need to worry that Switch could sell less than 20m lifetime in Japan, because that's simply not going to happen.

Pikmin doesn't do anything worth mentioning for hardware sales, so it shouldn't even be brought up.

The line of thinking that "nothing is left" doesn't make sense for two big reasons:

1. Sequels to big IPs also push hardware sales.

2. Nintendo can create new IPs that attract new players. See: Ring Fit Adventure.

1 : WHO really, who doesn't have a Switch, and who was not enough interested by Zelda, will suddenly think : "omg the new sequel of Breath of the Wild is awesome, I want a Switch !!

well, I have an answer : me, so far I only have the Wii U that I bought in end of 2017 just for Zelda, but we are marginal in this situation.

2 : You mean like ARMS and Astral Chain ?...