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Nintendo Switch in Japan: 2018 vs. 2019 - Week 33 Numbers Posted

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Bofferbrauer2 said:
PAOerfulone said:
With the announcement of the Nintendo Switch Lite, it's going to be very interesting to see how the next 11-12 weeks of data will play out. Obviously, we can expect to the Switch baseline to dip pretty low as many consumers are now going to hold on their purchase and wait for the Switch Lite. The only questions are: How low? And did Nintendo announce the Switch Lite too early?

Since the preorders ain't up yet, I just expect a moderate loss of speed for now. However, once you can order the Switch Lite, sales should tank for a while... and then go through the roof once the Lite is out.

I expect the lead to shrink only to about 200-250k until the Lite comes out, but regrow very quickly afterwards

That's quite the drop you expect, an average of 10-15k units per week under last year's sales over the course of the next ten weeks.

I am not even sure if the current lead of ~350k units will be lower in ten weeks time because Japan's preference for handheld consoles tends to be overstated. The original Switch may cost more, but it also doubles as home console, so it will remain appealing. Fire Emblem: Three Houses is coming up, so weekly sales should remain above last year's weekly sales or at least hover right around last year's weekly sales in the coming next ten weeks.



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RolStoppable said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Since the preorders ain't up yet, I just expect a moderate loss of speed for now. However, once you can order the Switch Lite, sales should tank for a while... and then go through the roof once the Lite is out.

I expect the lead to shrink only to about 200-250k until the Lite comes out, but regrow very quickly afterwards

That's quite the drop you expect, an average of 10-15k units per week under last year's sales over the course of the next ten weeks.

I am not even sure if the current lead of ~350k units will be lower in ten weeks time because Japan's preference for handheld consoles tends to be overstated. The original Switch may cost more, but it also doubles as home console, so it will remain appealing. Fire Emblem: Three Houses is coming up, so weekly sales should remain above last year's weekly sales or at least hover right around last year's weekly sales in the coming next ten weeks.

I didn't check last year's sales when I wrote that. After having a good look at the numbers, I agree that that's too much of a drop, and I didn't take FE:TH into account. So now I rather think it will drop to about 300k, and that pretty much all of it comes from after Obon week (I also expect Nintendo to open preorders only right after Obon week to not loose out sales that week).

350k is possible if FE pushes high enough to compensate for all the "lost" sales until the new model comes out, maybe even more than that. I guess we'll have to wait and see for the results.



It looks like 2019 is going to win over 2018 now .



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I like how the Switch randomly posted its third highest weekly sales for the year. I think with Mario Maker, momentum should start building its way up from now till Pokemon. 4m is in sight. I think the last home console to do that was the PS2, though I'm not even sure it did that



YNWA

Just added Week 28 numbers. No noticeable dip in Switch purchases after the Switch Lite announced. It looks like the standard drop after the release of a new system selling title (Mario Maker 2). Now is when it gets interesting since the next week is when the announcement of the upgraded OG Switch model.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

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Next two weeks are probably going to be down compared to last year, and then up due to Fire Emblem. The big question will by by how much the newly announced models will affect those sales. I don't expect too much of an effect yet since you can't preorder them yet, but once those preorders start then the sales will dip alot harder imo.



I agree. It won't be too bad in the weeks leading up to Obon week. I think Nintendo might do some deals or discounts on the old OG Switch models just to clear inventory for the new models + Switch Lite. But once Obon week passes and Switch Lite preorders go up. Then we're really gonna see a dip.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

I'd be fun if the system could hold a parity status with last year for the next weeks until the release of the Lite model :)



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45k, so what it gained last week, it's mostly losing again this week



The fact that it's only 6K-7K down over last year when we take into account the Switch Lite announcement is quite impressive still :3



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