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Nintendo Switch in Japan: 2018 vs. 2019 - Week 33 Numbers Posted

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forest-spirit said:

So out of the last six weeks Switch has been down four times and the total for this period is -8.460 units. As for the last three weeks it has been down three times in a row but not by a significant amount and the numbers have improved for each week. Add to that that all this has done to the YoY difference is changing the lead from 344.490 to 336.030 and the fact that bigger titles will start to drop in a few weeks beginning with Mario Maker 2 and I'd say things look quite positive.

The next two weeks can be expected to be down year over year, because last year's E3 had lots of SSBU info that this year's E3 isn't matching with any title. A deficit of ~20k units for the next two weeks combined wouldn't be surprising. But then Super Mario Maker 2 hits and last year's baseline should be matched or exceeded, so your conclusion is correct.

The release of Dragon Quest XI S will help to make this year's September and October better than last year's even without a price cut or revision. If neither a price cut or revision happens in 2019, then I expect Switch to finish between 3.6-3.8m for the year because a new Pokémon is no match for a Pokémon remake and a new SSB; so basically weaker sales in December that will eat away at the lead that has been built priorily. With a price cut and/or revision, I expect 4m+ for the year.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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Special Thanks and Gratitude to Rolstoppable for providing full data on Famitsu from last year in addition to this year.
The numbers have been adjusted to provide a completely accurate, 1:1, comparison.
This is now a pure Famitsu comparison!



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

PAOerfulone said:
Special Thanks and Gratitude to Rolstoppable for providing full data on Famitsu from last year in addition to this year.
The numbers have been adjusted to provide a completely accurate, 1:1, comparison.
This is now a pure Famitsu comparison!

Media Create :



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

34k, slightly more than last week, but 10k below last year.

It's high time that SMM2 and YW4 end the drought for the Switch.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 19 June 2019

Just posted Week 24 numbers.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

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Well that hurts ... until SMM2 releases in two weeks ! Or maybe even Yokai Watch 4, who knows ?



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Mar1217 said:
Well that hurts ... until SMM2 releases in two weeks ! Or maybe even Yokai Watch 4, who knows ?

Probably not with YW4, as Nintendo also announced a promotion already for the week after it's release, so that will certainly steal some sales even though it's not massive (a 3000 Yen gift card for free when buying a console - so essentially 30$/€ off). In fact, it's possible that sales will drop WoW because of this despite the YW4 release.

On the other hand, SMM2+Promotion the week after means that there will be a big boost in sales then.



RolStoppable said:
forest-spirit said:

So out of the last six weeks Switch has been down four times and the total for this period is -8.460 units. As for the last three weeks it has been down three times in a row but not by a significant amount and the numbers have improved for each week. Add to that that all this has done to the YoY difference is changing the lead from 344.490 to 336.030 and the fact that bigger titles will start to drop in a few weeks beginning with Mario Maker 2 and I'd say things look quite positive.

The next two weeks can be expected to be down year over year, because last year's E3 had lots of SSBU info that this year's E3 isn't matching with any title. A deficit of ~20k units for the next two weeks combined wouldn't be surprising. But then Super Mario Maker 2 hits and last year's baseline should be matched or exceeded, so your conclusion is correct.

The release of Dragon Quest XI S will help to make this year's September and October better than last year's even without a price cut or revision. If neither a price cut or revision happens in 2019, then I expect Switch to finish between 3.6-3.8m for the year because a new Pokémon is no match for a Pokémon remake and a new SSB; so basically weaker sales in December that will eat away at the lead that has been built priorily. With a price cut and/or revision, I expect 4m+ for the year.

But probably stronger than either of those on it's own. So it just needs another big release during that time to get similar results to last year.

Speaking of which, how do the Mario & Sonic at the Olympic games series fare in Japan? Could they bring in at least some of the needed boost to equal last year's sales? How about Luigi's Mansion?

I understand neither of those two is as big as a Pokemon or Smash title, but couldn't they reach a similar effect, when taken together? Especially since I expect the baseline to be somewhat higher from the game releases in late summer.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

But probably stronger than either of those on it's own. So it just needs another big release during that time to get similar results to last year.

Speaking of which, how do the Mario & Sonic at the Olympic games series fare in Japan? Could they bring in at least some of the needed boost to equal last year's sales? How about Luigi's Mansion?

I understand neither of those two is as big as a Pokemon or Smash title, but couldn't they reach a similar effect, when taken together? Especially since I expect the baseline to be somewhat higher from the game releases in late summer.

Both of those two put together are not even half as big as Pokemon or Smash Bros.

Luigi's Mansion 2 did somewhere around 1.1-1.4 million in Japan. The highest that Mario and Sonic ever reached over there was around 440k, and that was on the DS - the highest selling system of all time in Japan. Rio 2016 did close to 300k on the 3DS.

Don't get me wrong, those are good, respectable numbers for a sports spinoff/crossover, but certainly not something that could sell consoles. 
Luigi's Mansion 3 would be doing a lot of the heavy lifting and I think that people will certainly buy Switch units to play that game, but nowhere near the amount that would buy one for Pokemon or Smash Bros.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

PAOerfulone said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

But probably stronger than either of those on it's own. So it just needs another big release during that time to get similar results to last year.

Speaking of which, how do the Mario & Sonic at the Olympic games series fare in Japan? Could they bring in at least some of the needed boost to equal last year's sales? How about Luigi's Mansion?

I understand neither of those two is as big as a Pokemon or Smash title, but couldn't they reach a similar effect, when taken together? Especially since I expect the baseline to be somewhat higher from the game releases in late summer.

Both of those two put together are not even half as big as Pokemon or Smash Bros.

Luigi's Mansion 2 did somewhere around 1.1-1.4 million in Japan. The highest that Mario and Sonic ever reached over there was around 440k, and that was on the DS - the highest selling system of all time in Japan. Rio 2016 did close to 300k on the 3DS.

Don't get me wrong, those are good, respectable numbers for a sports spinoff/crossover, but certainly not something that could sell consoles. 
Luigi's Mansion 3 would be doing a lot of the heavy lifting and I think that people will certainly buy Switch units to play that game, but nowhere near the amount that would buy one for Pokemon or Smash Bros.

Speaking of Pokemon, do you think Sword and Shield will do much better than PLG?